WI: Franco-Russo-Ethiopian Alliance?

This is one of the (many) ideas I have for an Ethiopia TL in the planning stages.

What if the Russians had approached Emperor Menelik II about entering into an alliance with the Russians and French in the aftermath of the First Italo-Ethiopian War?

I was thinking that if a more decisive victory had been obtained by the Ethiopians at the Battle of Adwa, it impresses the Franco-Russian alliance more than OTL and causes them to approach Ethiopia about the possibility of it joining them. I could the Russians doing it to further destabilize British influence in her ever expanding Empire and defend fellow Orthodox Christians whereas the French do it to increase their own influence in the Horn of Africa and contain Anglo-Italian expansion. Emperor Menelik II could secure a source of arms and advisors to establish his own professional Ethiopian Army to back him in further reforming and modernizing Ethiopia as she is further threatened by European colonial empires flanking her on all sides.

How plausible is this? What could it lead to?
 
Plausable in the sense of its political viability? Certainly, though France would be doing the heavy lifting since the Russians can't really project power efficiently into the Horn; indeed, it's about as far out of the way from their centers of naval power as possible and in all cases would have to pass by British strongpoints. Ironically though this makes it easier as there's not going to be disputes over areas of interest/influence within Ethiopia, with France getting whatever it pleases which likely includes infastructural concessions and basing/transit rights to establish French hegemony in the Sudan. This, in a Germanic irony, allow them to pull off the desired Afrique Central through the Sahara/Chad, linking their colonial possessions to mutually support one another both militarily and in terms of economic development.

Of course, this also puts Britain in a position where detente with France and Russia becomes effectively impossible; likely leading to them realigning to Germany and being more liberal in that nation's colonial ambitions and putting checks on the French in areas like Morocco. I'd also expect to see a sudden resurgence in the British interest in the development of the Ottomans, maybe conducting joint commercial projects with the Germans and a unified naval-land military mission with a similar makeup as the reform crew sent to help modernize Japan. This would be to help contain Russia and have a friendly regime to defend the Suez and bottle up Russian naval power (as well as holding her commerce hostage in the event of war) alongside Japan to form a Quintuple Alliance capable of "quarantining" the Franco-Russians. Italy could end up diplomatically isolated and colony-less, or drift towards France as she aligns her imperialist ambitions on the Adriatic, which would be at Austrian and Ottoman expense.
 
Plausable in the sense of its political viability? Certainly, though France would be doing the heavy lifting since the Russians can't really project power efficiently into the Horn; indeed, it's about as far out of the way from their centers of naval power as possible and in all cases would have to pass by British strongpoints. Ironically though this makes it easier as there's not going to be disputes over areas of interest/influence within Ethiopia, with France getting whatever it pleases which likely includes infastructural concessions and basing/transit rights to establish French hegemony in the Sudan. This, in a Germanic irony, allow them to pull off the desired Afrique Central through the Sahara/Chad, linking their colonial possessions to mutually support one another both militarily and in terms of economic development.

Of course, this also puts Britain in a position where detente with France and Russia becomes effectively impossible; likely leading to them realigning to Germany and being more liberal in that nation's colonial ambitions and putting checks on the French in areas like Morocco. I'd also expect to see a sudden resurgence in the British interest in the development of the Ottomans, maybe conducting joint commercial projects with the Germans and a unified naval-land military mission with a similar makeup as the reform crew sent to help modernize Japan. This would be to help contain Russia and have a friendly regime to defend the Suez and bottle up Russian naval power (as well as holding her commerce hostage in the event of war) alongside Japan to form a Quintuple Alliance capable of "quarantining" the Franco-Russians. Italy could end up diplomatically isolated and colony-less, or drift towards France as she aligns her imperialist ambitions on the Adriatic, which would be at Austrian and Ottoman expense.
You're most likely right but are you sure the Russians wouldn't be able to contribute anything? I assumed that joint Franco-Russian efforts at helping establish and supply an Ethiopian Army would be enacted, with the Russians sending more advisors and equipment as the French supply the Ethiopians with capital. French concessions to border towns in eastern Ethiopia are plausible, similar to the British concession at Gambela which allowed for both sides to profit but the Ethiopians reminded the British who was dominant. I'm not sure about Britain becoming aligned with Germany, considering the arms race and Kaiser Wilhelm III's idiotic tendencies.

I agree.
 
You're most likely right but are you sure the Russians wouldn't be able to contribute anything? I assumed that joint Franco-Russian efforts at helping establish and supply an Ethiopian Army would be enacted, with the Russians sending more advisors and equipment as the French supply the Ethiopians with capital. French concessions to border towns in eastern Ethiopia are plausible, similar to the British concession at Gambela which allowed for both sides to profit but the Ethiopians reminded the British who was dominant. I'm not sure about Britain becoming aligned with Germany, considering the arms race and Kaiser Wilhelm III's idiotic tendencies.

I agree.

