whatever the Japanese success or lack thereof, the Soviets are likely to end any significant aid to the Republican side. that by itself not enough to cause abrupt end to the Spanish Civil War, but enough to cause a real change during 1937, possibly the Republican territory split by the end of that year?
by 1939, everyone was exhausted in Spain, but a year of two earlier? what if France panics and tries to evict the Italians from Majorca? or even move into Catalonia?