WI:Franco-Polish alliance vs Austria-Prussia on Austrian War of Succession

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by kasumigenx, Feb 14, 2019 at 4:57 AM.

  1. kasumigenx Well-Known Member

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    I am thinking of a Franco-Polish alliance vs Austria-Prussia on Austrian War of Succession, is this possible

    If the French win, Poland at least gets Upper Silesia and Pomerelia at least securing Vistula in the West the Lorraine at least goes to France and optimally Austrian Netherlands gets partitioned.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019 at 6:34 AM
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  2. Jan Olbracht Well-Known Member

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    French involvement in Polish Succession question was meant to just throw PLC under the bus to distract attention of Austria.
     
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  3. kasumigenx Well-Known Member

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    I was actually thinking of wettins allying with french against austria.
     
  4. Derek Pullem Butterfly Killer Donor

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    Not seeing why Augustus trades Russian and Austria support for French? Almost guaranteeing to lose in Poland.

    Might be fun to see a Wettin in Lorraine though.
     
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  5. kasumigenx Well-Known Member

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    Actually what i am thinking is a wettin french alliance in Austrian war of succession.

    Sorry Typo my bad.
     
  6. Derek Pullem Butterfly Killer Donor

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    Ah, ok.

    Won't Frederick the Great clean up Poland and we end up with an early partition?
     
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  7. kasumigenx Well-Known Member

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    The pod here is MT marrying fred the great causing a war with france and poland.
     
  8. Derek Pullem Butterfly Killer Donor

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    I would have thought that would bring Russia in against the Austro-Prussians - same probable outcome though - partition of Poland and partial annexation of Saxony.

    French would get Lorraine early I'd guess and there would be Austrian losses in Italy.

    Austrian Netherlands is big question mark. I'm guessing Britain would would be conflicted as they wouldn't like Austro-Prussia and they wouldn't like a French presence in the Low Countries - opportunity for a third side with the Dutch? Hanover would be threatened by Austro-Prussia too.
     
  9. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    If you are talking about theAustrian Succession, how Prussian and Austrian interests could be reconciled? Young Fritz wanted Iglesias more then he wanted the Royal Prussia.
     
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  10. The Undead Martyr GOP Delenda Est

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    If the two are united in personal union the matter becomes moot.
    Assuming they have kids which given Fritz's proclivities is not certain.
     
  11. Nivek Resident Videogame Expert

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    With MT(THAT seems at least she liked when they were not figthing unlike his OTL impossed wife) at least he would get a heir and a spare before each one focus in war and politics respectly.

    The original austria plan was to swap the Austria Netherlands for Bavaria from the Wittelsbach
     
  12. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    I was also thinking about scenario in which Young Fritz is marrying Maria-Theresa as perhaps the only possible way to accomplish the goal. But how likely this would be even theoretically?

    Fritz converting into Catholicism while remaining a ruler of Protestant Prussia, would this be possible?

    OTOH, what would be chances of a Protestant husband of M-T to became elected as an emperor?

    Of course, we can assume that Fritz passes Prussia to his brother Henry, converts, marries, gets elected as an Emperor while a new King of Prussia is not trying to play OTL's Fritz in the terms of political affiliations. Then alliance stays and Prussia ends up with the Royal Prussia and Austria (of which M-T is a queen) is trying to grab a peace of the PLC (a hostile party) with or without Prussian help while France in alliance with Bavaria is trying to invade Hapsburgs' hereditary lands and Prussian possessions as well.
    Britain remains on the Austrian side as in OTL but Russian position may change in a view of the Austrian's and Prussian's attempts to partition the PLC: in OTL Austria was a traditional Austrian ally but it also considered the PLC as de facto Russian vassal and, unlike Catherine II, Elizabeth may not take it easy (Catherine was persuaded that the 1st Partition was just a re-balancing after Russian acquisitions following victory over the Ottomans but this would not be the case with Elizabeth). Of course, Russian army of that time was in a rather lousy shape but the PLC as a theater of a war is much closer than the theaters of the 7YW, which removes at least some of the supply problems.
     
  13. Nivek Resident Videogame Expert

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    The wettins pulled it , catholic leader of mostly protestant Saxony so is possible
     
  14. JCVocke Well-Known Member

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    Saxony, ruled by King Augustus III of Poland, Was allied to France historically at the start of the War of Austrian Succession. Poland of course contributed nothing to the war because it was Post-Deluge Poland and both sides could easily find someone in the Polish Sejm to veto military action. That's unlikely to change without a major PoD well before the beginning of the war.

