WI: Franz Ferdinand only wounded in Sarajevo?

The scenario you suggest seems quite likely, but does it rely on FF being there to temper Austro-Hungarian desires for war? If he's laid up during the critical days, this leaves the government free to draw up the ultimatum for Serbia.

You know this is a tough one. On the one hand, Franz Ferdinand is the biggest proponent of peace and having his wife killed is likely to make him rethink things. On the other hand, Franz Joseph is delighted that Sophie is dead and might be more inclined to send the Serbs a letter of thank you.

Conrad is an able commander with an inferior instrument. His greatest failing is that he didn't fully grasp the weakness of the Austrian army and expected too much from it. He makes mistakes but any commander will. Its hard to see anyone that would be far better. There is a reason Conrad rose to the top of the Austrian army
 
You can't help the feeling he'd have done much better with more realistic expectations.


Is Conrad perfect? Of course not but its hard to come up with anyone better in the Austrian Army. In many ways, his expectations are better than FF's. He does, after all, realize that the Austrians have a small window when they can solve their problems by force before the Russians have recovered from the Manchurian debacle. His suggestion that they go to war with Serbia in 1908 makes much more sense than waiting until 1914
 
Is Conrad perfect? Of course not but its hard to come up with anyone better in the Austrian Army. In many ways, his expectations are better than FF's. He does, after all, realize that the Austrians have a small window when they can solve their problems by force before the Russians have recovered from the Manchurian debacle. His suggestion that they go to war with Serbia in 1908 makes much more sense than waiting until 1914
Honestly I can't take this seriously, for a position as high as Conrad it is absolutely responsible for knowing what his army is capable of and not making it do things it's not able to do, things like the Carpathian campaign should not have happened or the punishment campaign which he should have known wounlnt work and only left his army vulnerable to Russia. Yes nobody had any particularly good generals in this war but this defence of Conrad makes no sence to me, he was only slitly better then cadorna if that.
 
I honestly think Austria-Hungary is going to still fall apart but at a much slower rate then otl. Ferdinand was flawed and idealistic in many ways. Hungary doesn’t want a United States of Austria. Some don’t even really want to share power with Austria let alone anyone else. If a Great Depression happens in this pod I could see that being the thing that breaks the empire and leading to a partition of the country(could vary depend on when it happens and how but my guess Germany absorbs a good bit of the empire and puppets the rest to make sure it’s German population is protected/privileged in these new nations). Hungary might try to break away when Austria is weak and Germany comes in and stomps them on Austria behalf before they completely fall apart(Germany would definitely come in and help especially if German minorities in these nations are being attacked). Italy is probably given some of their claims which makes them a solid Central power and German ally with Austria gone. Russia involvement in this depends on what’s going on domestically there. If they are full of domestic issues or distracted with something else Germany probably going to have a great amount or almost full control of the partition of the former empire. If Russia able to involve themselves they probably take a bit for themselves and France tries to jump in to limit German expansion as much as possible(France can’t do anything against Germany without Russian backing especially if they also have Italian support). Britain is a wild card in this. It really depends how each country been interacting with Britain up to this point.

If Germany can do as it pleases with partition Central Europe is theirs. They probably give Italy Dalmatia in exchange for them not complaining about them annexing Austria half of the empire and having a port in the Mediterranean. Germany could also promise to give certain rights and privileges to Italians in these lands to keep Italy more complacent and on broad with this. Germany wouldn’t give Serbia anything especially if they tried to take advantage of the situation(Germany calls in Bulgaria who gains much from the war with Serbia in land). Same goes for Romania. Transylvania is probably a German puppet due to the large German population there(under a German king with parliament made up of Germans, Hungarians, and Romanians). Banat is likely made a German puppet under rule of the local Germans and a much lesser extent Hungarians. Bosnia and remaining bits of Croatia are made independent or Bosnia could even be given to Croatia to stay quiet about Italian rule of Dalmatia. Hungary is only left its otl lands and Slovakia for rebelling and made a puppet under tight German control(German king. Probably Habsburg). Galicia is either made a puppet or given to Russia. The rest is integrated into Germany. If Austria-Hungary is falling apart Wilhelm or whoever is running Germany might see opportunity and march into the country to “help” the failing empire and fellow Germans. How that ends depends on what is going on in the neighboring countries when that happens.
 
