WI Franco allowed Nazi troops to march to Gibraltar

BlondieBC

Banned
Franco was not a Idiot, he knew what happen if he let Operation Felix happened.

The British would take Canary Islands
and in 1943 would Americans landing on Spain beaches, unleashing General Patton...
After the WW2 Britain get Gibraltar plus additional territories (Canary Islands ?)
Franco if he survived is in Nuremberg for Trail
While Spain become a Democratic Republic

And this largely explains why Franco did not join the Axis, but in an ATL where Hitler insisted on passage, the choice becomes different. The loss of Spain versus the loss of some minor islands. ITTL, Franco yield to the Nazis demands in some limited way becomes easy to imagine.

And I think here lies the more important part of these discussions on Gibraltar that we have from time to time. Implied in most of these ATLs is an implied change of German strategy to a much higher focus on the Med Basin. And the change in strategy means a lot of potential changes in the realm of Nazi actions with the Soviets. Yes Hitler was a mercurial type personalty so it is possible Hitler just insists, but even in this type of scenario, there are lots of changes done by lower level officers to get the plan to work. And these are hugely important.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Not to mention the over 30 miles of tunnels, for a comparison that's THREE times that of Iwo Jima, hundreds of feet under The Rock.
Even if Schwerer Gustav could have been deployed over the Spanish rail network, would even its ordnance have been effective?

It does not need to be effect. Nor does the gun need to arrive. We have the actual plans for taking Gibraltar, and this gun is not used. We are looking at a force of about half artillery, and half other stuff. As soon as Gibraltar comes under the fire of these guns, it useless as an air or naval base. And it will fall, the question is how and when. All isolated fortress fall. A few months into the siege or less, the Nazi control this rock regardless of UK actions.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
It wouldn't just be the cheap Tungsten and various other metals in the Iberian peninsula, but also denying the Brits access to the Mediterranean via Gibraltar, a naval base there, and extending Axis naval abilities quite a ways into the Atlantic.

On balance the Brits arguably have their blockade made easier in some ways while perhaps also having a more worried US public while the Axis has to feed, fuel, and supply Iberia with everything it needs to survive. Plus they get the Azores, which, while not yet having enough CC long range aircraft to really exploit it, can at least use it as a naval base in the mid-Atlantic.

So the ticking clock on the Axis is moving more quickly and louder the question is can they exploit the gains to make a decisive impact on the war before the burdens of their new ally decisively outweigh any benefits. Assuming not the likely the battle of the Atlantic can be won sooner than May 1943 and the Allies have to invade Spain in late 1942/early 1943 rather than North Africa or France. It would be highly interesting to know what Vichy France would do in this case given at least the delayed invasion of North Africa. Plus would the Axis abandon Libya if they have to heavily invest in the Spanish front? Much would of course depend on whether or not Barbarossa happens ITTL.

Interesting question. Lot of variables here so lets start with the easy stuff.

  • Have to assume the invasion of Soviet Union still happens, or we have an Axis win via a butterfly. Or at least very, very slow Anglo-American win.
  • Have to assume Germans don't divert so many forces that it is a disaster in attacking Russia in 1941. Or frees up enough Axis forces for a win in the east.
  • As to USA invasion plans, my readings indicated that the USA always planned to attack on Southern most flank of Axis in Africa. For example, there were discussion at high levels that if the Vichy were to be actively Axis, the invasion might well occur in West Africa. Bringing Spain into the war does not shift the invasion north, but if it is shifted, it is shifted, the shift is south. The basic military strategy for amphibious operations is to land in a weakly defended area, organize, the attack with good supplies.
  • The tungsten is interesting. I think this is a big advantage for the Axis, but I can't easily quantify. I do think Portugal will tend to fall if Spain enters the war for any reason.
Now to the fun stuff for me. Can this win the war for the Axis instead of merely cause the Americans to have to grind more to get to Germany? While I think owning the western Med helps the Italians a lot in Africa, I don't think it will allow the Italians to take the Suez much less exploit the Red Sea. As the Axis advance, the supply situation keeps getting easier for the UK and harder for the Italians. And even taking the Suez just means the UK has to bottle up the Red Sea and hold in the Sinai which can still be supplied. So I think we just see attrition here. I don't happen to have the North African campaign memorized on the Order of Battle, but I think the net effect from OTL is some flow of Nazi resources from North Africa to the Russian campaign, and the net flow is in the order of magnitude of regiments and squadrons. Useful, but not decisive in any given month.

