WI: Franks take Iberia by the end of the 8th century?

This question was inspired by my Frankish campaign in the "Age of Charlemagne" expansion for "Total War: Attila," where I had the Franks take over the last Cordoban possession in 799 or so.

Leaving aside the question of whether or not such a feat would actually have been possible, I'm interested to know what the long-term effects might have been. Since Charlemagne's empire was divided among his sons after his death, it can be presumed that Iberia would eventually become separate from the other regions that would eventually become France, Germany and so on, so no super-France or anything like that. But I wonder how Frankish control and a far shorter period of Arab rule might affect such things as languages, for example, considering that the oldest surviving records containing written Galician-Portuguese are documents from the 9th century, whilst Spanish as a language didn't yet exist as such at the time as people spoke Castilian, Leonese, Basque and Catalan.
 
A Frankish presence in Spain is actually pretty likely, even if for different reasons, if you butterfly the Islamic presence.

See, Visigothic anti-dynastic kingship provoked from time to time succession crisis : in 632, Sisenand was able to accede to the throne thanks to Frankish help and in 672 the count Paulus received some Frankish support on his attempt of an "eastern Kingdom" in Iberia.

With the de facto division of the kingdom between Roderic and Agila, it's possible that at least a part of one of the sides would call for Franks as it happened with Berbers IOTL.
Basically, the weakening of Visigothic monarchy could eventually end with a partial protectorate of Franks over a part of Spain (likely the oriental part) not unlike Ostrogothic protectorate in the VIth century (meaning at least a portion of Frankish and Aquitain nobility settling up)

Now, it becomes harder having a Carolingian conquest over a Muslim Spain : stronger emirate, relative absence of too much divided elite south of Ebre...

I could still see, a partial conquest of vassalisation of Ebre's basin by Carolingians.
We know that, in 765 and 768, Franks and Abassids exchanged ambassies at the initiative of Peppin III. Would he have lived a bit more, you could have seen earlier Carolingian expeditions in Pyrenean Iberian peninsula, comparable to what Charlemagne and his son eventually pulled out : it would be as much territories being possibly used as a stepstone for later campaigns.

A future equivalent to Paderborn's embassy could as well ensure more Abassid's support (remember that Abbassids were able to pull two, while unsuccessful, expeditions and revolts in al-Andalus including Abd al-Rahman ibn Habid al-Siqlabi's revolt that was likely made in cunjunction with Paderborn's embassy) or at least a more efficient one with the support of part of Ebre's Arab nobles.

Note, however, that we're less talking, even IOTL, of a full-fledged conquest than a support and possible clientelisation of north-western andalusian polities with the conquest of key positions north of Ebre, at least until the revolt was crushed.

The main problem is that these same Arabo-Andalusian lords weren't exactly thrilled at the prospect being clientelised and possibly threatened by closer Franks, especially when they suffered recent and regular defeats against them.
Basically, you'd need a more successful pro-Abbasid revolt in al-Andalus, to make these nobles more solid when it come to the Abbasid-Carolingian alliance in Spain.
If it fails, or if Arab nobles eventually refuse Frankish presence as IOTL, you'd have at best a superficial conquest of transpyrenean highlands as IOTL, bonus or minus some places.

Of course, a full-fledged conquest of Iberia is mostly implausible at this point : Charlemagne is engaged in too many fronts (Saxony and Spain, particularily) and don't have the resources to engage in such campaign.

After 778, it becomes even harder, campaign in Spain being less supported by Charlemagne and more the matter of Franco-Aquitain nobles and Louis I of Aquitaine.
At best, which would be already quite something, you could have more successful Franco-Aquitain campaigns in the late 790's and 800's, after the Arabo-Andalusian raids in Aquitaine and revolt of northern-eastern Arab lords.
Meaning that Huesca, Tortosa, Lerida, maybe Tarragona could fall into Frankish control with a significant support from Charlemagne and if Alfonso II of Asturias goes true by his word when he offered allegiance if Franks worked out a campaign against Umayyads.

But there we're mostly talking of a bigger Marca Hispanica/Tolosana.

So, basically either you may have an actual Frankish and Carolingian presence in Spain in the VIIIth century if you butterfly away al-Andalus and possibly Arab conquest of Maghrib; either you may have more successful Carolingian expeditions in Muslim Spain that would most probably be limited on northern basin of Ebre (while with interesting consequences on local geopolitics).

What would you prefer to focus on?
 
Well, for what matter North-Eastern Spain, I don't think you could have everything Charlemagne hoped for (probably not Saragossa, for instance), but at least a good chunk at the end of the constitution of this mega-Spanish March.

I couldn't say exactly which places would be taken by Franks in this expeditions, but I think it could give (especially if ITTL Peppin III lived longer and could have taken an hold on SPain earlier) something like this as a maximal range (on left, with IOTL situation for early 814 on right). Not immediately, but over different expeditions, swalloing up of submitted Islamic principalities, etc. in 810's/820's.

ZPFalMd.png


Basically, an extension over most of Pyrenean highlands, with

- Gasconia ulterior (south of Pyrenees) being more importantly developed (which may make the big Basque revolt less successful IOTL)
- Marca Hispanica/Tolosana being slightly reduced, but expanding up to Ebre
- Asturias acknowledging a relatively formal Frankish overlordship, while expanding more quickly in the same direction than IOTL (roughly the situation in late IXth)
- al-Andalus, either pro-Abbasid or not being more likely fragmented outside core areas into principalties (keeping in mind that whoever is in charge would have a relatively easy time not only ensuring overlordship but increasing his power over time) possibly with earlier concession to muladi (or Christian princes as in Murcia)

Over time it could mean a lasting Kingdom of Aquitaine, would it be as a sub-kingdom, giving a more important hold in Spain of his nobility (especially Gascon and Tolosan);

What would this situation change? Assuming no radical changes, politically wise from IOTL and TTL at this point (which can always happen, of course : it's really hard talking long term there), it could mean

- A stronger Transpyrheneean Occitan in Gasconia Ulterior, especially in cities and urban centers, at the expense of Basque and Aragonese. Not that it would make these disappear, but at least even less relevant for elite and cultural usage.

- No big change for what matters Old Catalan : probably remains a close dialect of Old Occitan, barring some political event as IOTL that would separate it. Its evolution, especially territorially, would depend over regional power's focus.

- Spanish, ITTL, may be more influenced by western dialects and Old Galaico-Portuguese than IOTL. Meaning a lesser basque influence, and maybe a more important influence of Old Occitan (comparable to the one that knew Old Galaico-Portuguese). It may make *Castillan an as much distinct dialect than Leonese ITTL, but I'm not overconfident on it.

Again, we're talking of a "maximum" change within realm of plausibility, tough.
 

trurle

Banned
The main consequence of Moors expelled from Spain early would be the Spain/Portugal less uniform, ethnically and politically. Modern Iberia rose from just few Christian kingdoms (last surviving were Navarre, Castilia, Aragon and Protugal). Without very slow conquest as IOTL, the political divisions will last for longer and Spain will likely to be unified to one or few nation states only in 19th century, at about the same time frame as Italy or Germany.
 
Top