WI: Franz Josef was more liberal?

I'm sure the topic of Austria-Hungary and it's politics have been discussed to death on here, and there are many timelines as well that deal with the empire following a more liberal line rather than it did IOTL, with changes such as Maximilian becoming Emperor or Franz Josef being succeeded by his son Rudolf.

But what if Franz Josef was actually more liberal himself? Granted, he wasn't terribly autocratic, but he was definitely a product of his time, traditional, conservative, and old fashioned. He was very close to his grandfather, Franz I and the events of 1848 certainly had some effect on him too. His marriage was also an ill match, considering the Empress Sisi was everything he wasn't -- a dreamer, liberal, and impulsive. He was also reared from the time of his birth as future Emperor, given his father was unambitious and the mental capacities of his uncle, Ferdinand IV.

What if Franz Josef had different characteristics than his OTL counterpart that result in him having a different outlook? Given how dependent he was on his mother even after he became Emperor, it may help (however tragic) if she dies while she is young, perhaps after giving birth to him or his brother Maximilian. Perhaps a different education as well; almost all Habsburg Archdukes served in the military, as the Franz Josef himself was made a Colonel at 13 and even served under Radetzsky in Italy, receiving his first baptism of fire. This would likely still happen, but perhaps this Franz Josef views army life with more disdain rather than with the gusto he did for the remainder of his life IOTL, always wearing army fashion and the uniform of an officer.

Once 1848 hits and he becomes Emperor, this is where we can make some changes. Being so young and without guidance from his mother, he'd likely lean on his ministers; I see no reason why his first Minister-President wouldn't be the one who served IOTL, Prince Schwarzenberg, whose ministery included liberal allies such as Alexander von Bach, Karl Ludwig von Bruck and Anton von Schmerling and even a Bohemian Federalist, Leopold von Thun und Hohenstein.

One big change is the Constitution of 1849 which was granted under Schwarzenberg's guidance and that Franz Josef felt free to toss away once the Hungarians and the Sardinians had been crushed and authority restored over the Austrian Empire might actually stick. This could have effects on the Italian front as well, as it was largely the Austrian successes that caused many Italian leaders who were initially reformers, such as Leopold II of Tuscany and Pope Pius IX to renege on their promises.

I'm not sure what Franz Josef can really do in that situation: Sardinia will still end up losing against Austria, and the Italians will still hate Austrian dominance no matter what. He can make some moves towards reforms in Lombardy-Veneto, but it'd definitely still be within the framework of the empire, not of it. So no matter what, in regards to Italy, Austria is still in a very hard place, but it could effect the careers of Leopold II and even Pius IX, and perhaps they don't go back on their original reformist visisions, giving the Italians multiple options of unification, rather than just looking to the House of Savoy. Dividing the movement is really the best thing Austria can do, other than hoping the Tuscan Grand Duke becomes a popular option for King of Italy (seems pretty unlikely) or unification ultimately results in a relatively decentralized Italian Federation or something of that sort.

Hungary is also tricky, as calling in the Tsar to help is a bad idea. With realpolitik, Franz Josef could definitely do it regardless, but putting down the uprising without the use of foreign force would go a long way of (eventually) reconciling the Hungarians. It might take longer though (we could see the revolt carry into 1850, which poses the risk of Hungary gaining sympathy abroad). In 1849 there aren't going to be any compromises, but if Franz Josef uses the carrot and the stick when the revolt is crushed, it'll make things easier. Not involving the Russians also won't sour things when the Crimean War happens, as they won't be expecting Austrian help.

So, after the mess of 1848, what comes next? Schwarzenberg died IOTL, but perhaps butterflies can help him live a bit longer, as he was definitely an efficient Minister-President and could get things done. How does Italy play out, and more importantly, where does the Habsburg Empire go from there? Does it end up a centralized state with one common Parliament with autonomy for the various crowns that make it up, a federation of states, or a warped form of power sharing between the four main crowns of the empire: Austria, Hungary, Bohemia, and Croatia (with it being given Dalamatia)? Franz Josef ending up as Emperor of Großdeutschland with Hungary gaining it's independence and Galicia, along with Croatia in a personal union (and a Habsburg Prince as their King to boot?) Or maybe it still rots and decays just like IOTL?

