WI: Franco stranded in Morocco

As most here will know, at the start of the Spanish Civil War, some of the nationalist's best troops were stationed in Morocco under the command of Franco, but due the Spanish navy remaining largely loyal to the Republic, he was unable to transport his troops across to the mainland. It was only through the intervention of Germany, who provided planes to airlift Franco's army to Spain, that he was able to cross.

So supposing that Hitler (and Mussolini too) are somehow dissuaded from providing transport to Franco, and the Army of Africa remains in Africa, what happens next?

Obviously there is a strong chance of the Republicans winning the war on the mainland without Franco's troops being in play, but what happens to Morocco after this?

How long would nationalist control of Morocco last? Could we get a short lived Taiwan situation? And if the status quo holds until the beginning of WW2, would it be plausible for the Axis to provide transport to Franco's troops to allow them to retake their homeland, perhaps alongside Gibraltar too?
 
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If the nationalists fail to make headway in Spain, it's likely that a number of officers who don't fancy spending the rest of their lives separated from their families in a hot, dusty backwater will discover Republican sympathies before too long.
 
The coup would be seen as unsuccessful. Officers in Spain who were sitting on the fence will support the government. Right-wing militias won't mobilize, and the government will intervene against them, disarming them when needed. Spain proper will remain entirely under the government's control.

The junta (Franco was by no means in overall command at the time) will have the Canary Islands and Spain territories in Africa, but it can't make a half-credible claim to being the legitimate government in this situation. Nor are those territories self-sustaining, they need to import stuff from Spain (or from abroad, but how will they pay?). This can't hold for long.

The coup will fizzle, various generals will seek for their way out (suicides, exiles). Mid-level officers will claim they were only obeying orders and had no idea. Back to normal, save that the government will become more authoritarian and right-wingers will be cracked down upon.
 
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