WI: Franz Ferdinand only wounded in Sarajevo?

Old1812 · Jan 31, 2019

Reading Buttar's Collision of Empires, I learned Archduke Franz Ferdinand was to be the Commander-in-Chief of Austro-Hungarian forces. After his assassination, Conrad von Hötzendorf was left to take his place.

Let's say the Archduchess Sophie is killed by Princip, but Franz Ferdinand is only wounded. Assuming a war still occurs (very likely in my estimation), how will the A-H army fare under its intended commander? Will he choose to concentrate against Serbia as had been planned, or make the OTL decision to shift to attack Russia?

Old1812 · Feb 1, 2019

Looking at Wikipedia, I can't decipher what Franz Ferdinand's strategic decisions will be here. He was cautious with Serbia, but I'm not sure if he'll be as jumpy as Conrad on Serbia vs. Russia.

Old1812 · Feb 8, 2019

Old1812 said:
Looking at Wikipedia, I can't decipher what Franz Ferdinand's strategic decisions will be here. He was cautious with Serbia, but I'm not sure if he'll be as jumpy as Hötzendorf on Serbia vs. Russia.

Does anyone have any ideas here?

Jukra · Feb 8, 2019

Old1812 said:
Reading Buttar's Collision of Empires, I learned Archduke Franz Ferdinand was to be the Commander-in-Chief of Austro-Hungarian forces. After his assassination, Conrad von Hötzendorf was left to take his place.

Let's say the Archduchess Sophie is killed by Princip, but Franz Ferdinand is only wounded. Assuming a war still occurs (very likely in my estimation), how will the A-H army fare under its intended commander? Will he choose to concentrate against Serbia as had been planned, or make the OTL decision to shift to attack Russia?

Is there not a few ground rules for 20th Century, like "Don't mess with Vietnamese Communists" and "Anything in place of von Hötzendorf is an improvement"?

Old1812 · Feb 8, 2019

Jukra said:
Is there not a few ground rules for 20th Century, like "Don't mess with Vietnamese Communists" and "Anything in place of von Hötzendorf is an improvement"?

From what I can tell, Conrad was quite good as an administrator, but failed when he was in the role of C-in-C. Franz Ferdinand might be more decisive, and let Conrad do what he did best.

Old1812 · Mar 23, 2019

Tagging @BooNZ for this- haven't you made threads on A-H before?

Everdarklegion · Mar 23, 2019

Had Ferdinand lived, he was a major supporter of the United States of Austia. A nation made of ethnic statea in the Balkans

BooNZ · Mar 23, 2019

Old1812 said:
Tagging @BooNZ for this- haven't you made threads on A-H before?

I don't recall making any meaningful threads, but I find A-H threads difficult to resist...

In respect of this thread, I would expect FF as commander in chief it would be a substantially ceremonial role, calculated to increase military budgets. Conrad (or an alternative military professional) would have continued to call the shots. It has been suggested that in 1914 Conrad was out of favour with FF and was scheduled to be replaced, but if things kick off in 1914, Conrad is the war horse FF is stuck with.

In respect of FF, I assume his rule would have been an improvement (on the basis that something is better than nothing, which describes FJ's leadership), but on most accounts FF was a fairly mediocre character. If FF survives, I don't think you have war, since you lose the most significant casus belli and FF is probably the most influential dove in the A-H administration. I vaguely recall Sophie was a political liability, so perhaps FF gets to hook up with a more popular hottie...

In my opinion the most likely outcome in this scenario is A-H backs down and Serbia receives 20 lashes with a wet bus ticket. However, this apparent A-H humiliation would be balanced by British being repulsed by Franco-Russian aggression and reverting to isolation. The French doves (a majority of the French electorate) are also likely to seriously question the French commitment to Russian adventurism in the Balkans. Essentially the Serbs probably "win", but lose their sponsors.

Old1812 · Mar 23, 2019

BooNZ said:
I don't recall making any meaningful threads, but I find A-H threads difficult to resist...

In respect of this thread, I would expect FF as commander in chief it would be a substantially ceremonial role, calculated to increase military budgets. Conrad (or an alternative military professional) would have continued to call the shots. It has been suggested that in 1914 Conrad was out of favour with FF and was scheduled to be replaced, but if things kick off in 1914, Conrad is the war horse FF is stuck with.

In respect of FF, I assume his rule would have been an improvement (on the basis that something is better than nothing, which describes FJ's leadership), but on most accounts FF was a fairly mediocre character. If FF survives, I don't think you have war, since you lose the most significant casus belli and FF is probably the most influential dove in the A-H administration. I vaguely recall Sophie was a political liability, so perhaps FF gets to hook up with a more popular hottie...

In my opinion the most likely outcome in this scenario is A-H backs down and Serbia receives 20 lashes with a wet bus ticket. However, this apparent A-H humiliation would be balanced by British being repulsed by Franco-Russian aggression and reverting to isolation. The French doves (a majority of the French electorate) are also likely to seriously question the French commitment to Russian adventurism in the Balkans. Essentially the Serbs probably "win", but lose their sponsors.

