WI Franz Ferdinand is Shot but doesn't die

OTL, the Archduke was shot in the jugular vein and took more than fifteen minutes to die.

WI Princip is less accurate [perhaps he had a beer in a nearby pub after learning that the bomb had failed] and, instead of delivering a mortal wound, simply renders the Archduke incapacitated or mute?
 
I'm sure conditions at the time in Europe were so that even an unsuccessful assassination attempt would be enough to trigger a widescale localised armed conflict if not a continental one.

My knowledge of history around this period is very vague, so I cannot suspect the impacts of the Archduke surviving, but if he had been seriously injured or made mute as you say, then he probably wouldn't really have any political influence either way.
 
He didnt had any political influence anyway after his morganatic marriage with Sophie (if i remember her name correctly...)
 
Is his wife still assassinated? That could be enough to start the same chain of events that leaded to the Great War in OTL, and I don't think that a mute Franz Ferdinand interned in a hospital could have stopped that.
 
He didnt had any political influence anyway after his morganatic marriage with Sophie (if i remember her name correctly...)

Sophie Chotek, yes. I think this marriage ended up being one of the most important of the past century, certainly one of the most fateful. The reason that lady was in Sarajevo in the first place that day was because 28 June 1914 was their fourteenth wedding anniversary, and Franz Ferdinand very much wanted to see her get proper honors on the occasion, which she was entitled to in her role as wife as Inspector-General of the Armed Forces. It's not widely remembered today that Emperor Franz Joseph had actually been doing what he could to improve her status, bit by bit, starting with making her Duchess of Hohenberg in 1909, then giving her the right to receive formal military honors and be the colonel-in-chief of various regiments, and showing her signs of his personal favor such as having long conversations with her at grand balls
; he actually respected her quite highly for the dignified way in which she bore the slights pitched at her because of her non-royal status.

Actually, Franz Ferdinand did have a great deal of political influence. His so-called "Military Chancellery" at the Belvedere Palace, his Vienna residence, was both a sort of government-in-waiting and what we today might call a think tank, specializing in military reform and modernization. Conrad von Hotzendorf, the Austro-Hungarian chief of staff, was FF's man, and the Archduke himself wielded considerable power as Inspector-General of the A-H armed forces. He was an enthusiastic navalist, though he'd never actually done any naval service, and was a major factor in the development of the A-H navy. At the same time, he had a lot of importance in diplomatic affairs; had he not been assassinated, he, for example, might have been able to use personal diplomacy to significantly improve relations with Great Britain (he and Sophie had enjoyed a highly successful private visit there in the fall of 1913 during which they had been received by King George and Queen Mary, and there was a return invitation for the British pair in the works for the Archduke's estate at Konospicht (sp?) in what is today Czechoslovakia).

This hasn't even touched yet on his ambitious plans for reorganizing and reforming the governmental structure of Austria-Hungary had he acceded to the throne. His pet project was called "trialism", as he wanted to create a Triple Monarchy, elevating at least one of the Slavic parts of the empire to kingdom status co-equal with Austria and Hungary. This was directly aimed at counterbalancing Magyar power. FF deeply detested the Hungarian nobility, but one reason that may not be well-known is that he saw them as thoroughly reactionary, which they were (and since FF has sometimes been described as a "conservative revolutionary", if he regarded a group of people as being reactionary, you can assume they were pretty bad, all right.)

-Joe-
 
Is his wife still assassinated? That could be enough to start the same chain of events that leaded to the Great War in OTL, and I don't think that a mute Franz Ferdinand interned in a hospital could have stopped that.

Well, it's quite possible that if Sophie had been shot dead, FF might not have wanted to stop A-H from punishing Serbia. See the thread "Pour le Coeur" for another examination of what happens in just that sort of situation. This marriage was a great love match, and if his adored wife had been murdered before his eyes, Franz Ferdinand would certainly have wanted retribution.

-Joe-
 
OTL, the Archduke was shot in the jugular vein and took more than fifteen minutes to die.

WI Princip is less accurate [perhaps he had a beer in a nearby pub after learning that the bomb had failed] and, instead of delivering a mortal wound, simply renders the Archduke incapacitated or mute?

IIRC, Princip was standing right outside a pub when the archducal car made its fatal wrong turn (at least I think it was a pub; several photos of the scene show a gigantic cardboard stand-up of a wine or liquor bottle standing next to the shop's door). OTL, Princip testified at his trial that he wasn't even really watching to take aim when he pulled the trigger; he claimed that he was so disconcerted by the sight of Duchess Sophie seated alongside the Archduke (if we can believe him, it was a total accident that Sophie was shot; he had been intending to kill General Potoriek along with the Archduke) that he turned his head away as he fired. There's also some reports indicating that a plainclothes police agent standing next to Princip grabbed his arm as he fired, thus throwing his aim off still more.

Therefore, it wouldn't have taken very much at all - an inch or two's difference, really - for either or both bullets to have missed their mark. H'mmm. Maybe bullet one misses Sophie by just literally inches, burrowing into the car's upholstery instead, and bullet two slams into Franz Ferdinand's right shoulder just under his collarbone, fracturing both shoulder and collarbone? That would certainly be enough to incapacitate the Archduke for weeks if not months; shoulder wounds are generally a much more serious matter than they're presented as being in the movies. It's possible he might even lose the use of his right arm. This is just one way it could have gone, but I think it fits the bill. An unconscious, badly-hurt Franz Ferdinand is just about as good as a dead Franz Ferdinand for firing u the war party in Vienna.

-Joe-
 

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Banned
All the same, Franz-Joseph will present ultimatum to Serbia. The fact that Gavrila Princip shot FF would be enough. AH needs the least excuse to teach Serbia a lesson.
 
Highly doubtful, at least not at that point. See Hobelhouse's currently on-going TL , "Franz Ferdinand Has A Much Better Day", for a look at what happens in that case.
 
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