WI: Franz Josef of Austria-Hungary dies earlier?

What if Franz Josef of Habsburg-Lorraine dies in 1896 and Franz Ferdinand of Habsburg-Este succeds him. Can the habsburgian realm survive?
 
It might actually break faster. The moment FF tries to federalise the empire, Hungary will secede triggering a civil war. Germany and Russia (along with Romania and Serbia) intervene and the Empire is partitioned. FF, if he survives becomes King of Austria inside the German Empire. WWI - perhaps butterflied for the moment.
 
If you saw his plans i dont think only Hungary will secede - i would count on a czech rebellion as well. The intervention is another question. Will the french do nothing while Germany devours Austria (with or without Bohemia)? And i dont think the british will like it either. And Russia gets what? Galicia with another few million polish whom they like so much? Do they want that? And would they agree to a partition like that? I mean that you cant really compare the value of Galicia and Austria(especially if you add Bohemia). Point is im not that sure about a partition by the great powers would happen.

To sum it up the Empire could survive if no one intervenes and the Austrians win the war (which is not likely but far from impossible). But that state would have no chance on the long run. The hungarians and czech would hate the state after their defeat, the italians, serbians and rumanians still have their own national state on the other side of the border and the polish still would want an independent Poland as soon as possible (and i could continue this list).
 
revolution is only in the cards if FF acts stupidly and rash (which to my shame I once tried in a - now dead ;) TL - another better though out I hope will follow :D).

Change must come and will come

1896 (or 1898 as my TL) offers the opportunity the many appeasement decisions by FJ - to most of them FF was strongly opposed.

Federalistation might be a pipe dream for the immediate future, but FF was not stupid. Slow reform - especially for the north and south slavs. The Habsburgs were able to bind the (galician) Poles to the Monarchy and the Croats were compartively loyal. Even OTL some Czech Parties were loyal to the Monarchy (Socilaists and National Liberals - both were relative new and rising while the JungCzechs were declining around 1910). A clever Policy within the Austrian half of the dual Monarchy might be a lever to do a (later) reform in the Hungarian half too (THE Hungarian electoral system was one of the most unfair in Europe, so if done cleverly a reform might slowly shift power from teh MAgnates to "other" parties.

FF was recognizing the signs of the day and wanted to prevent war (but he knew a strong military is necessary)

FF was quite strong willed and stood to once made decisions - if he thought them to be the correct ones. This might be a boon and a bane. HE would not make foul compromise, but sometimes he will antagionize even friends. You can assume that his wife will have a great deal of Influence as will have his Stepmother Maria Terese of Portugal. I doubt they will make political decisions, but will be a stabilizing influence (Maria Terese was also one of the few that supported him in his decision to Marry Sophie Chotek)
 
It might actually break faster. The moment FF tries to federalise the empire, Hungary will secede triggering a civil war. Germany and Russia (along with Romania and Serbia) intervene and the Empire is partitioned. FF, if he survives becomes King of Austria inside the German Empire. WWI - perhaps butterflied for the moment.

Austria-Hungary absent, I think Russo-German relations would be significantly better. Germany doesn't really give a fuck about Russian interests in the Balkans. Germany will have its hands full digesting what it gets from A-H (modern Austria, Sudetenland, Bohemia-Moravia, Sopron, Pressburg and modern Slovenia, most likely)

Maybe the German Foreign Office can undo some of Wilhelm II's bumbling and mend relations while driving a wedge between France and Russia, damaging their embryonic and rather unnatural 'Entente'. I'm sure the Russians would be pleased with a revival of the old Reinsurance Treaty.

Given that Wilhelm's naval ambitions are bound to alienate Britain, I can only see Russia and Germany getting closer and closer because of the age old adagium "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". Britain is standing in the way of Germany's imperialist, colonialist ambitions. Britain is also standing in the way of Russian designs on the Balkans, the Bosporus and the Middle East.

Also, Germany is an importer of Russian grain if I remember correctly. Besides that, Germany can provide Russia and its budding industrial development with the necessary technological skills and knowledge. In the meantime, German industry can make good use of Russian raw materials. I'm sure Krupp and others wouldn't mind some commercial treaties with Russia.

