WI Franco-Spanish-American War in 1898 (different European alliances)

The role of France in a potential war between Spain and the USA is quite difficult to anticipate:
  • I find it difficult to believe that France will move the bulk of the fleet to the Caribbeans, uncovering its own coasts and risking a disaster if Germany and Italy choose to make troubles in Europe: France needs a fleet in being, and needs it in the Mediterranean and the Channel.
  • I don't know what kind of naval assets France has in Indochina and China (probably no pre-dreadnought): it would b interesting to know what they had in the Far East IOTL. In any case, I doubt that the USA would have the strength (and the willpower) to make a move against the Spanish in the Philippines, knowing that in any case French Indochina gives them strategical depth.
  • If the war happens as per OTL, it will be limited to the Caribbean front. The real question is: will the war happen? Spain ITTL is allied to France and A-H, and this changes quite strongly American perception of the risk profile. My take is that there would be an increase in aid to the Cuban rebels, but most likely no conventional war(there is also a strong possibility that McKinley is not assassinated ITTL). Alternatively, I can see the USA starting a naval build up in the 1890s, possibly goaded by a stronger French presence in the Caribbeans due to the Spanish alliance). Maybe the war does not start in 1898, could it happen in 1905 (Teddy get elected president in 1904)? Alternatively, it
  • as a side line: will OTL France be more active in Far East, given the Spanish alliance? I might see France getting cozy with Japan, to take advantage from a local ally in the theatre. ITTL, the Franco-Japanese alliance might replace the British-Japanese





These are all very good points. If the USA is outnumbered by 38 to 7, then there will be no war, simple as that. The USA just can't win. However, perhaps in this ATl, the USA has a bigger fleet, or thinks France won't intervene or send ships. The latter could be possible, with France not wanting to send all the ships. But then, sending only a third of the fleet could still crush the Americans, so it still depends on how many ships the Americans have.

Also, I wonder if there was more French influence in the Pacific, what the Pacific war would look like?
 
With 38 vs 7 BBs I expect the French to win the naval war even if they send only a third of their fleet thus winning the land war by cutting American supply lines.
 
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