This. If there is anything that can be safely said about Archduke Franz Ferdinand, it is that he truly, genuinely, and deeply loved his wife. Had he lived and Sophie did not, and the Serbian government still implicated in her death (rightly or not) -- it would take an act of God to stop him from tearing the Serbian nation apart.
I think we shouldn't discount the psychologial/emotional impact of this elsewhere. FF was someone who no one really liked or simply didn't know at all.
However the picture of a wounded husband tearfully holding his beloved wife's dead body making it's way all around Europe and beyond is something that's going to affect decision-makers in a way that can't just be rationalized the way a Grand Strategy Gamer just clicks away a historical background event.
I think in TTL there is a much higher chance of the Entente throwing Serbia under the bus, once FF gets around to demanding it's gouvernments heads on a platter than OTL. Even the most revanchist French politicians don't want to come home to their own wives to tell them how they are going to war to prevent a widower from getting justice for his dead wife.
 
I think we shouldn't discount the psychologial/emotional impact of this elsewhere. FF was someone who no one really liked or simply didn't know at all.
However the picture of a wounded husband tearfully holding his beloved wife's dead body making it's way all around Europe and beyond is something that's going to affect decision-makers in a way that can't just be rationalized the way a Grand Strategy Gamer just clicks away a historical background event.
I think in TTL there is a much higher chance of the Entente throwing Serbia under the bus, once FF gets around to demanding it's gouvernments heads on a platter than OTL. Even the most revanchist French politicians don't want to come home to their own wives to tell them how they are going to war to prevent a widower from getting justice for his dead wife.
If Serbia pissed off people too much would they let Bulgaria take over all of it or most of it? They do have claims to much of the south and are Slavic(doesn’t that help with Russia agreeing to it?) A Bulgaria dominated Yugoslavia(Greater Bulgaria) that is made up of pre-ww1 Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia(Austria doesn’t want to deal with it anymore). Austria cuts a deal with Bulgaria over this but in exchange they don’t push for anymore claims over Austrian Slavic holdings?
 
Honestly I can't take this seriously, for a position as high as Conrad it is absolutely responsible for knowing what his army is capable of and not making it do things it's not able to do, things like the Carpathian campaign should not have happened or the punishment campaign which he should have known wounlnt work and only left his army vulnerable to Russia. Yes nobody had any particularly good generals in this war but this defence of Conrad makes no sence to me, he was only slitly better then cadorna if that.
Conrad wasn't a good field commander but he did much to improve the Austrian Army from the days of Beck

Your comments make little sense. Conrad certainly knew his army was losing geound versus the Russians and his suggestion to make war in 1908 was quite rational. His willingness to roll the dice in 1914 makes more sense than waiting a few years for Russia to grow even stronger and Italy and Romania drift further from the Austro German camp

Realistically, what alternative rid Austria have? Surrender the Balkans to Russia?

You offer nothing for an alternative
 

BooNZ

Banned
Conrad wasn't a good field commander but he did much to improve the Austrian Army from the days of Beck

Your comments make little sense. Conrad certainly knew his army was losing geound versus the Russians and his suggestion to make war in 1908 was quite rational. His willingness to roll the dice in 1914 makes more sense than waiting a few years for Russia to grow even stronger and Italy and Romania drift further from the Austro German camp

Realistically, what alternative rid Austria have? Surrender the Balkans to Russia?

You offer nothing for an alternative
While not politically correct (either then or now), Conrad's recurring calls for preemptive wars did make sense during a period of Russian weakness following the Russo-Japanese war, but with the benefit of hindsight, from 1912 the A-H army and economy were both growing more rapidly than Imperial Russia, so a delayed conflict would have been to the benefit of A-H. This is not necessarily reflected in high school history books or the calculations of the CP military leadership at the time who purportedly espoused a better now than later opinion.

OTL A-H did not have many plausible alternatives, but perhaps the options chosen could have been executed much better?

I think pressing considerations were the extent A-H could rely on German support, which had been patchy in recent years and the impact a much larger Serbian state would ultimately have on the balance of power in the Balkans, after it had fully recovered from the Balkan wars.
 
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