It might actually break faster. The moment FF tries to federalise the empire, Hungary will secede triggering a civil war. Germany and Russia (along with Romania and Serbia) intervene and the Empire is partitioned. FF, if he survives becomes King of Austria inside the German Empire. WWI - perhaps butterflied for the moment.
revolution is only in the cards if FF acts stupidly and rash (which to my shame I once tried in a - now deadTL - another better though out I hope will follow
).
Change must come and will come
1896 (or 1898 as my TL) offers the opportunity the many appeasement decisions by FJ - to most of them FF was strongly opposed.
Federalistation might be a pipe dream for the immediate future, but FF was not stupid. Slow reform - especially for the north and south slavs. The Habsburgs were able to bind the (galician) Poles to the Monarchy and the Croats were compartively loyal. Even OTL some Czech Parties were loyal to the Monarchy (Socilaists and National Liberals - both were relative new and rising while the JungCzechs were declining around 1910). A clever Policy within the Austrian half of the dual Monarchy might be a lever to do a (later) reform in the Hungarian half too (THE Hungarian electoral system was one of the most unfair in Europe, so if done cleverly a reform might slowly shift power from teh MAgnates to "other" parties.
FF was recognizing the signs of the day and wanted to prevent war (but he knew a strong military is necessary)
FF was quite strong willed and stood to once made decisions - if he thought them to be the correct ones. This might be a boon and a bane. HE would not make foul compromise, but sometimes he will antagionize even friends. You can assume that his wife will have a great deal of Influence as will have his Stepmother Maria Terese of Portugal. I doubt they will make political decisions, but will be a stabilizing influence (Maria Terese was also one of the few that supported him in his decision to Marry Sophie Chotek)
I dont have nearly as good an opinion of FF as you. To make the federalization a sucess you need a leader with a lot of patience and diplomatic sense. FF managed to antagonise the hungarians even as a prince - thats not a good start to say the least. And i dont know how great a role he played at the planning of his visit in Sarajevo but provoking the serbs like that basically asked for a asassination attempt. Not a good move either. And i have heard opinions that said that his federalization idea was more about him gaining absolut or near absolut power - easier to controll more smaller states than two big. I dont necesserily agree with them but i dont discard them either.
Franz Ferdinand would make a sinking ship sink faster. He had temper tamtrums with officials all the time, especially the Hungarians. One biography on him put it something like "He wanted to centralise his power as monarch through Federalism." Gotta love oxymoron political views.An example of him being combative towards the Hungarians on a particular matter can be read here. https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/22812/pdf/1/
Franz Ferdinand would make a sinking ship sink faster. He had temper tamtrums with officials all the time, especially the Hungarians. One biography on him put it something like "He wanted to centralise his power as monarch through Federalism." Gotta love oxymoron political views.
Paradoxical but not necessarily wrong.
It wasn't necessary for the nationalities to love the Habsburgs. Indeed, it was even ok for them to hate the Habsburgs - just as long as they hated each other more. And these "federal" schemes would create lots of opportunities for them to quarrel.
That's so untrue. Only the politicians of Russia (panslavism) and France believed that A-H was doomed and thus did everything to hasten it. in OTL A-H was stable until 1917!Franz Ferdinand would make a sinking ship sink faster. He had temper tamtrums with officials all the time, especially the Hungarians. One biography on him put it something like "He wanted to centralise his power as monarch through Federalism." Gotta love oxymoron political views.An example of him being combative towards the Hungarians on a particular matter can be read here. https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/22812/pdf/1/
Divide and rule, yes. But how long could an Emperor continue that delicate dance? I wouldn't know, but I don't think FF had a good personality for a course.
Others believe that the Ship only began to "sink" in 1917/1918![]()