Its not that they won't be able to, per say: advisors and cultural resources to "civilize" them are likely to come along. But in most material cases any continuing supply would be at the very end of a long, highly vulnerable chain of supply and so would be both unreliable and at a huge competitive advantage compared to French sources (IE: There's no reason to favor a Russian source over a French one) which would lead to French commercial and military domination in terms of the outside support/influence.

As for the German and British relations... if you're going back to Adwa than their rivalry is in its infancy and it woulden't be a huge step for them to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement: particulary since Britain is perceiving France as the primary threat as opposed to Germany, meaning there's less bad blood between the two nations and thus more leiancey being granted to German naval programs (assuming they're even going to pursue it as forcefully in the case of a detante with Britain; no need to build that large a fleet to meet doctrine if there's no threat of a war with GB), and Willy could easily turn his bombastic nature on the "Slavic Menace" and French expansion, particularly if his cousion is willing to play to his ego as part of a broader British diplomatic policy. I think you're being a little over deterministic to assume GB and Germany are doomed to come to blows
 
Its not that they won't be able to, per say: advisors and cultural resources to "civilize" them are likely to come along. But in most material cases any continuing supply would be at the very end of a long, highly vulnerable chain of supply and so would be both unreliable and at a huge competitive advantage compared to French sources (IE: There's no reason to favor a Russian source over a French one) which would lead to French commercial and military domination in terms of the outside support/influence.

As for the German and British relations... if you're going back to Adwa than their rivalry is in its infancy and it woulden't be a huge step for them to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement: particulary since Britain is perceiving France as the primary threat as opposed to Germany, meaning there's less bad blood between the two nations and thus more leiancey being granted to German naval programs (assuming they're even going to pursue it as forcefully in the case of a detante with Britain; no need to build that large a fleet to meet doctrine if there's no threat of a war with GB), and Willy could easily turn his bombastic nature on the "Slavic Menace" and French expansion, particularly if his cousion is willing to play to his ego as part of a broader British diplomatic policy. I think you're being a little over deterministic to assume GB and Germany are doomed to come to blows
Interesting. Does this mean that Russian emigres/settlers make a significant minority in the Ethiopian Empire and Eastern Orthodoxy becomes prominent?

You might be right.
 
Interesting. Does this mean that Russian emigres/settlers make a significant minority in the Ethiopian Empire and Eastern Orthodoxy becomes prominent?

You might be right.

Um... no. Why would they, when Russia itself still has a massive Siberian frontier that needs settling? There aren't a great deal of pressures for settler colonialism for Russia; what you're far more likely to see is a small number of highly prominent Russians in the courts and larger population centers as taking visable roles as a "cultural creme de creme" bringing things like the ballet, literature, ect.
 
Um... no. Why would they, when Russia itself still has a massive Siberian frontier that needs settling? There aren't a great deal of pressures for settler colonialism for Russia; what you're far more likely to see is a small number of highly prominent Russians in the courts and larger population centers as taking visable roles as a "cultural creme de creme" bringing things like the ballet, literature, ect.
What's the maximum number of Russians that could settle in Ethiopia?
 
What's the maximum number of Russians that could settle in Ethiopia?

Could or Would? Technically, the Czar could just FORCE a bunch of people to go if he really wants to establish a Russian presence there, but if we're talking about those who'd willingly migrate we're probably talking only a few hundred, mostly upper or middle class.
 
The French Empire with its colonies was quite large in 1930s, given the French West Africa. Before that time, the Empire would have been escalating to its zenith; therefore, France helping Ethiopia after the first I-E war could have been possible.
 
Fashoda likely ends a bit differently if France has Ethiopia as an ally in the region. France gets Sudan but I imagine the British won't let them take Madagascar here (IIRC Britain okaying French Madagascar had a lot to do with Britain taking Egypt historically).

France's desire for a Dakar-Djibouti Railroad is likely much more successful here, with all the military and economic implications that come with it.

I wonder what the effect of French and Russian support for Ethiopia would mean with regard to the country's development. A more organized Ethiopia with a less feudal economy, more international trade, and a more modern military perhaps?

Britain likely would look to bolstering the Ottomans a bit in order to balance a significant Russo-French presence in the horn. This could have knock-on effects come 1912/1913 when the Ottomans face off against Italy and the Balkan League.

Germany is very interested in bolstering the Ottomans and containing Russia as well. If the French and Russians are the big threat, then I agree that Britain goes with Germany.

Broadly the alliance structure emerging looks like

Britain-Ottomans-Germany-Austria
France-Russia-Ethiopia-Serbia-Montenegro

Italians siding with whoever gives them the most gains.
If France-Russia is defeated, there's Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, Djibouti, other African colonies, and maybe Montenegro (plus maybe a cession of Trentino and Goriza-Gradisca for playing ball)
If Britain-Ottomans-Germany is defeated, there's Malta, Libya, Trentino-Alto Adige, Dalmatia, Albania, Istria, Rijeka, Ljubljana, Dodecanese, Aosta, and maybe more.
 