So then we get to the Battle of the Atlantic. Any surface German naval forces can be based now outside of easy bomber range for the UK. And in theory the Italian Navy can come out in mass for battle, but I don't think this is likely. The UK will keep a stronger force to counter, and if push comes to shove, I think the USA will informally commit naval resources. Our plans called for occupation of islands to prevent the Nazi from taking over, so it is not really a stretch to see USA naval forces in the Azores as a part of this plan. Or land units for that matter.

So then we get to the naval war. Presumably, the Germans and Italians will base medium bombers and naval aviation in Spain and Portugal. These will cause slightly increased losses and force the Allies to move shipping farther west. The limited shipping that goes to the South Atlantic. The detour is measured in days, maybe a week each way, so the Allies may lose a few % cargo capacity. This does not seem like a war winner at first blush since it would seem to do things like delay the 8th Air Force becoming active by a few weeks to a few months.

The biggest direct impact I can see is the U-boats moving South which will force the UK to form convoys farther south and strain destroyer resources. This would take a good bit of modeling to get right, but it does not seem like a war winner. My guess, just a guess, is we again see a few % loss of shipping to the UK.

So when I add this up, I don't see a win for the Axis on the first pass. We see single digit decreases in shipping, few more divisions in Russia, few more squadrons in Russia, bombing offensive being weeks behind OTL. Italy stays in war til end cause American forces just can't get there fast enough. Looks like post war Soviet wank really. Now if the butterflies add up enough and in series, then maybe. But I have to be a bit of an optimist for the Nazi. You have to have Spain not turn into a net resource drain for the Heer. I then have to have things such as the equivalent of OTL Afrika Corp added to Barbarossa. Then this extra Panzer Corp or Panzer Army has to accomplish something important (Leningrad falls, much better Moscow result, holding farther east in South in 1941 so 1942 operations go better). I then have to believe the Italians apply equal or greater pressure to the British in Egypt to keep the UK busy. Then I need 1942 in the east to go much better due to weaker Soviet forces than OTL and some additional gains by Germans in 1941. And I need absolute great performance in 1942 by Heer. Then the Heer can knock out the Soviets before the USA enters the war with large number of forces in mid 1943.

So to me at least, I think the odds of this action winning the war for the Axis is will under 5% but probably over 1%. Interesting to discuss but quite a long shot.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Churchill was prone to hyperbole & in the last fifty years he's become a source one cites at risk. Churchills pronouncements are more indicative of his plans and efforts than actual conditions.

100% endorse this position. While I normally argue this in a different war on different issues, Churchill is the type of source that always needs to be fact checked. Churchill is really more of a skill propagandaist than an accurate historian in these matters. And I don't mean that as a criticism, he did what needed to be done in the PR area, and did it so well, that many don't think of him in the realm of similarly skilled men such as Goebbels. Or vastly less skilled leaders like Kaiser Wilhelm II.
 
It does not need to be effect. Nor does the gun need to arrive. We have the actual plans for taking Gibraltar, and this gun is not used. We are looking at a force of about half artillery, and half other stuff. As soon as Gibraltar comes under the fire of these guns, it useless as an air or naval base. And it will fall, the question is how and when. All isolated fortress fall. A few months into the siege or less, the Nazi control this rock regardless of UK actions.
Towards the end of 1940 the governor of Gibraltar asked for supplies to withstand a siege lasting 6 months. Which suggests to me that for the last 6 months of that year the fortress could withstand a siege lasting less than 6 months.

IIRC Hitler considered conducting Operation Felix in January or February 1941 because the forces required might be needed elsewhere from March 1941 onwards.

So based on that Gibraltar would surrender in August 1941 at the latest. That is assuming Operation Felix begins in February 1941 and the colony had received the 6 months worth of supplies.

The British Government also thought that Gibraltar would become useless as an air and naval base once it came under artillery bombardment.

That leaves the ability of the British coast artillery at Gibraltar and in particular the seven 9.2" guns. How easy is it to knock them out with artillery or by bombing? How much ammunition do they have? Axis surface warships and merchant shipping will be unable to move from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean and back until Gibraltar's coast artillery is put out of action.
 
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Deleted member 1487

100% endorse this position. While I normally argue this in a different war on different issues, Churchill is the type of source that always needs to be fact checked. Churchill is really more of a skill propagandaist than an accurate historian in these matters. And I don't mean that as a criticism, he did what needed to be done in the PR area, and did it so well, that many don't think of him in the realm of similarly skilled men such as Goebbels. Or vastly less skilled leaders like Kaiser Wilhelm II.
To quote again:
The First Lord of the Admiralty A. V. Alexander and Admiral of the Fleet Dudley Pound, the First Sea Lord (professional head of the Royal Navy), concurred with the Prime Minister Winston Churchill that the loss of Malta would be

... a disaster of [the] first magnitude to the British Empire, and probably [would be] fatal in the long run to the defence of the Nile Valley.