    Saxony then switched sides following the Hilariously Crushing Defeat of the Franco-Bavarian Armies in Germany which saw Bavaria completely occupied by Austria. Austria then went on to push France entirely from Germany, and it took Prussia re-entering the war on France's Side to actually turn the war back against Austria.

    If Prussia is actually allied to Austria then Austria has almost assuredly won the war, probably decisively. And I mean DECISIVELY. I'm talking "The Holy Roman Empire is now Centralized and Austria will probably be retaking territory in Alsace from France" levels of Decisively here. Unless Russia and Britain are both outright supporting France from the start, the Austria-Prussia Combination is simply far stronger than France and a few German Medium Powers. Austria was able to kick the French and their Allies out of their territory despite having to guard against and fight Prussia at the same time. If Prussia is now fighting on Austria's Side and has been from the start, then this is even more hilariously 1-sided. Even if Prussian Involvement replaces British Involvement that's a fine trade as it not only gives Austria a very good army on their side, but removes their most pressing foe.

    Poland won't contribute. They can't, their government won't allow it as it is too easily bought off. It didn't contribute historically despite Augustus III being allied to both sides at different parts of the war. Even when Prussia occupied Saxony Poland didn't do anything.

    In addition you have to remember that at this time Prussia isn't a Great Power, they're just a Medium German State like Bavaria or Saxony, or at least that is how they are seen, and thus everyone isn't going to look at this Marriage and immediately Panic and consider it The End of The World. This isn't France inheriting Spain, this is Austria obtaining Naples-Sicily.

    Other countries probably won't even think Austria-Prussia is a match for France-Bavaria at the start, so you'll probably have a good portion of the early war where Britain is either Neutral, or actively still supporting Austria in an effort to keep The Southern Netherlands out of France's Hands and only realizes the Monster they've helped create later on.

    Its entirely possible and likely that the Prussian performance in this war still changes that, and changes it fast enough for people to intervene, but if that intervention happens after Austria-Prussia have already Decisively beaten all of the other German Minors that allied with France and pushed French Armies back into France, that's probably too little too late. At this point Austria-Prussia can do basically whatever they want in Germany and no one is really in a position to stop them. Even France+Russia I think is unlikely to be able to beat them. Britain intervening to help France just gets Hannover Occupied as well, giving Austria-Prussia complete and undisputed control of all of Germany.

    Hence "The Holy Roman Empire is now Centralized and Austria will probably be retaking territory in Alsace from France".
     
  15. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    Maybe Fritz and Maria marry?
     
  16. krieger Well-Known Member

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    But Poland was a non-state then, to the point when it's own citizens didn't bother to protect Gdańsk (the biggest trade center) from (formally allied) Russian troops, and (formally hostile) Prussian forces had to protect it from Russians, so PLC would be beaten mercilessly. I see earlier partition - Fred gets the "ethnic Poland" (Greater Poland, Lesser Poland, Cuyavia, Pomerania, Mazovia) while Russia gets rest.
     
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  17. Nivek Resident Videogame Expert

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    Would they want to much poland? they want to reunited prussia via land and them might not cared, heck the austria/HRE might support a puppet poland later on
     
  18. krieger Well-Known Member

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    Prussia and Austria combined grabbed even more land than my proposal in 1795 OTL.
     
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  19. Bear Flag Oligarch Well-Known Member

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    Something interesting I came across while reading about the War of the Polish Succession is that Francis's mother and brother didn't want him to exchange Lorraine for Tuscany. If he caves in to them then Charles VI might have called the wedding off which could lead to Frederick and Maria getting married. But how would the WotPS have ended without the swap? Would Charles III have been Grand Duke of Tuscany instead of, or in addition to ruling Naples and Sicily? Or would Philip get either of those territories? And would Austria have gotten Parma in exchange? And what happens to Lorraine?
     
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  20. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    But here goes the problem: in 1772, 1793, 1795 Partitions happened with Russian agreement (well, IIRC, MT did a limited annexation before the 1st Partition was officially agreed upon). In that scenario you have Empress Elizabeth instead of Catherine II and their attitudes to the issue were not exactly the same. Elizabeth considered ALL PLC as her backyard (the main reason behind Russian anti-Prussian policy was to prevent Fritz from doing something to the PLC thus diminishing Russian influence).

    While the PLC at that time ceased to be a military factor of any importance, Russia was one and it could join the opponents of Austrian-Prussian coalition. IIRC (not quite sure), the Russian troops already had been garrisoned on PLC territory so the whole thing may get messy if Elizabeth is not on board.
     
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