Italians siding with whoever gives them the most gains.
If France-Russia is defeated, there's Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, Djibouti, other African colonies, and maybe Montenegro (plus maybe a cession of Trentino and Goriza-Gradisca for playing ball)
If Britain-Ottomans-Germany is defeated, there's Malta, Libya, Trentino-Alto Adige, Dalmatia, Albania, Istria, Rijeka, Ljubljana, Dodecanese, Aosta, and maybe more.

You forget the big colonial plumb from an Italian point of veiw: : Ethiopia itself. While I question weather Italy would be weighed with any particular importance as a power in this timeline, being geographically isolated, poor, agrarian, and a miltary pigmy in addition to internally unstable.

Though, that also raised the question of the gate of Madagascar and Morocco in this timeline. Without an understanding colonially between France and GB, both seem far more likely to maintain their soverginity
 
You forget the big colonial plumb from an Italian point of veiw: : Ethiopia itself. While I question weather Italy would be weighed with any particular importance as a power in this timeline, being geographically isolated, poor, agrarian, and a miltary pigmy in addition to internally unstable.

Though, that also raised the question of the gate of Madagascar and Morocco in this timeline. Without an understanding colonially between France and GB, both seem far more likely to maintain their soverginity

Would Italy have the reach to get Ethiopia in a Great War? I'd think they'd be very Mediterranean and European-oriented in any conflict. Britain's control of Suez and naval dominance makes me think they'd side with Germany, Britain, and the Ottomans.

I imagine Morocco and Madagascar would either be neutral or anti-France. Maybe the Agadir incident is the basis for the Great War here?
 
Would Italy have the reach to get Ethiopia in a Great War? I'd think they'd be very Mediterranean and European-oriented in any conflict. Britain's control of Suez and naval dominance makes me think they'd side with Germany, Britain, and the Ottomans.

I imagine Morocco and Madagascar would either be neutral or anti-France. Maybe the Agadir incident is the basis for the Great War here?

If they align with Germany, Britain, and the Ottomans (Which I thought goes without saying in the event of staking a claim on Ethiopia, considering the entire premise of the timeline is they are in the Franco-Russian alliance). The Eastern Med is a (let's call it the Quadruple Alliance, with Habsburgs as the 4th party) lake, so an Italian expedition can be sent to Somaliland without running into any Double Entente resistance. Indeed, it's perfect for the inland see/brown water navy that a Med. locked Italy possesses, and if for some reason they lack the transport capacity I'm sure the British merchant marine would be more than happy to give them a lift. That, or a British colonial force, possibly backed by Ottoman forces and the Dervish State, could take it and hand it over to Italian garrisons/administrators on their way in from the Pacific.
 
Its not that they won't be able to, per say: advisors and cultural resources to "civilize" them are likely to come along.
This reminds me - how would Ethiopian culture be affected by Russian cultural resources and whatnot? Considering that Ethiopia by the late 1890s consisted mostly of Tigrayan-Amharic provinces, the northern cultures might be Russified and the Russians could attempt Russification of the southern Ethiopian peoples.
 
This reminds me - how would Ethiopian culture be affected by Russian cultural resources and whatnot? Considering that Ethiopia by the late 1890s consisted mostly of Tigrayan-Amharic provinces, the northern cultures might be Russified and the Russians could attempt Russification of the southern Ethiopian peoples.

Let me answer that question with another question: how well did "X-ification" work anywhere else in Africa?
 
Let me answer that question with another question: how well did "X-ification" work anywhere else in Africa?
Good point, I assumed that Russo-Cossack culture could have an effect on the northern Ethiopian peoples - weren't both the Tigrayan-Amharic and Cossack cultures militarized to an extent? Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
Another question for anyone willing to answer. Let's say, the House of Solomon enters into personal union with the House of Romanov when Ethiopia joins the Franco-Russian alliance as the heir/heiress to the throne is married to some Russian noble in line for the throne. What happens next?
 
Good point, I assumed that Russo-Cossack culture could have an effect on the northern Ethiopian peoples - weren't both the Tigrayan-Amharic and Cossack cultures militarized to an extent? Correct me if I'm wrong.

How many Cossaks do you seriously think are going to be going to Ethiopia? Not enough to even remotely be on the "influencing" end of the assimilation scale.

Another question for anyone willing to answer. Let's say, the House of Solomon enters into personal union with the House of Romanov when Ethiopia joins the Franco-Russian alliance as the heir/heiress to the throne is married to some Russian noble in line for the throne. What happens next?

ASB, more or less. Seriously; an early 20th century interracial royal marriage?
 
This reminds me - how would Ethiopian culture be affected by Russian cultural resources and whatnot? Considering that Ethiopia by the late 1890s consisted mostly of Tigrayan-Amharic provinces, the northern cultures might be Russified and the Russians could attempt Russification of the southern Ethiopian peoples.
Considering how little success Russification had in most of Russia during the Tsarist era, nothing like this is going to happen.
 
Changing the subject from Russian settlement in Ethiopia, what would Ethiopia look like in the interwar years as a result of the Franco-Russian alliance?
 
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