Besides that pesky alliance with France, which has outlived its usefullness, there's little standing in the way of the formation of a Russo-German power bloc, which could have significant potential, especially as Russia's economic growth takes off in the 1900s and 1910s.
 
revolution is only in the cards if FF acts stupidly and rash (which to my shame I once tried in a - now dead ;) TL - another better though out I hope will follow :D).

Change must come and will come

1896 (or 1898 as my TL) offers the opportunity the many appeasement decisions by FJ - to most of them FF was strongly opposed.

Federalistation might be a pipe dream for the immediate future, but FF was not stupid. Slow reform - especially for the north and south slavs. The Habsburgs were able to bind the (galician) Poles to the Monarchy and the Croats were compartively loyal. Even OTL some Czech Parties were loyal to the Monarchy (Socilaists and National Liberals - both were relative new and rising while the JungCzechs were declining around 1910). A clever Policy within the Austrian half of the dual Monarchy might be a lever to do a (later) reform in the Hungarian half too (THE Hungarian electoral system was one of the most unfair in Europe, so if done cleverly a reform might slowly shift power from teh MAgnates to "other" parties.

FF was recognizing the signs of the day and wanted to prevent war (but he knew a strong military is necessary)

FF was quite strong willed and stood to once made decisions - if he thought them to be the correct ones. This might be a boon and a bane. HE would not make foul compromise, but sometimes he will antagionize even friends. You can assume that his wife will have a great deal of Influence as will have his Stepmother Maria Terese of Portugal. I doubt they will make political decisions, but will be a stabilizing influence (Maria Terese was also one of the few that supported him in his decision to Marry Sophie Chotek)

I dont have nearly as good an opinion of FF as you. To make the federalization a sucess you need a leader with a lot of patience and diplomatic sense. FF managed to antagonise the hungarians even as a prince - thats not a good start to say the least. And i dont know how great a role he played at the planning of his visit in Sarajevo but provoking the serbs like that basically asked for a asassination attempt. Not a good move either. And i have heard opinions that said that his federalization idea was more about him gaining absolut or near absolut power - easier to controll more smaller states than two big. I dont necesserily agree with them but i dont discard them either.
 
I dont have nearly as good an opinion of FF as you. To make the federalization a sucess you need a leader with a lot of patience and diplomatic sense. FF managed to antagonise the hungarians even as a prince - thats not a good start to say the least. And i dont know how great a role he played at the planning of his visit in Sarajevo but provoking the serbs like that basically asked for a asassination attempt. Not a good move either. And i have heard opinions that said that his federalization idea was more about him gaining absolut or near absolut power - easier to controll more smaller states than two big. I dont necesserily agree with them but i dont discard them either.


I am basing my opinion about FF on a Biography of him read a year or two ago. Federalizing the empire was one (and soon discarded idea), but FF did perceive that a change was necessary - and yes the change was to give the "minorities" more rights at the cost of the "two" big parts and in the end giving more powert to the Emperor - the old "divide et impera" scheme - could have worked out, but would in the long run (decades) have develloped into a better A-H Empire.

OTL FF constantly fought for a modernisation and not yielding more to the Hungarians (but he stated himself that it was only the "magnates" he hated), but even if he seemed to have persuaded FJ it often was only a delaying action. So if he came to power 16-18 years he would be the one at the helm and make his own decisions - if they would be the correct ones - not sure., but he would not be as indecisive as FJ, who was against all modernisation. They said that FJ was too young when becoming Emperor and dying too late was the (main) cause of Habsburgs decline between the mid 1800s and 1918 ;)

FF was not a perfect man and would certainly not have been a perfect Emperor, but he probably would have ended the stagnation (for the better or worse) of the A-H Empire.
 
Franz Ferdinand would make a sinking ship sink faster. He had temper tamtrums with officials all the time, especially the Hungarians. One biography on him put it something like "He wanted to centralise his power as monarch through Federalism." Gotta love oxymoron political views. ;) An example of him being combative towards the Hungarians on a particular matter can be read here. https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/22812/pdf/1/

Others believe that the Ship only began to "sink" in 1917/1918 ;)
 
Franz Ferdinand would make a sinking ship sink faster. He had temper tamtrums with officials all the time, especially the Hungarians. One biography on him put it something like "He wanted to centralise his power as monarch through Federalism." Gotta love oxymoron political views.