— Churchill[10]

So it wasn't simply Churchill saying that or writing it; it was in the official history of Britain's war effort and backed up by the First Lord of the Admiralty and Admiral of the Fleet.
 
Now to the fun stuff for me. Can this win the war for the Axis instead of merely cause the Americans to have to grind more to get to Germany?

You're assuming no more amphib D-Day, just because the allies have a foot on the european ground. But I think this is wrong. Afaik, there are very few places where a modern army can cross the Pyrenees. Such places would be (relatively) easy to block and/or defend, leaving the allied armies with the grueling task of smashing past entrenched mountain troops. Not to mention the massive logistics tail required to cross the entire iberian peninsula. Spain would be a good place to place bomber bases to support Italy and the med, but to get to Germany, the UK would still be the best start, imho.
 
You're assuming no more amphib D-Day, just because the allies have a foot on the european ground. But I think this is wrong. Afaik, there are very few places where a modern army can cross the Pyrenees. Such places would be (relatively) easy to block and/or defend, leaving the allied armies with the grueling task of smashing past entrenched mountain troops. Not to mention the massive logistics tail required to cross the entire iberian peninsula. Spain would be a good place to place bomber bases to support Italy and the med, but to get to Germany, the UK would still be the best start, imho.
The British Armed forces thought landing in the Iberian Peninsula was a bad idea too.

About 25 years ago there was a BBCTV documentary series about Winston Churchill which IIRC was presented by Martin Gilbert.

In the episode about the later part of WWII there was a section where Churchill suggested that Operation Overlord be via Portugal instead of an opposed landing on the north coast of France. He instructed Sir Alan Brooke to have the Joint Planning Staff of the Chiefs of Staff Sub-Committee of the Committee of Imperial Defence compile a feasibility study.

The conclusion of the study was that it would be worse than a landing in northern France. Brooke presented it to Churchill. Then he told Churchill how much time the Joint Planning Staff had spent compiling it and told Churchill to stop wasting his time. Or words to that effect.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Towards the end of 1940 the governor of Gibraltar asked for supplies to withstand a siege lasting 6 months. Which suggests to me that for the last 6 months of that year the fortress could withstand a siege lasting less than 6 months.

IIRC Hitler considered conducting Operation Felix in January or February 1941 because the forces required might be needed elsewhere from March 1940 onwards.

So based on that Gibraltar would surrender in August 1941 at the latest. That is assuming Operation Felix begins in February 1941 and the colony had received the 6 months worth of supplies.

The British Government also thought that Gibraltar would become useless as an air and naval base once it came under artillery bombardment.

That leaves the ability of the British coast artillery at Gibraltar and in particular the seven 9.2" guns. How easy is it to knock them out with artillery or by bombing? How much ammunition do they have? Axis surface warships and merchant shipping will be unable to move from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean and back until Gibraltar's coast artillery is put out of action.

The food limit gives a maximum, not a minimum siege length in many ways. While Gibraltar might well last 6 months, I think under 2 is more likely.

As to the guns it depends if they can be fully withdrawn into protection. If not, splinters will tend to disable. If yes, it is hard to get an exact hit. As to gunnery on surface shipping, it is probably not that big a deal. Bit hard to see merchant shipping running down the coast of Spain past Gibraltar from the Atlantic side. Nothing really stopping a lot of British subs from hanging out around there. And I don't see the Italians being brave with the fleet even if Gibraltar falls on the first day (yes, basically impossible).

I also don't think it has to be Operation Felix. We are talking about an ATL, so Hitler go decision could be as soon as the Fall of France or later than Operation Felix. And since the siege could be a month or so to 6 months long, we easily get a 18 month period that Gibraltar might fall. And of course, the date it falls has a huge impact on the ATL butterflies.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
To quote again:

So it wasn't simply Churchill saying that or writing it; it was in the official history of Britain's war effort and backed up by the First Lord of the Admiralty and Admiral of the Fleet.

I am not disputing your quotes. It is just that I have read a lot of British war related period stuff for this time, and the UK tends to exaggerate things. Glorify things. Make things sound more desperate. I can give you a whole list of quotes on how Jutland was so important. And a bunch of quotes how the UK won Jutland. Jutland was an indecisive German tactical win that even if I double or triple the HSF or Royal Navy losses (either choice), the war still ends within a few day of OTL.

