WI Franco allowed Nazi troops to march to Gibraltar

[danteheadman]

Operation Felix was the codename for a proposed German seizure of Gibraltar during World War II, subject to the co-operation of Spanish caudillo Francisco Franco. It never went ahead, chiefly because of Franco's reluctance to enter the war. Hitler was unaware that his own envoy, Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, head of the Abwehr (intelligence service), was running a secret resistance movement and liaising closely with Franco by specifying particular terms that Hitler was certain to refuse. This ensured that the negotiations would fail.

Suppose Operation Felix happened, either because Franco was more willing to join the war or because Canaris wasn't working against the Nazis.

Could this have led to the Axis taking Gibraltar? If they did, how would that have hurt the British and Allied war effort?

 

[Ian_W]

Then Spain starves.

Without the RN allowing food or fuel into Spain, it cannot feed itself.

As far as the effect on the war effort, Germany needs to find another ten divisons or so to garrison Spain, and about a quarter of a million tons of grain a year.

The ten divisions aren't hard.

Torch is probably a landing in Spain.

 

[Lalli]

If Franco even just allow bypass of Germans through Spanish areas, Allies will not be happy. Even if they not declare war it means pretty big troubles for Spain. Franco's regime hardly can survive from that.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

If Spain protests and doesn't declare war on the the British, but still does not oppose the Germans, citing their inability to resist, the UK might not have a clear reason to really extend the blockade in 1940. Nor would they really want to have yet another enemy in Spain especially when Portugal could be easily overrun and Britain would be in no place to do anything about it, plus at the time I don't think the Spanish were helping the Germans like they were later, so the Brits would have reason to try and keep the Spaniards from jumping in the war fully and extending Uboat and Luftwaffe bases into the Iberian peninsula all the way to Portugal and West Africa. Furthermore the Brits in 1940-early 1941 don't really have the room to spare an invasion/occupation force for the Canaries and/or the Azores in a timely fashion and would have a huge set of problems to deal with by having Gibraltar isolated and soon taken with the Mediterranean then cut off to the Royal Navy (trying to move capital ships around Africa the long way would be a bit of a problem). Losing Gibraltar and soon Malta thereafter would create a fair bit of problems for the British, militarily and politically. The North African campaign in 1941 would be drastically altered as would probably the Greek campaign and Crete. Without Malta being able to be turned into the Rommel supply strangling base it was by late 1941 IOTL then it is hard seeing Operation Crusader working, given how close run that was IOTL. It would be tough situation for the British to deal with especially if Hitler then doesn't invade the USSR.

 

[RodentRevolution]

If Spain protests and doesn't declare war on the the British.

Spain would simply have to be assumed to be an enemy occupied country at best at this point and go under embargo aka blockade. Depending on the when Britain may or may not be able to find troops to defend metropolitan Portugal but otherwise it will sustain the Portuguese Government in exile. The loss to the combined Axis economies of losing the Spanish route for blockade busting operations likely far outweighs the gains of an expensive siege of Gibraltar.

 

[Lusitania]

Franco Will not do anything that will jeopardize Spain. Even allowing the Germans through means he brings the war to Spain.

The entry of the US into the war resulted in both Portugal and Spain who were selling tungsten and other material to the Nazis to be in trouble. It was only through diplomacy by British that US did not cut off both Iberian countries from US grain and oil exports.

Franco knew his country would suffer undo harm if he cooperated with the Nazis anymore than he already did.

Plus Hitler wanted an ally in the Iberian peninsula not a place to send thousands of troops that were Hadley needed on the eastern front. Franco’s terms to Hitler were such that Hitler gave up any notion of forcing or agreeing to Spanish terms.

 

[thaddeus]

if it was clear it would drive GB out of the war it would be good option, but that is not clear and it would add an ally that needs propping up, of which they already had a few.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Spain would simply have to be assumed to be an enemy occupied country at best at this point and go under embargo aka blockade. Depending on the when Britain may or may not be able to find troops to defend metropolitan Portugal but otherwise it will sustain the Portuguese Government in exile. The loss to the combined Axis economies of losing the Spanish route for blockade busting operations likely far outweighs the gains of an expensive siege of Gibraltar.