International relations are also interesting and I wonder how they would turn out. Schwarzenberg was a supporter of an Austro-German federation, but also wished to included the Austrian territories outside the Confederation, which frankly, is never going to happen. Schwarzenberg pulled all the Austrian delegates from the Frankfurt Parliament anyways. Bismarck may still rise to power in Prussia, and if Schwarzenberg lives longer, it'd be interesting to see how those two personalities clash, because just because Franz Josef ends up more liberal, doesn't mean Austria's army would be more prepared. I'm more interested in the politics more than anything, rather than a more liberal Franz Josef leading a Großdeutschland.
 
Archduchess Sophie was surely the most important person in her son life and was likely her to take all the most important decisions about the life of her sons and she was also the strongest member of the immediate imperial family during all the reign of her brother-in-law... If she will die when her sons are small this will surely have an huge impact on their lives... If one of her three last pregnancies or childbirths (in 1835, 1840 and 1842) or some illness kill her young surely all the Imperial Family will afflicted and changed to this event.
Her husband maybe will remarry or maybe not, because Sophie had already assured the succession with three sons (Franz Joseph born in 1830, Maximilian born in 1832 and Karl Ludwig in 1833) but in any case the butterflies on her sons lives (education and also their choice of brides) and on the Empire will be huge...
 

ingemann

Banned
I don't think a more liberal Franz Josef will change the losses in the 19th century. Where the difference will come, will be the development of Austria in the aftermatch. If Austria have beaten the Hungarians on their own in 1848(-1850+), we will likely not see a the autonomy of Hungary after the loss to Prussia. Another big change is that Josef will likely push a land reform in Hungary (and likely in Galicia too) in the aftermatch of the Hungarian rebellion. That will ensure the vast bulk of the Hungarian population will love him. Economic such a land reform will also radical change Hungary and make it much more like Austria and Bohemia, as we will see the development of a large rural middle class. Of course it will also result in lower wheat production, but increase cattle and dairy production will make up for it.
Hungarian nationalism will likely be broken for decades as the the aristrocracy who to large extent was the face of it have lost all legitimacy and the Habsburgs will be seen as liberators. Of course Hungarian nationalism will pop up again, together with other national movements. But Franz Josef's personal popularity may extent to create a kind of Great Austrian nationalism (like Swiss nationalism).
Another aspect with a more liberal mindset and greater support from the common Austrian, Franz Josef will likely be more activistic in the development of industry and infrastructure. We may see the canal from the Danube and Rhine to Po through Tyrol, which would be a pure money maker, but also give Austria a great military help for Austria in case of war with Italy. We may also see the Oder, Elbe, Vistula and Donau being connected with canal, which would increase the productivity of Bohemia, Galicia and Austria proper.
Military without having to deal with the Hungarians, we may see the army reforms and increase funding. Austria's army budget, while growing in absolut terms, fell compared to the GDP from 1867-1914, mostly caused by the Hungarians vetoing increase military spending. Of course we will likely see lower naval spending, but that may be a blessing in disguise, as it may make the Austrians going for the most bang for the money, so they avoid useless battleship and go for smaller more efficient ships.
 
If Franz Joseph were a Liberal, then the extension of the franchise would have been likely to have been delayed. The Austrian Liberal Party viewed the wider populace, like the Hungarian parties, as unready to be allowed to govern, until an environment similar to that of an idealised Britain was created. It also assumed that German was the natural language of the Empire, as the majority of its bourgeois electorate spoke it, and considered it a language of high culture. One could see semi-colonial viewpoints creep through, that it is necessary to civilise the Slavs, and other non-Germans, although the Poles, and Hungarians, as historic peoples, might be able to escape the worst of it.

