WI Franco-Italian War spun from Spanish Civil War?

what if a Franco-Italian War (or even a more limited conflict) spun from the Spanish Civil War?

there is a current thread dealing with Japan striking"North" (USSR) in 1937? https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/japan-heads-north-1937-impact-on-europe.476877/

whatever the Japanese success or lack thereof, the Soviets are likely to end any significant aid to the Republican side. that by itself not enough to cause abrupt end to the Spanish Civil War, but enough to cause a real change during 1937, possibly the Republican territory split by the end of that year?

historically Italy was on the Balearics (Majorca) and doubled their bomber force at the beginning of 1938 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_occupation_of_Majorca

by 1939, everyone was exhausted in Spain, but a year of two earlier? what if France panics and tries to evict the Italians from Majorca? or even move into Catalonia?
 
It could probably happen with with a more assertive France, historically they weren't too happy with Britains appeasment policy. France could try to blockade Spain to Italy, Italy sends ships anyway, and we see a similar situation with the Cuban Missile Crisis except we don't have exceptional luck to keep both sides from firing at each other.
 
It could probably happen with with a more assertive France, historically they weren't too happy with Britains appeasment policy. France could try to blockade Spain to Italy, Italy sends ships anyway, and we see a similar situation with the Cuban Missile Crisis except we don't have exceptional luck to keep both sides from firing at each other.

during this period they were trying to finalize a Franco-Soviet treaty, if the USSR is suddenly "otherwise engaged" (my POD, they could always just stumble into conflict) they might "panic" into wanting to prop the Republican government to not be surrounded by Fascist regimes?
 
In this scenario, thus, France suddenly goes to war against Italy in 1937, while bordering as always with Germany, and with a weaker Republican Spain to the South, while Britain continues with the recently AGNA-based appeasement. And, the Soviet Union isn't helping the Republic, nor is of any help otherwise.

"More assertive" seems too bland for the France we know of in that year.

If you want this to work, you have to find ways for France to get some help, not to try this utterly single-handed. Or you have to build a more cunning casus belli.
 
In this scenario, thus, France suddenly goes to war against Italy in 1937, while bordering as always with Germany, and with a weaker Republican Spain to the South, while Britain continues with the recently AGNA-based appeasement. And, the Soviet Union isn't helping the Republic, nor is of any help otherwise.

"More assertive" seems too bland for the France we know of in that year.

If you want this to work, you have to find ways for France to get some help, not to try this utterly single-handed. Or you have to build a more cunning casus belli.

gather they were concerned about Majorca especially, as they have the natural defense between Spain (if it comes to that)

Adm. Darlan thought to attack Italy before they even declared war in WWII, probably a lot of bluster? but they have have an advantage in BBs (IIRC) for a window of time?

could speculate "Big Head" Mussolini, if the SCW tilted in his favor might start an even more extensive buildup of his air force on Majorca to drive the advantage?
 
you have to build a more cunning casus belli.

well ... Mussolini stepped all over the Greeks after Corfu and likely would return to them at some point? the Republican side really, really needs France to take a more active role? and the Soviets would likely summon their operative Orlov back to USSR? (for a short unhappy retirement?)

and if the (speculative) Soviet-Japanese conflict was occupying one devil, maybe the Nazis would like to see France similarly occupied?

and Yugoslavia, or any one of the groups in Yugoslavia, would have to see Italy as a threat once they have wound up their involvement in the SCW?
 
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Adm. Darlan's quote from 1937 "If we consider, at the same time, that the liberty of this sea is for Italy a question of life or death, and even more so for us, it seems that any offensive action by our armies that has not been preceded by conquest of the Mediterranean will be useless action" Struggle for the Middle Sea by O'Hara
 
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