WI: Franco's coup crushed 1936: no Spanish Civil War

RousseauX

Donor
The Spanish Civil war started as a result of a half-successful, half-failed coup by elements of the Spanish right and the Spanish armed forces against the left-wing government. The coup was crushed in parts of the country (including Madrid) but succeeded in a lot of areas and that formed the boundaries by which the war was fought.

In a lot of cases control over entire cities and regions were decided by activism of small groups (sometimes a few hundred or even in the dozens) of militant citizens by both sides. In particular, the port of Serville by which a huge amount of aid flowed into the Nationalist side was actually a left-wing stronghold whose working class was ready to fight against the military takeover but couldn't because they weren't armed. The guns and the bolts (they were bolt-action rifles) were stored separately in the city and they weren't able to get their hands on both. As a result the city fell to a relatively small number of coup aligned soldiers.

Let's say the Republicans do a bit better: the guns and the bolts were stored at the same place in the city: the working class and unions arm themselves and fights off the coup. Similarly, all over the country, the left is somewhat more successful and the coup succeeds in far fewer places. Germany and Italy sees the coup as an abortive failure and limits aid provide to Franco, by winter of 1936 most of the country is back in the government's hands and by spring of 1937 the "war" is all but over. Franco flees into exile to Italy and nobody pays much attention to him.

What happens next: the Germans and italians don't get to try out their fancy tactics and equipment in an actual war, a left-wing instead of a fascist government is in power. The Communists aren't nearly as strong because the Republic didn't need Soviet aid to fight Franco. How does this impact WWII?
 
Your title is inaccurate: the military rebellion in 1936 was not "Franco's"; he neither organized or led it. He was outranked by Generals Sanjurjo and Mola. Sanjurjo was to be caudillo, until he committed suicide by excess baggage; Mola's plane crash was also accidental. Only then did Franco come to the fore.

What happens next: the Germans and italians don't get to try out their fancy tactics and equipment in an actual war...

Neither do the Soviets. It is a peculiar fact that both the Soviets and Italians learned false lessons in Spain.

The Soviets shipped in BT-7 tanks, which were fast, lightly armored, and mounted a relatively large 45mm gun. The BT-7s far outclassed the German Pz Is and Italian tankettes of the Nationalists. The Nationalists offered a large reward for the capture of a BT-7 in working order, for use in their service. (There was even a tank battle between Republican and Nationalist BT-7s.)

So the Soviets continued to build them in large numbers for several years. In the Winter War and the opening weeks of BARBAROSSA, they were shot to pieces. Fortunately, the Soviets also built the heavy KV series tanks, and the magnificent T-34.

The Italians brought in biplane fighters, which proved far more maneuverable than the Soviet monoplane fighters of the Republic, and shot them down in dogfights. So the Italians continued to develop and manufacture biplane fighters (their last models were the fastest and ruggedest biplane fighters ever built). But other countries recognized that "dogfighting" was obsolete, and changed tactics to emphasize speed - and monoplanes could be much faster than any biplane. The Italians also produced some fast monoplane fighters, but too few and too late for their needs.

... a left-wing instead of a fascist government is in power. The Communists aren't nearly as strong because the Republic didn't need Soviet aid to fight Franco. How does this impact WWII?

The Communist position will be different. OTL, the official Republican government was a coalition of Socialists (PSOE), Communists (PCE), and the "Republican Left" (mostly middle-class voters opposed to monarchy and the Church). The de facto Republican state was a coalition of the Republic, anarchosyndicalist committees, and "soviet"-like worker councils of socialists.

In the immediate wake of rebellion was followed by a period of "Red Terror" in the Republic-controlled areas, as the violent Left went after the its class enemies. This was checked after a few weeks, in large part by intervention of the "disciplined" PCE, which used the excesses of the Terror as reason to liquidate many of its rivals on the Left. Nonetheless, many of the Republican Left feared and distrusted the PCE; and there were many people in the Republican zone who were neutral, as long as the Reds didn't come after them in person.

.... More later. I know what else I want to say, but I'm nodding off. I'll finish this post tomorrow.
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Forgot about this; I'll finish it now. Here goes...
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There will be "Red Terror" as in OTL, and it will cover the whole country; and as in OTL, it will be checked by the "responsible" elements of the Republic, including the Communists. But then what? The Left is now in complete control of Spain. The PCE does not have the leverage provided by Soviet support to the Republic in the war; OTOH, with the RIght crushed, the radical Left (PSOE and PCE) doesn't need the support of the Republican Left as much.

The key here is that the PCE, while small, is disciplined, and has great influence within the much larger PSOE. The PSOE was dominated by its Marxist revolutionary wing, led by Largo Caballero,"the Spanish Lenin". PSOE discourse (editorials,magazines, speeches) spoke of "Bolshevization" and "soviets". In short, there was not much space between the majority of the PSOE and the PCE - except perhaps on the question of fealty to Moscow.

