Serbian protection?
In that the Serbian police were providing part of his security detail.
Serbian protection?
Really? On A-H territory?In that the Serbian police were providing part of his security detail.
Really? On A-H territory?
The scenario you suggest seems quite likely, but does it rely on FF being there to temper Austro-Hungarian desires for war? If he's laid up during the critical days, this leaves the government free to draw up the ultimatum for Serbia.
You can't help the feeling he'd have done much better with more realistic expectations.
Honestly I can't take this seriously, for a position as high as Conrad it is absolutely responsible for knowing what his army is capable of and not making it do things it's not able to do, things like the Carpathian campaign should not have happened or the punishment campaign which he should have known wounlnt work and only left his army vulnerable to Russia. Yes nobody had any particularly good generals in this war but this defence of Conrad makes no sence to me, he was only slitly better then cadorna if that.Is Conrad perfect? Of course not but its hard to come up with anyone better in the Austrian Army. In many ways, his expectations are better than FF's. He does, after all, realize that the Austrians have a small window when they can solve their problems by force before the Russians have recovered from the Manchurian debacle. His suggestion that they go to war with Serbia in 1908 makes much more sense than waiting until 1914
I think we shouldn't discount the psychologial/emotional impact of this elsewhere. FF was someone who no one really liked or simply didn't know at all.This. If there is anything that can be safely said about Archduke Franz Ferdinand, it is that he truly, genuinely, and deeply loved his wife. Had he lived and Sophie did not, and the Serbian government still implicated in her death (rightly or not) -- it would take an act of God to stop him from tearing the Serbian nation apart.
If Serbia pissed off people too much would they let Bulgaria take over all of it or most of it? They do have claims to much of the south and are Slavic(doesn’t that help with Russia agreeing to it?) A Bulgaria dominated Yugoslavia(Greater Bulgaria) that is made up of pre-ww1 Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia(Austria doesn’t want to deal with it anymore). Austria cuts a deal with Bulgaria over this but in exchange they don’t push for anymore claims over Austrian Slavic holdings?I think we shouldn't discount the psychologial/emotional impact of this elsewhere. FF was someone who no one really liked or simply didn't know at all.
However the picture of a wounded husband tearfully holding his beloved wife's dead body making it's way all around Europe and beyond is something that's going to affect decision-makers in a way that can't just be rationalized the way a Grand Strategy Gamer just clicks away a historical background event.
I think in TTL there is a much higher chance of the Entente throwing Serbia under the bus, once FF gets around to demanding it's gouvernments heads on a platter than OTL. Even the most revanchist French politicians don't want to come home to their own wives to tell them how they are going to war to prevent a widower from getting justice for his dead wife.
Conrad wasn't a good field commander but he did much to improve the Austrian Army from the days of BeckHonestly I can't take this seriously, for a position as high as Conrad it is absolutely responsible for knowing what his army is capable of and not making it do things it's not able to do, things like the Carpathian campaign should not have happened or the punishment campaign which he should have known wounlnt work and only left his army vulnerable to Russia. Yes nobody had any particularly good generals in this war but this defence of Conrad makes no sence to me, he was only slitly better then cadorna if that.
While not politically correct (either then or now), Conrad's recurring calls for preemptive wars did make sense during a period of Russian weakness following the Russo-Japanese war, but with the benefit of hindsight, from 1912 the A-H army and economy were both growing more rapidly than Imperial Russia, so a delayed conflict would have been to the benefit of A-H. This is not necessarily reflected in high school history books or the calculations of the CP military leadership at the time who purportedly espoused a better now than later opinion.Conrad wasn't a good field commander but he did much to improve the Austrian Army from the days of Beck
Your comments make little sense. Conrad certainly knew his army was losing geound versus the Russians and his suggestion to make war in 1908 was quite rational. His willingness to roll the dice in 1914 makes more sense than waiting a few years for Russia to grow even stronger and Italy and Romania drift further from the Austro German camp
Realistically, what alternative rid Austria have? Surrender the Balkans to Russia?
You offer nothing for an alternative