What blockade busting route? It was already throttled IOTL by the US and British to prevent this. At best some minor smuggling happened.
Besides the British would get screwed because of their imports from Spain:
https://www.nber.org/digest/oct06/w12228.html

This "First Embargo" held until the latter half of 1941, when Germany invaded Russia and Franco announced that Spanish "volunteers" were to fight alongside German forces. A second phase of sanctions, which the researchers called "the Squeeze," included a one-third reduction in Spain's allotment of oil, and American demands that its inspectors be allowed on Spanish soil to monitor the importation and consumption of oil. The Americans also wanted Spain to recall its troops from the Russian front. The British were less enthusiastic about these demands, worried that they might interfere with Britain's crucial imports of iron ore and potash from Spain. For its part, Spain swallowed the humiliating conditions imposed on it, but delayed withdrawing its troops from the east until October 1943 - and even then did not recall all of them.

 

[Ian_W]

What blockade busting route? It was already throttled IOTL by the US and British to prevent this. At best some minor smuggling happened.
Besides the British would get screwed because of their imports from Spain:
https://www.nber.org/digest/oct06/w12228.html

Lets work through some logic here.

If there are vital British imports from Spain, and the Germans have enough influence with the Spanish government to have them allow German troops through to attack Gibraltar, then what are the odds on the Germans allowing those vital British imports to continue ?

This is ignoring the issue of how the British are supposed to get said imports past the German air- and u-boat bases in south-west France, of course.

Before Franco agrees to this, someone has to tell him where the food is coming from.

Yes, the British could do what Wiking always wants them to do, and drink a couple of gallons of lead paint and then do exactly what is in the interests of the Nazis.

But it would be good to remember that the British attacked a neutral French fleet at harbour to prevent it aiding the Germans. It's not a big jump to imagine the British going 'Alright then, the blockade is at 100%' if Spain allies with Germany and allows an attack on Gib.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Lets work through some logic here.

Oh this should be fun.

If there are vital British imports from Spain, and the Germans have enough influence with the Spanish government to have them allow German troops through to attack Gibraltar, then what are the odds on the Germans allowing those vital British imports to continue ?

Marching across the border, but Spain protesting without declaring war or resisting the march to Gibraltar to avoid full occupation would still leave them the ability to continue to do as they please to a point because they are not fully occupied and the Germans don't want full responsibility for feeding/fueling Spain, plus still wants their help getting the critical tungsten exports. The Germans to be desperate enough to march through Spain still will be doing it in the knowledge that full occupation would be more trouble than it's worth.

This is ignoring the issue of how the British are supposed to get said imports past the German air- and u-boat bases in south-west France, of course.

The way they did IOTL: via Portuguese and Spanish shipping.

Before Franco agrees to this, someone has to tell him where the food is coming from.

Part of the point of the OP is that the Germans throw caution to the wind and march across the border, daring Franco to resist them. IOTL they had the good sense to worry about that, ITTL they apparently aren't per OP. The only thing worse for Franco than not resisting the Germans is resisting them and dealing with the consequences.

Yes, the British could do what Wiking always wants them to do, and drink a couple of gallons of lead paint and then do exactly what is in the interests of the Nazis.

The British have every reason to want to keep from Spain officially becoming a member of the Axis by treating them as such if there is a limited German violation of their borders; if Spain officially sides with the Germans or submits to a full occupation then the Brits react accordingly. Otherwise there is an argument that there is more problems caused by being the ones to treat the Spanish as an enemy first before they actively become one.

But it would be good to remember that the British attacked a neutral French fleet at harbour to prevent it aiding the Germans. It's not a big jump to imagine the British going 'Alright then, the blockade is at 100%' if Spain allies with Germany and allows an attack on Gib.

If they formally ally with Germany then of course. If they don't, protest and refuse to cooperate, but don't actively resist to avoid full invasion and occupation then Britain is in a bit of a tough spot given their general position in late 1940-early 1941 and don't need to make Spain a full enemy. Attacking the French fleet caused some problems for the British that Churchill later regretted:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-Kébir#British–Vichy_hostilities

Churchill wrote "This was the most hateful decision, the most unnatural and painful in which I have ever been concerned".[22]Relations between Britain and France were severely strained for some time and the Germans enjoyed a propaganda coup. Somerville said that it was "...the biggest political blunder of modern times and will rouse the whole world against us...we all feel thoroughly ashamed...".[23]

