WI : Francis II of France lives longer

[Yorel]

Hi, everyone.

My name is Yorel and I'm new to the board. I didn't really knew where to post to present myself so I decided to do it within this thread.

First, I'd like to excuse myself for my english mistakes but I'm French and thus english is not my mother tongue.

I've known AH.com for a long time, but until now I was only a ghost reading timelines and threads that interested me. I took me a long time to finally register on this forum because I'm shy. What finally decided me are the fact that I enjoyed reading the timelines and the debates around them as well as the fact that there were some ideas I would have liked to see and that were never posted or presented.

My forte is Napoleonic History but I'm also very interested in French history in general as well as Roman and European history.

Well, now that I've done my introduction, let's talk about the thread.

Francis II of France, son of Henri II of France and Catherine de Medici, ruled from July 1559 to December 1560. He was only 16 years old when he died and couldn't really achieved anything during his 17 month-long reign. He ruled at the beginning of the Religious Wars and Protestants even once tried to seize him but they failed. He didn't really left a mark on History besides the fact that he is one of the three last king of the Valois Dynasty who ruled France and that he has the shortest reign of all the kings of that dynasty.

He was married to Mary Stuart, Queen of the Scots, but they had no children. This made me wonder... What would have happened if Francis II had lived longer?

If he had lived long enough to have a child with Mary, this child (I'll cal him Henri/Henry) would have inherited both of the thrones of France and Scotland.
It gets even more interesting if Elisabeth I of England still dies childless. As Mary Stuart was the next in line to the throne of England, her son would inherit her claims and thus the throne (that's how James I/VI got the english throne in OTL).

Francis II and Mary's son would therefore become King of France, England and Scotland as Henri/Henry III, IX and I.
This would make him one of the most powerful monarchs of Europe as he would have the ressource of two of the most powerful nations of Europe at that time : France and England. Besides Spain, I don't know really see which nation would stand a chance against the triple kingdom of France-England-Scotland.

However, the problem with that triple monarchy would be its stability. There were enormous religious turmoil in France in the last years of the Valois Dynasty between Protestants and Catholics. Also, by the time of Elisabeth I's death, England was staunchly Protestant while France and Scotland were Catholic. The religious war could thus happen on a larger scale, which would led Henri/Henry III, IX & I to face a huge civil war between Catholics and Protestants. It could en up in a bloody mess and the triple kingdom might collapse because of it.

Another problem with this scenario is its plausibility : I doubt Elisabeth I is going to accept the idea of being succeeded by a French King, furthermore if this King is a Catholic. She could very well try to find a way to avoid this scenario, which might lead her to seek a good husband and have children.

Furthermore, Mary Stuart had pissed off the scottish nobility, which is the reason why she lost her kingdom to her son in OTL. I don't know if having the French King for husband would change anything, even if France and Scotland were allies at that time.

Any thoughts?

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Francis II was very sickly. It's actually a surprise he lived as long as he did. Henri II and Marie de Medici had a lot of problems conceiving children, actually, and she resorted to a variety of measures to get pregnant, which probably was the main reason he had all the health problems he did.

There is another important thing with his marriage with Mary. Despite living to be sixteen, he hadn't even hit puberty at the time of his death, and although the Guises had thrust them together in order to sire an heir, there wasn't any doubt that when Mary returned to Scotland following the death of her husband, she was still a virgin in the technical sense.

So - assuming Francis II does live longer and manages to have children with Mary, I doubt the child would even come to inherit Scotland. By this period the Auld Alliance was unpopular to the Scots, who were already inching towards a religious reformation: Mary's mother who served as her Regent was dealing with with a variety of rebellions and Elizabeth I herself had sent troops north early in her reign, in hopes to aid the Protestant rebels. If anything, once Marie of Guise dies, the Scottish kingdom will have a myriad of problems: the Protestant nobles will probably try to raise up the Earl of Arran to the throne, with English support. The Catholics will rally around Mary, but if France is facing the same religious problems as OTL it seems unlikely that would succeed in restoring order over Scotland, meaning it goes independent under the Earls of Arran. Elizabeth would either will her inheritance to the heirs of Arran, has the guts to marry Dudley, or one of the potential English heirs through Henry VIII's other sister.

 

[RGB]

Welcome to the board.

I'm not an expert on Western Europe, but it seems to me like setting up a stage for concurrent Religion Wars all over the three countries. Would there be more coordination between factions on the Catholic and Protestant sides than OTL?

 

[SeptimusMagistos]

Hm. I do not think this would end with a peaceful inheritance.
Instead, the conflicts involved in the conflicting claims to Scotland and, more importantly, England, would probably escalate, with a possibility of leading to all-out war.

 

[mcdnab]

One of the principal reasons that Spain and Philip II supported Elizabeth I in the early years of heir reign was that despite her protestant heritage and her dubious legitimacy in the eyes of Catholic Europe he wanted to prevent the French from having a claim on ENgland.