The scenario you suggest seems quite likely, but does it rely on FF being there to temper Austro-Hungarian desires for war? If he's laid up during the critical days, this leaves the government free to draw up the ultimatum for Serbia.

BooNZ · Mar 24, 2019

Old1812 said:
The scenario you suggest seems quite likely, but does it rely on FF being there to temper Austro-Hungarian desires for war? If he's laid up during the critical days, this leaves the government free to draw up the ultimatum for Serbia.

Would A-H feel empowered (and receive international sympathy) to the same extent if their loss was limited to the spouse of the heir to the Empire?

If FF is unable to influence A-H from going to war, I doubt he will have much influence over Conrad's initial conduct thereof. My gut feel is FF would ultimately play a role somewhere, but it is unlikely to be in military leadership or be particularly decisive - although a plausible timeline could change that.

BigBlueBox · Mar 24, 2019

Everdarklegion said:
Had Ferdinand lived, he was a major supporter of the United States of Austia. A nation made of ethnic statea in the Balkans

No, he wasn’t. Nobody that mattered supported anything more radical than Trialism.

Dolan · Mar 24, 2019

Some guys in higher ups will think the murder was a plot from The Emperor to remove Sophie and put better marriage to Franz-Ferdinand.!!

oberdada · Mar 25, 2019

The Wrath of the Arch-Duke will be terrible.

Some Bloke · Mar 25, 2019

Old1812 said:
From what I can tell, Conrad was quite good as an administrator, but failed when he was in the role of C-in-C. Franz Ferdinand might be more decisive, and let Conrad do what he did best.

Good point. The fact that A-H held out for 4 years shows he was doing something right even if it wasn't tactics or strategy.

Some Bloke · Mar 25, 2019

Dolan said:
Some guys in higher ups will think the murder was a plot from The Emperor to remove Sophie and put better marriage to Franz-Ferdinand.!!

If there's an opportunity, why waste it?

cpip · Mar 25, 2019

oberdada said:
The Wrath of the Arch-Duke will be terrible.

This. If there is anything that can be safely said about Archduke Franz Ferdinand, it is that he truly, genuinely, and deeply loved his wife. Had he lived and Sophie did not, and the Serbian government still implicated in her death (rightly or not) -- it would take an act of God to stop him from tearing the Serbian nation apart.

I could easily see this meaning that the Archduke intervenes in Conrad's redeployment of the 2nd Army to the Galician front against the Russians, because he would be focused on the Serbs, possibly to the exclusion of the Russians. What that means for both fronts I'd leave to others to work out.

Catspoke · Mar 25, 2019

cpip said:
I could easily see this meaning that the Archduke intervenes in Conrad's redeployment of the 2nd Army to the Galician front against the Russians, because he would be focused on the Serbs, possibly to the exclusion of the Russians. What that means for both fronts I'd leave to others to work out.

If this happened, at least the Austrians wouldn't be advancing into Russia, would remain 20 miles behind the border. Most likely the Austrians would still be forced from Galacia, but with less losses than OTL.

With the second army the Austrians take Belgrade but stall and hold at the main line of Serbian resistance south of there.

Old1812 · Mar 25, 2019

cpip said:
This. If there is anything that can be safely said about Archduke Franz Ferdinand, it is that he truly, genuinely, and deeply loved his wife. Had he lived and Sophie did not, and the Serbian government still implicated in her death (rightly or not) -- it would take an act of God to stop him from tearing the Serbian nation apart.

I could easily see this meaning that the Archduke intervenes in Conrad's redeployment of the 2nd Army to the Galician front against the Russians, because he would be focused on the Serbs, possibly to the exclusion of the Russians. What that means for both fronts I'd leave to others to work out.

Again from reading Buttar: the terrain in Galicia was quite well-suited to the defense, but Conrad's offensive strategy negated this advantage for the Austrians. Assuming A-H devotes its energies to crushing Serbia, while they stand on the defensive in Galicia, it seems 1914 could go a bit better for them. Not changing their extremely rigid mobilization plan will also be really helpful.

Arcavia · Mar 25, 2019

Old1812 said:
Looking at Wikipedia, I can't decipher what Franz Ferdinand's strategic decisions will be here. He was cautious with Serbia, but I'm not sure if he'll be as jumpy as Conrad on Serbia vs. Russia.

Everdarklegion said:
Had Ferdinand lived, he was a major supporter of the United States of Austia. A nation made of ethnic statea in the Balkans

Whilst Franz was more moderate than many in the Austrian gov't re: minorities, he wasn't particularly forward thinking to begin with. And seeing his beloved wife shot dead in front of him whilst he's supposed to be under Serbian protection might greatly impact his worldview...

BooNZ · Mar 25, 2019

Arcavius said:
Whilst Franz was more moderate than many in the Austrian gov't re: minorities, he wasn't particularly forward thinking to begin with. And seeing his beloved wife shot dead in front of him whilst he's supposed to be under Serbian protection might greatly impact his worldview...

Serbian protection?