WI: Franjo Tudjman lived until 9/11?

Watching a documentary on the Yugoslavia Wars and it seems that Franjo often mused to his colleagues about his intention to eventually break the Dayton accord and reignite the Bosian Wars, possibly working with the Serbians to do so.
Neither history nor emotion in the Balkans will permit multinationalism. We have to give up on the illusion of the last eight years... Dayton isn't working. Nobody- except diplomats and petty officials - believes in a sovereign Bosnia and the Dayton accords

-Tudjman

The only thing that prevented this was his death and NATO's willingness to protect the Bosniak Muslims.

So what if both were butterflied away?
i.e Tudjman lives a few more years and its immediately after 9/11?

Would he risk violating Dayton in 2002? Would the Serbs go along with him or possibly use it as a way to reignite the Croat-Serbian war?

Would NATO, wrapped up in the Afghanistan rush back into Yugoslavia?
 
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Watching a documentary on the Yugoslavia Wars and it seems that Franjo often mused to his colleagues about his intention to eventually break the Dayton accord and reignite the Bosian Wars, possibly working with the Serbians to do so.


The only thing that prevented this was his death and NATO's willingness to protect the Bosniak Muslims.

So what if both were butterflied away?
i.e Tudman lives a few more years and its immediately after 9/11?

Would he risk violating Dayton in 2002? Would the Serbs go along with him or possibly use it as a way to reignite the Croat-Serbian war?

Would NATO, wrapped up in the Afghanistan rush back into Yugoslavia?

There's really no reason NATO can't do both, seeing as Croatia isn't exactly a military juggernaught. While there was certainly an upswing in 'the only good Muslim is a dead Muslim' sentiment post 9/11, I don't think it was nearly enough to see NATO acquiesce to the partition of Bosnia. For that to be remotely plausible, you'd need Bosnia to really go off the rails in the interim, becoming associated with organized crime, weapons smuggling, etc. As for Serbia, Milosevic was out in 1999, and I don't see his replacements jumping at the chance to reignite the Bosnian war, with or against Croatia. If Croatia succeeds unmolested they might make a claim for Srpska, but there won't be active coordination.
 
There's really no reason NATO can't do both, seeing as Croatia isn't exactly a military juggernaught. While there was certainly an upswing in 'the only good Muslim is a dead Muslim' sentiment post 9/11, I don't think it was nearly enough to see NATO acquiesce to the partition of Bosnia. For that to be remotely plausible, you'd need Bosnia to really go off the rails in the interim, becoming associated with organized crime, weapons smuggling, etc. As for Serbia, Milosevic was out in 1999, and I don't see his replacements jumping at the chance to reignite the Bosnian war, with or against Croatia. If Croatia succeeds unmolested they might make a claim for Srpska, but there won't be active coordination.

It does strike me as imaginable if you could somehow plausibly link the Bosnian Muslims to September 11th. It might be possible--play up the mujaheddin volunteers? have the conspiracy unfold differently? Even then, it would require the Bosnian state to encounter significantly greater problems.
 
It does strike me as imaginable if you could somehow plausibly link the Bosnian Muslims to September 11th. It might be possible--play up the mujaheddin volunteers? have the conspiracy unfold differently? Even then, it would require the Bosnian state to encounter significantly greater problems.

Well that's the thing. Given the Neocon's willingness to just make up Intel to justify their wars, they might be willing to buy this ATL Tudman if he did the same with Bosnia post 9/11
 
Well that's the thing. Given the Neocon's willingness to just make up Intel to justify their wars, they might be willing to buy this ATL Tudman if he did the same with Bosnia post 9/11

They were willing to make pre-9/11 enemies of the United States, like Iraq and potentially Iran, into targets on the basis of their prior hostility. Doing the same with Bosnian Muslims would represent a much bigger break: Why let local proxies go after Muslim populations the United States had promised to protect? If neocons decided to go after Muslims generally, this might work, but that would be a very significant shift that Tudjman's survival alone could not achieve.
 
They were willing to make pre-9/11 enemies of the United States, like Iraq and potentially Iran, into targets on the basis of their prior hostility. Doing the same with Bosnian Muslims would represent a much bigger break: Why let local proxies go after Muslim populations the United States had promised to protect? If neocons decided to go after Muslims generally, this might work, but that would be a very significant shift that Tudjman's survival alone could not achieve.

Hmm true.
But the wild card i suppose would be the American/Western European public at large. Right around 9/11 there was that auto-cognitive connection, as stupid as it was, between Islam and Terrorism.
Again, it seems if Tudjman, who after the Yugoslav wars was seen in a better light comparatively to Milosevic, might be able to sell Bosnia Muslims are part of that nonsense and in doing so might launch a preemptive a Croatian re-invasion of Bosnia to "root out" Islamic terrorists.
Perhaps he may even have tried to join the "Coalition of the Willing" to do so as well..
 
Whatever goodwill he had would evaporate and he'd widely be seen as the Croatian Milosevic. I doubt Koštunica or Đinđic would be cooperative and croatia's accession to the EU would be set as far back as Serbia's at least.

Bosnian Muslims have two things going for them;
1) they're European and way more liberal than their ME coreligionists
2) they're on the receiving end of a lot of sympathy because of Srebrenica, Sarajevo, you name it
 
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Whatever goodwill he had would evaporate and he'd widely be seen as the Croatian Milosevic. I doubt Koštunica or Đinđic would be cooperative and croatia's accession to the EU would be set as far back as Serbia's at least.

Bosnian Muslims have two things going for them;
1) they're European and way more liberal than their ME coreligionists
2) they're on the receiving end of a lot of sympathy because of Srebrenica, Sarajevo, you name it

Yes. You would really need for Tudjman to be able to plausibly establish close links between the Bosnian Muslims and al-Qaeda, preferably with the hard core. At the very least, Sarajevo might need to be a European landing area for the hijackers. I don't think that might be enough, though. Nothing short of active Bosnian state collaboration with Bin Laden might be enough.
 
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