Following the 3 July operation, Darlan ordered the French fleet to attack Royal Navy ships wherever possible; Pétain and his foreign minister Paul Baudouin overruled the order the next day. Military retaliation was conducted through ineffective air raids on Gibraltar but Baudouin noted that "the attack on our fleet is one thing, war is another". As sceptics had warned, there were also complications with the French empire; when French colonial forces defeated de Gaulle's Free French Forces at the Battle of Dakar in September 1940, recruitment for the Free French movement plummeted and Germany responded by permitting Vichy France to maintain its remaining ships armed, rather than demobilised.[31][32]

In early June 1940, about 13,500 civilians had been evacuated from Gibraltar to Casablanca in French Morocco. Following the capitulation of the French to the Germans and the attack on Mers-el-Kébir, the Vichy government found their presence an embarrassment. Later in June, 15 British cargo vessels arrived in Casablanca under Commodore Crichton, repatriating 15,000 French servicemen who had been rescued from Dunkirk. Once the French troops had disembarked, the ships were interned until the Commodore agreed to take away the evacuees, who, reflecting tensions generated after the attack on Mers-el-Kébir, were escorted to the ships at bayonet point minus many of their possessions.[33]

 

[Ian_W]

The British have every reason to want to keep from Spain officially becoming a member of the Axis by treating them as such if there is a limited German violation of their borders; if Spain officially sides with the Germans or submits to a full occupation then the Brits react accordingly. Otherwise there is an argument that there is more problems caused by being the ones to treat the Spanish as an enemy first before they actively become one.

If the Spanish have let German troops through to attack Gibraltar, then, yes, they are a German ally just like Hungary.

All the export certificates get revoked, and the blockade gets imposed, putting Franco in the position of either cancelling the transit rights, or getting the Germans to give him the food and fuel he needs.

Good luck with that.

 

[jmc247]

This would have a huge impact on German policy perhaps leading to an earlier DAK, no invasion of Greece and mid 1940 attack on Malta by Germany. I see the Axis going hard with a control the Mediterranean strategy for 1940-1941. Possibly the invasion of the Soviet Union gets put off to ‘42 depending on how things go.

 

[Ian_W]

This would have a huge impact on German policy perhaps leading to an earlier DAK, no invasion of Greece and mid 1940 attack on Malta by Germany. I see the Axis going hard with a control the Mediterranean strategy for 1940-1941. Possibly the invasion of the Soviet Union gets put off to ‘42 depending on how things go.

A mid-1940 attack on Malta with what ? The paratroops who got mauled in Holland ? The amphibious landing forces they don't have ?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Beyond the loss of food, fuel, fertilizer imports... The SOE starts instigating and aiding the leftists. I don't think it would be long before Basque, Communists, & other Republican holdouts are actively engaged in sabotage, assassinations, public bombing. In a couple years Spain will return to civil war and the Axis regiments will resemble Napoleons during a earlier misguided effort to bend Spain to a occupiers will.

 

[Orcbuster]

Yeah another civil war seems likely.

 

[Hammerbolt]

In case of Germany grabing the Iberian Peninsula, the portuguese government had planned to flee to the Açores. And the allies would get basing rights in the Açores in late 1940/early 1941, instead of August 1943, making a major turn in the sub war in the Atlantic.

 

[trurle]

This "First Embargo" held until the latter half of 1941, when Germany invaded Russia and Franco announced that Spanish "volunteers" were to fight alongside German forces. A second phase of sanctions, which the researchers called "the Squeeze," included a one-third reduction in Spain's allotment of oil, and American demands that its inspectors be allowed on Spanish soil to monitor the importation and consumption of oil. The Americans also wanted Spain to recall its troops from the Russian front. The British were less enthusiastic about these demands, worried that they might interfere with Britain's crucial imports of iron ore and potash from Spain. For its part, Spain swallowed the humiliating conditions imposed on it, but delayed withdrawing its troops from the east until October 1943 - and even then did not recall all of them.
https://www.nber.org/digest/oct06/w12228.html

Then Spain starves.

Without the RN allowing food or fuel into Spain, it cannot feed itself.

As far as the effect on the war effort, Germany needs to find another ten divisons or so to garrison Spain, and about a quarter of a million tons of grain a year.

The ten divisions aren't hard.

Torch is probably a landing in Spain.

An interesting possibility: Spain may be close to starving IOTL exactly because it was not occupied. Too much fertilizer materials was directed to either explosive production to deter aggression (nitrogen) or for cash-raising exports (potassium - although potassium was in short supply even without exports). You can actually expect food situation in Spain to improve after partial Axis occupation and demilitarization, at least until 1943 when the Germans will seriously start switching economics to the war footing.
http://www.helsinki.fi/iehc2006/papers2/Clar.pdf
(see page 14)

 

[misterwibble]

Yeah another civil war seems likely.