I have also looked at the Nile and farther east in a great bit of detail. The logistics continue to get worse for the Axis and worse for the Allies until at least the Suez fails. Then we get issues of British subs can still enter the Med from the west and be supplied in places like Lebanon from ports in places like Basra, Jeddah, Eilat.

I also think as the Italians do better ITTL, we see fewer German forces committed to North Africa due to all the other urgent needs of the Heer.

So what we really have is a series of victories and some defeats by the Italians against a worse supplied UK forces. As the UK falls back towards the Nile river, the supply situation improves for the British to a situation better than OTL. And the Italians still have such a long supply tail to get supplies up. These series of battles will have a tendency to stall out. I am not disputing the Italians may take the Nile, I just don't think it is the most likely outcome.
 
As to the guns it depends if they can be fully withdrawn into protection. If not, splinters will tend to disable. If yes, it is hard to get an exact hit. As to gunnery on surface shipping, it is probably not that big a deal. Bit hard to see merchant shipping running down the coast of Spain past Gibraltar from the Atlantic side. Nothing really stopping a lot of British subs from hanging out around there. And I don't see the Italians being brave with the fleet even if Gibraltar falls on the first day (yes, basically impossible).
On the subject of the Italians...

Over the years that I have been on this site I have occasionally suggested this, but only tongue-in-cheek...

Franco, "Does a Mussolini," in June 1940. That is Germany is clearly winning the war and on the spur of the moment he decides to come to the aid of the winning side by declaring war on the UK and France.

The coast artillery guns at Gibraltar are silenced early enough to allow the RM to move to Brest to support Operation Sealion. Yes I've typed the S-word!
 
The coast artillery guns at Gibraltar are silenced early enough to allow the RM to move to Brest to support Operation Sealion. Yes I've typed the S-word!

If Gibraltar falls then Malta falls as well and the Suez Canal is the next domino to crash. By Sept the Kido Butai will be sailing through the Med on its way to join the mighty Axis invasion fleet.
 
For limiting the range of German and Italian naval and air attack, the Allies will have the Canaries and Spanish Sahara. With U.S. skill in building railroads fast, preparation for the invasion of North Africa is facilitated significantly. I am speaking of a troop and supply buildup in both locales and an ability to move troops in Spanish Sahara northwards without getting bogged down.
 
On the subject of the Italians...

Over the years that I have been on this site I have occasionally suggested this, but only tongue-in-cheek...

Franco, "Does a Mussolini," in June 1940. That is Germany is clearly winning the war and on the spur of the moment he decides to come to the aid of the winning side by declaring war on the UK and France.

The coast artillery guns at Gibraltar are silenced early enough to allow the RM to move to Brest to support Operation Sealion. Yes I've typed the S-word!

A rider bill is added to the Two Oceans Navy Act. It's now the Three Oceans Navy Act. Your move, Axis.
 
A rider bill is added to the Two Oceans Navy Act. It's now the Three Oceans Navy Act. Your move, Axis.
One: It's a joke, which is what tongue-in-cheek means.

Two: If it actually worked and the British Isles were successfully invaded - Game Over - as far as the European War was concerned.
 
On the subject of the Italians...

Over the years that I have been on this site I have occasionally suggested this, but only tongue-in-cheek...

Franco, "Does a Mussolini," in June 1940. That is Germany is clearly winning the war and on the spur of the moment he decides to come to the aid of the winning side by declaring war on the UK and France.

The coast artillery guns at Gibraltar are silenced early enough to allow the RM to move to Brest to support Operation Sealion. Yes I've typed the S-word!

Franco does a Mussolini as he actually was quite close to do in otl and declares war against UK and France. He invades the French Morocco as this was the plan for the Spanish army in North Africa. The French military commanders in North Africa fight back and, since they have stronger forces in the region and the Spanish army is in such a sorry logistical state (with little in the way of ammo and even food) they beat the Spanish forces back. Petain finds very difficult to persuade the French army in North Africa that surrendering to the Germans is such a great idea since the point of dropping out of the war was to preserve France and its colonial possessions. So France fights on and the British decide to shelve certain plan involving Somerville paying a visit to Mers el-Kebir as the MN is at that very moment very busy shelling Ceuta and Melilla alongside Force H and it would be bad manners to ask their allies to surrender their ships now that they seem so involved in fighting against their common enemies.