In a wholly Republican Spain, with the Left triumphant and unchecked, there could be a general shift toward radicalization, with the PCE gaining recruits and influence. The revolutionary institutions created in reaction to the rebellion would persist, and gain further power. The Republican Left would be marginalized. By 1939, the radicals could be strong enough to take over completely.
 
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Archibald

Banned
What's more, in the TL I linked, DR. strangelove suggest Franco hesitated a lot. He could have supported the regular government if they had not snubbed him.
 
... How does this impact WWII?

Opinions vary from automatic Axis invasion 1940-41 to nuetrallity through the war. Best case for the Allies is for Spain to close the border in the spring of 1944, thus cutting off any residual raw materials for Germany. Then a DoW about the same time that Op Overlord is initiated. The German reserves are to thin to deal with Spain or any Allied forces disembarking in Spainish ports.
 

Archibald

Banned
Invading Spain from France would be a logistic nightmare. Both country have similar land surfaces (500 000 km2) but Spain has mountains and plateaus all over the place. Plus Hitler has bigger fishes to fry, he wants to destroy Great Britain and the Soviet Union.
 
Invading Spain from France would be a logistic nightmare. Both country have similar land surfaces (500 000 km2) but Spain has mountains and plateaus all over the place. Plus Hitler has bigger fishes to fry, he wants to destroy Great Britain and the Soviet Union.

Yes, but taking Spain gives him a chokehold on Allied shipping into and out of the Med. It allows U-Boats into the Med, and more ports into the Atlantic, and unless the Allies act very quickly, could lead to the loss of the Azores, making the Battle of the Atlantic considerably more difficult.
 
Yes, but taking Spain gives him a chokehold on Allied shipping into and out of the Med. It allows U-Boats into the Med, and more ports into the Atlantic, and unless the Allies act very quickly, could lead to the loss of the Azores, making the Battle of the Atlantic considerably more difficult.

How the fuck do you propose taking the Azores when the Kriegsmarine surface fleet was not worth the steel used to build it? Oh and yay giant campaign in Iberia because reasons yay
 
How the fuck do you propose taking the Azores when the Kriegsmarine surface fleet was not worth the steel used to build it? Oh and yay giant campaign in Iberia because reasons yay


If the Germans defeat France as in OTL, they have the option of either pushing on to the Pyrennes or forcing Vichy to allow them passage. Neither Hitler's Generals nor his Admirals were enthusiastic about an invasion of England, I doubt they will be any happier having a Bolshevik Spain on their flank before they attack Russia. The operations against the UK could be sidelined, and an Iberian Campaign begun after a refit period. Taking Spain (and either forcing Portugal into an alliance or attacking them) gives ports and airfields from where the Germans can seal the Med. If the Italians have opted for neutrality ITTL they can sit it out, if not then the RM could send subs to Spain and out into the Atlantic. The closing of the Straights of Gibraltar alone would make the UK's position difficult, giving the U-boats both Spanish and French ports along with whatever raiders they can find. Of the three island groups (Canaries, the Madeira's and the Azores) the Madeira's and Azores are Portuguese, and whether or not they are used by the Germans depends on what the Portuguese govt.
does. An actual invasion is much less likely than basing German subs and aircraft there, and the Azores is iffy because of the distances involved. The Canaries however, are off the Spanish Sahara and Morocco, closer, and still offering ways (subs and aircraft) to interdict shipping. As to why, first off your dealing with Hitler, his ideas may not match probabilities very closely. If however, he takes the long view, ie, eliminate Spain to guard his back and strangle England, then its possible (IMO) he may try this. Mussolini may join Hitler in this, (leaving Greece alone) adding the RM and RA to the battles. All this would put Hitler's treasured invasion of the SU off for another year, probably more. That weighs against my idea of what is worst case scenario for the allies.
As to the KM, I haven't figured their surface vessels into this to any great degree. The Italians and the Luftwaffe are more important as they can get there, while surface units of the KM are going to have the same difficulties they had in OTL just to get to France.
 

And then what's stopping the RN from sauntering a few heavy units down to the Azores blowing the place and rendering it useless for further operations? Oh, and Hitler delaying Leberuam seems pretty laughable and also this isn't Bolshevik Spain considering the left wing Spanish government never had to fight a civil war thus the positions of the communist from my understanding is far weaker. Pushing on the Pyrenees and into Spain means fighting an another major ground war that will force the LW to commit its forces on 2 theaters and consider that the multitude of PODs that will come from no Spanish Civil war it could possibly mean no Fall of France and in that cause Germany is @#$%@# in other words I really really doubt Hitler will commit his forces against a Spain that A. Is a massive risk B. Puts off Lebaruam in the East C invading a neutral country for no reason when fighting the British empire seems counterproductive. Hitler will probably post Fall of France try to knock the Uk out of the war fail that invade the USSR win and then invade Spain and the UK[/QUOTE]
 
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