I think the word you want is 'inevitable'.

 

[Lusitania]

One of the principal players in deterring Franco from joining the Axis was Salazar from Portugal. In 1944 Winston Churchill wrote to Portuguese government thanking them for their effort in keeping the Spanish neutral.

 

[DaleCoz]

The only way Germany could have gotten Spain to voluntarily join the war would have been if they had offered Franco incentives right after the fall of France. In the immediate aftermath of the German victory, Franco might have been willing to jump in. Had he been a little less prudent, or if some Spanish general other than Franco had been in charge (the original leader of the Nationalists died in an early plane crash) Spain might have even jumped into the war looking for stray loot at the same time Italy did, with the leadership figuring the war was essentially over.

By the time the Germans historically wanted Spain to join the war, it was clear that Britain was willing and able to fight on and also that Fascist Italy was a military joke (proven in the Greek campaign). The Germans also had their sights set on the Soviets, which would make any Spanish/Mediterranean campaign problematic. In late 1940/early 1941, the Germans might be able to take Gibraltar and close the western Med to Allied surface ships, but then, as several comments have noted, they have a lot more coastline to defend on the Atlantic. That would to some extent be counterbalanced by having less of a commitment in the Med itself because the Brits would have more trouble accessing the western Med.

The most likely Spain enters the war scenario would be in mid-to-late June 1940, with the Brits and French in the last stages of the Battle for France, with Spain grabbing for Gibraltar and probably quickly asking for German help when they couldn't take the Rock on their own. The Germans would be trying to clean up in France and get ready for the Battle of Britain. They would have to improvise some kind of expedition to Spain, while also improvising the Battle of Britain. The Germans could probably do a Spanish expedition and take the Rock, though it might delay the Battle of Britain. Then what?

Upside for Germany: (1) Another British defeat to hurt British morale. (2) British shipping needs grow because anything that goes to Egypt or Malta pretty much has to go around the Horn of Africa. Historically, in the early stages of the war, the Brits were able to get a few high-priority convoys through to Egypt from Gibraltar and the bulk of Malta resupply convoys started in Gibraltar. (3) Malta probably gets starved out due to (2). (4) Spain and especially Portugal did have some raw materials the Germans needed, including Tungsten, which they would get more of and on more favorable terms than they did historically if they were occupying much of the Iberian peninsula. (5) They would have quite a few more poorly equipped divisions on their side--probably better fighters than the bulk of the Italians. (6) The Brits would face additional financial strain in the second half of 1940, before it was politically possible for Roosevelt to push Lend-Lease without it becoming an issue in the 1940 presidential campaign. (7) The Italian surface fleet could theoretically exit the Med and go after Atlantic convoys. I emphasize the "theoretically" part of that. The possibility would probably force the Brits to tie down battleships to counter it, in the same way the German battleships forced the Brits to keep a superior number of battleships in the Home Fleet when they were desperately needed elsewhere.

Downsides: (1) Spain would have needed a cr*pload of raw materials to replace imports, mostly stuff Germany and Italy were short of--oil, food and a large variety of other raw materials. Either Spain suffered near starvation or the Germans would have to supply that stuff, which would come out of an already limited stock. It would also tie up scarce German transport resources--railroad cars that wouldn't be available internally or to get stuff to the Eastern Front. (2) A longer Atlantic coast to defend if and when the US entered the war. (2) Vulnerable Spanish colonies like the Canary Islands and Spanish Sahara would be ideal Allied bases for anti-U-boat warfare and defending them would suck down scarce German resources like shipping and transport planes, if it was even possible. (3) Spain historically helped Germany smuggle small but vital amounts of raw materials from South America. That smuggling would get much harder.

Caveats: There is no guarantee that the rest of World War II would follow the same course if Spain was in the war. Would Hitler attack the Soviet Union with a still vulnerable southern flank. Probably, but not certainly. Would he declare war on the US? Again, probable but not certain. With Britain tied down with yet another enemy, and having lost Gibraltar, would Japan wait until late 1941 to attack in the Far East? If the Japanese went after Malaysia/Singapore and the Dutch East Indies in late 1940 instead of late 1941, Britain would be in a lot of trouble. That's the one point where the Axis would come closest to having a chance to win World War II, though I think the Allies would still probably in.