TFSmith121
Banned
Possibly; the 1860s were pretty sanguinary for the West
Arguably, the four major geo-strategic questions of the mid-19th Century in the West were:
1) Competition between Austria and Prussia over Central Europe;
2) Competition between France and the leading "German" power over Western Europe (which depended on the outcome of 1, of course);
3) The Eastern Question (focused on the Balkans and, to a lesser degree, the Anatolian Peninsula and eastern Mediterranean littoral);
4) Whether the European powers would re-assert themselves in the Western Hemisphere, or focus their imperial ambitions in Africa and Asia?
During the decade of the 1860s (defined as 1861-70) there were two conflicts that addressed 1, 1 that revolved 2, and 4 that tied in with 4. If you include the 1859 French intervention in Italy against the Austrians, there's a second that deals with 2), above; if you're willing to go back to 1854-56, there's one that deals with 3), and if you're willing to go ahead to the 1870s, there's another.
Given those realities, and the fact that although the alliances were not as formalized as they became by 1914, they did exist as a web of economic, dynastic, and geopolitical realities, yes, it is quite possible that what amounted to a global war - or a series of interelated "local" wars - could have broken out.
Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" lays out a lot of comparative economics; basically, using figures drawn from Paul Bairoch's various economic histories, the relative shares of world manufacturing output in the Western nations in 1860 were:
UK - 19.9
FR - 7.9
US - 7.2
Russia - 7
German states - 4.9
Austrian E. - 4.2
Italian states - 2.5
Obviously, manpower, geography, internal politics regarding mobilization, "imperial" needs (for the British, French, and Russians, at least) and each nation's individual strategic position figure into it as well, but it does suggest the relationships among the powers, and which of those have shared interests.
Best,
Probably ASB, but:
Could the Civil War, then, have escalated into a proto-world war?...Could this escalate or is it unlikely given the complex web of alliances did not yet exist in full?
Arguably, the four major geo-strategic questions of the mid-19th Century in the West were:
1) Competition between Austria and Prussia over Central Europe;
2) Competition between France and the leading "German" power over Western Europe (which depended on the outcome of 1, of course);
3) The Eastern Question (focused on the Balkans and, to a lesser degree, the Anatolian Peninsula and eastern Mediterranean littoral);
4) Whether the European powers would re-assert themselves in the Western Hemisphere, or focus their imperial ambitions in Africa and Asia?
During the decade of the 1860s (defined as 1861-70) there were two conflicts that addressed 1, 1 that revolved 2, and 4 that tied in with 4. If you include the 1859 French intervention in Italy against the Austrians, there's a second that deals with 2), above; if you're willing to go back to 1854-56, there's one that deals with 3), and if you're willing to go ahead to the 1870s, there's another.
Given those realities, and the fact that although the alliances were not as formalized as they became by 1914, they did exist as a web of economic, dynastic, and geopolitical realities, yes, it is quite possible that what amounted to a global war - or a series of interelated "local" wars - could have broken out.
Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" lays out a lot of comparative economics; basically, using figures drawn from Paul Bairoch's various economic histories, the relative shares of world manufacturing output in the Western nations in 1860 were:
UK - 19.9
FR - 7.9
US - 7.2
Russia - 7
German states - 4.9
Austrian E. - 4.2
Italian states - 2.5
Obviously, manpower, geography, internal politics regarding mobilization, "imperial" needs (for the British, French, and Russians, at least) and each nation's individual strategic position figure into it as well, but it does suggest the relationships among the powers, and which of those have shared interests.
Best,