Paradoxical but not necessarily wrong.

It wasn't necessary for the nationalities to love the Habsburgs. Indeed, it was even ok for them to hate the Habsburgs - just as long as they hated each other more. And these "federal" schemes would create lots of opportunities for them to quarrel.
 
Paradoxical but not necessarily wrong.

It wasn't necessary for the nationalities to love the Habsburgs. Indeed, it was even ok for them to hate the Habsburgs - just as long as they hated each other more. And these "federal" schemes would create lots of opportunities for them to quarrel.

Divide and rule, yes. But how long could an Emperor continue that delicate dance? I wouldn't know, but I don't think FF had a good personality for a course.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
I think Franz Ferdinand is a little more clever than people here think. His first move is to secure his flank with a Russian deal over the Balkans- Russia gets the Straits and he gets whatever he wants (if anything) in the Eastern Balkans

As for his internal issues, these are very tricky. Assuming the Army stays loyal and he is free from Russian intervention, he should be able to handle anything that the Hungarian nobles might try. His triune system is a hopeless failure by the way and the eventual collapse of Austria would ensue but perhaps not for many years.

Best hope for Austria would be to destroy Hungarian privileges and form a unitarian state on universal manhood suffrage. The Hungarian parties only represented the extreme elite
 
Franz Ferdinand would make a sinking ship sink faster. He had temper tamtrums with officials all the time, especially the Hungarians. One biography on him put it something like "He wanted to centralise his power as monarch through Federalism." Gotta love oxymoron political views. ;) An example of him being combative towards the Hungarians on a particular matter can be read here. https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/22812/pdf/1/
That's so untrue. Only the politicians of Russia (panslavism) and France believed that A-H was doomed and thus did everything to hasten it. in OTL A-H was stable until 1917!
So, I think that if Franz Ferdinand had become Emperor, he could have managed to reform the Danube monarchy and turned it into a federal monarchy. And it could have delayed (but not prevented) World War I.
 
Divide and rule, yes. But how long could an Emperor continue that delicate dance? I wouldn't know, but I don't think FF had a good personality for a course.


Neither did Franz Josef, until experience taught him a few lessons.

But anyway the Monarchy isn't as delicate as all that. It took four years of major war to bring it down. It isn't going to collapse just from having a bad tempered Emperor.
 
Others believe that the Ship only began to "sink" in 1917/1918 ;)

Here here :D

Honestly though it was only when the fortunes of war turned did the minorities within the empire become restless. The Croats, Czechs and the Poles were loyal the former out of distaste for the Hungarians. The Empire may have had problems but if FF can break the Hungarian Nobility then it's chances of surviving go up pretty significantly. :cool:
 
I wonder how it will play out if Franz Josef dies from cold in april 1914. OTL he recovered at the last moment, and for the most of april-may weeks FF rule was a writing on a wall. Most of FF court enemies were preparing to resign and retreat on comfortable pensions (confirmed by Franz Josef of course) and FF shadow cabinet was moving to take over. Unexpectedly Franz Josef recovered on may 29th. But if FF becomes emperor the Great War can start in summer of 1914 - from A-H civil war.

Remember that hungarian premier Tisza announced he won't obey FF and retire - and will oppose him with force. FF announced that Tisza will not be premier under his rule... regardless of consequences. Both FF faction and Hungarians were actually preparing militarily when Franz Josef returned to health.
 
Yes, while Ferdie was in ways clever he was also very Authoritarian, Stubborn, and he could hold a grudge like no other. He also seemed to be the sort of fellow to not take half measures, he was described as excessive.
 
There's also a big question here: Does FF marry Sophie Chotek and rewrite the house rules so that the marriage isn't morganatic? Granted, that's not something we can reasonably expect him to do (given the very conservative court bureaucracy)- but there is a fine Habsburg tradition of rewriting house rules when you see fit (viz. Charles VI and the Pragmatic Sanction).

Not to mention, most of the opposition to the marriage came from the court. If I remember correctly, Wilhelm was generally supportive, as was Nicholas II. Might this make for a slightly different foreign policy?
 
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