If the government were to undertake more radical land reforms, in an attempt to break those who had rebelled against the throne, then it would target the lower nobility, and gentry, as the upper nobility had been co-opted by the Dynasty. This would destroy, or severely weaken, Hungarian, and Polish, proto-nationalism. This might deprive the mostly German speaking urban populace of its incentive to adopt Hungarian, although eventually, as the countryside empties, due to the industrial revolution, most of the cities shall become predominantly Magyar, like in Bohemia for Czech. If the Germans can monopolise bourgeois culture, they shall be expanded greatly, as most educated Magyars spoke German, unlike vice versa, and would thus identify themselves as German, in order to gain the social prestige. I'd imagine that Hungary would become a mixture between Bohemia, and the non-Magyar Hungarian lands, in regards to the language question. Hungary would also be poorer, due to the lack of a strong government to fight for her cause,and the Empire would presumably become more Vienna-centic than OTL. Hungarian nationalism would also be weakened by a lack of Empress Elizabeth, as she was one of its foremost advocates, and used her emotional connection with Franz Joseph in order to pressure him into accepting the Ausgleich.

Another important factor would be the assimilation of the Jews. IOTL, depending upon where they were located in the Empire, the Jewish bourgeoisie assimilated into either German, or Hungarian elite culture. In this situation, German would be the preferable option, due to its universal primacy. A Liberal government would presumably react favorably to Jewish assimilation, but popular antisemitism amongst the working class still seems likely to occur, which the Liberals would do little to mitigate, due to their refusal to engage with the lower classes.

The Army would be less well funded, as both Liberal parties in the Dual Monarchy preferred a smaller army, due to their commitment to a balanced budget. This could make a difference to the Italian political scene in the aftermath of 1848, as should it become obvious that Austria has neither the will, nor the capability to restore them should they be deposed, the Italian elites may be more inclined to compromise with their subjects' wishes, although, considering how popular the Risorgimento was in Italy, this may be too little to save them. Lombardy, and Venetia are likely to remain disaffected with Austrian rule, despite being the best run provinces in Italy. The nobility shall remain unhappy with the requirement to present 16 noble ancestors, in order to be presented at court, and the intelligentsia is inalienably in favour. To a certain extent, Austria can be expected to rest upon her laurels in Germany, and Italy, due to her historical primacy, which she will expect to continue. Upon the other hand, a Liberal Austria is likely to have better relations with the Second French Empire, and worse with Russia, and Prussia. The butterflies could lead to a Liberal Prussia, however, as if von Bismark never rises to power, then parliament could be victorious in its confrontation with the king, leading to a reduction in the military budget.

If a German Liberal bourgeoisie becomes the glue which holds the Habsburg Monarchy together, rather than dynastic loyalty, then once the franchise is increased the Empire shall become more fragile, as it would be less inclusive. Although the peasantry shall remain loyal no matter the circumstances, without the Imperial championing of the democratic rights of the people, the Dynasty will lose much of its support amongst the working classes. Franz Joseph would no longer be viewed as the ''father of the people'', but instead as the benefactor, and protector of elite governance. In such an empire, class, and ethnicity would become merged into one issue, and in both, the Dynasty has failed to be impartial. Should a repeat of 1848 take place, the Army, should it succeed in subjugating the nationalities, will desire a more conservative, absolutist policy. Although the officer corps were paragons of Dynastic loyalty, they will be immensely dissatisfied with a Liberal, anti-military emperor.
 
I agree that a more liberal Emperor isn't likely to change any military loses. The mention of land reform is interesting though. The 1848 revolution finally saw serfdom abolished, but the state essentially compensated the aristocracy. This was not a huge issue in Austria and Bohemia, as while there were landed estates, small holders were more common, although in Galicia the reform had a major effect. One issue may be the changes to the reform may be a more liberal land reform as stated, where the aristocracy is required to pay compensation, rather than the state picking up the bill. It would alienate the landowners, of course, but empowering the peasantry and smallholders could create a new bulwark of support for the regime.
 
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