Hitler finds himself pressured to send forces to help the Spanish army in North Africa but it is likely that they will not arrive in time, even if the French surrender in Europe. It is likely that the war drags longer in France and that this puts a greater strain on the German forces. It is also likely that many German pilots captured by the French are not returned and Goering is already missing them so much.

Gibraltar eventually falls but the British do not feel too bad about it ("The Germans played a strong game in the Rock I must say") because they have blockaded the Canary Islands (which is easier with the French at their side) and plan to take these islands for a nice gentlemanly swap when the war is over and Franco is hanging from a gas station or something. There are some talks to keep one or two of them for naval bases and tourism though. Also someone has noticed that supplying Malta is far easier from Tunis than from Gibraltar.

The RM stays in port because those French battleships and battle cruisers look scary and they seem quite capable of doing their job alongside the Mediterranean Fleet and Graziani is looking nervously at the French build up beyond the Mareth Line. The stubborn Gauls are receiving plenty of weapons from the USA while the convoys Mussolini sends to him seem to have gotten the bad habit of sinking every time they meet a RN or MN cruiser and destroyer force. At least he knows that the British Desert Force is too small to do anything serious so he is confident that he will not have to worry much about what happens to the east.
 
Franco does a Mussolini as he actually was quite close to do in otl and declares war against UK and France. He invades the French Morocco as this was the plan for the Spanish army in North Africa. The French military commanders in North Africa fight back and, since they have stronger forces in the region and the Spanish army is in such a sorry logistical state (with little in the way of ammo and even food) they beat the Spanish forces back. Petain finds very difficult to persuade the French army in North Africa that surrendering to the Germans is such a great idea since the point of dropping out of the war was to preserve France and its colonial possessions. So France fights on and the British decide to shelve certain plan involving Somerville paying a visit to Mers el-Kebir as the MN is at that very moment very busy shelling Ceuta and Melilla alongside Force H and it would be bad manners to ask their allies to surrender their ships now that they seem so involved in fighting against their common enemies.

Hitler finds himself pressured to send forces to help the Spanish army in North Africa but it is likely that they will not arrive in time, even if the French surrender in Europe. It is likely that the war drags longer in France and that this puts a greater strain on the German forces. It is also likely that many German pilots captured by the French are not returned and Goering is already missing them so much.

Gibraltar eventually falls but the British do not feel too bad about it ("The Germans played a strong game in the Rock I must say") because they have blockaded the Canary Islands (which is easier with the French at their side) and plan to take these islands for a nice gentlemanly swap when the war is over and Franco is hanging from a gas station or something. There are some talks to keep one or two of them for naval bases and tourism though. Also someone has noticed that supplying Malta is far easier from Tunis than from Gibraltar.

The RM stays in port because those French battleships and battle cruisers look scary and they seem quite capable of doing their job alongside the Mediterranean Fleet and Graziani is looking nervously at the French build up beyond the Mareth Line. The stubborn Gauls are receiving plenty of weapons from the USA while the convoys Mussolini sends to him seem to have gotten the bad habit of sinking every time they meet a RN or MN cruiser and destroyer force. At least he knows that the British Desert Force is too small to do anything serious so he is confident that he will not have to worry much about what happens to the east.
Very entertaining!

And it brings up the serious point that Spain joining the war in June 1940 might well lead to France fighting on from its colonies.

I also agree that it probably leads to an earlier demise of the Canary Islands.

And I agree that Malta becomes much easier to supply. If anything it looses much of its importance because there would be several divisions of contre-torpillieurs at Tunis ready to swoop on the Italian convoys to Libya. We might also have a "Paris Express" of contre-torpillieurs shuttling supplies from Tunis to Malta.

Finally as you have alluded to there is a strong chance that Operation Compass is complemented by a French advance into Libya from Tunisia. If the French take Tripoli there can be no Afrika Korps because there would be no port still in Italian hands to send it to.

My nit picks are:
  1. No Force H. The French fleet in the western Mediterranean means there is no need for one. Therefore there is a stronger Home Fleet to contain the German surface raiders;
  2. The French bombarding Ceuta and Melilla. That would be a very dangerous undertaking due to the powerful Spanish coast artillery batteries on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar;
  3. Gotten. In the words of my nephew's English teacher, it should have been gotten rid of a long time ago.
 
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That leaves the ability of the British coast artillery at Gibraltar and in particular the seven 9.2" guns. How easy is it to knock them out with artillery or by bombing? How much ammunition do they have? Axis surface warships and merchant shipping will be unable to move from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean and back until Gibraltar's coast artillery is put out of action.

It might be instructive to examine how other isolated fortifications held out. None would be identical, but sorting through the details may give some clues.
 
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