Mary Stuart under the auspices of her father in law Henri II had already assumed the English arms and titles. In fact the french peace commissioners hammering out peace between England and France refused to hand back Calais because they stated they didn't know whether it should be given to Elizabeth or the Dauphine

However with a surviving Frances II it is increasingly likely that the pressure on Elizabeth to marry is going to increase considerably (and it was already fairly strong). In 1558 and 9 - Elizabeth's council were incredibly worried about the French claim and urged her to support the Scots Lords of the Congregation who were fighting the Scots Regent Mary's mother Marie of Guise. She did in OTL but it was fairly half hearted (elizabeth always had an issue with supporting other monarch's rebellious subjects).

Elizabeth's heir under her father's will was not Mary Stuart but Lady Catherine Grey who seems in the early 1560's to have been the majority of the councils preferred choice (she was protestant and young) until her hasty and foolish marriage without Elizabeth's consent. Another alternate for Elizabeth was her first cousin Mary's aunt the Lady Margaret Countess of Lennox and her sons Henry Lord Darnley and Charles Stuart - however Elizabeth disliked her (she'd been a favourite of Mary Tudor and was catholic).

Frances living longer means two things - an increasingly anti-french protestant majority in Scotland which might lead to open rebellion and even the deposition of Mary Stuart with possible English support. In France it probably means an even bloodier war of religion as the arch Catholic Guise family dominated Frances II's short reign and controlled both the young King and Queen. You lose the more pragmatic approach of the Queen Mother Catherine de Medici as shown when she took more effective control with the death of Frances ii and the accession of Charles IX.

 

[Yorel]

Francis II was very sickly. It's actually a surprise he lived as long as he did. Henri II and Marie de Medici had a lot of problems conceiving children, actually, and she resorted to a variety of measures to get pregnant, which probably was the main reason he had all the health problems he did.

That could be solved by having a POD that would make Francis II being born as a strong and healthy boy instead of being a sickly one. And if he isn't as sicky as he is in OTL, he may very well live longer.

There is another important thing with his marriage with Mary. Despite living to be sixteen, he hadn't even hit puberty at the time of his death, and although the Guises had thrust them together in order to sire an heir, there wasn't any doubt that when Mary returned to Scotland following the death of her husband, she was still a virgin in the technical sense.

As you mentionned, Francis II hadn't hit puberty when he died. This is probably the main reason he wasn't able to father a child. Another thing to take into acount is the fact that Francis II was only sixteen when he died. If I'm not wrong, it wasn't very common for boys to father a child around that age at the time. Thus, if he reaches puberty and lives a couple of years longer, he and Mary could have a child together.

And if he isn't born sickly as I mentionned earlier, this also increase his chances of having a child with Mary.

Welcome to the board.

I'm not an expert on Western Europe, but it seems to me like setting up a stage for concurrent Religion Wars all over the three countries. Would there be more coordination between factions on the Catholic and Protestant sides than OTL?

Thanks for the welcome.

I don't know if there would be more coordination between the Catholic and the Protestants.

The English and Scottish Protestants might have common goals and work together but I don't think they would have the same with the French. Not to mention that they are not the same kind of protestants (but I don't really know if that can be taken into account).
Same goes for the Catholic : French and Scots will probably fight together because of Francis II and Mary's marriage, especially if the Guise are still in high favor at the French court. However, I'm not sure that the English since they don't have any special interest on having a French monarch on the throne.

On the other hand, the Catholics might band together because they have a strong candidate for the three thrones and a heavy influence on him while Protestants could ally themselves because of this.

Either way, the situation would turn in a huge Religious Civil War. And it probably would be a very bloody one, especially considering that the neighboring nation might take part in it because of their own interests in supporting one side or the other. Spain and the Habsbourg are most likely to take part in the war because they want back their Burgundian inheritance as an example, not to mention that the Guise did ask for Spain's help in OTL.

One of the principal reasons that Spain and Philip II supported Elizabeth I in the early years of heir reign was that despite her protestant heritage and her dubious legitimacy in the eyes of Catholic Europe he wanted to prevent the French from having a claim on ENgland.

Didn't know Philip II of Spain had supported Elizabeth I in her first years...
On the other hand, it seems logical since there was bad blood between Francis I of France and Philip's father, Charles V.

Mary Stuart under the auspices of her father in law Henri II had already assumed the English arms and titles. In fact the french peace commissioners hammering out peace between England and France refused to hand back Calais because they stated they didn't know whether it should be given to Elizabeth or the Dauphine

However with a surviving Frances II it is increasingly likely that the pressure on Elizabeth to marry is going to increase considerably (and it was already fairly strong). In 1558 and 9 - Elizabeth's council were incredibly worried about the French claim and urged her to support the Scots Lords of the Congregation who were fighting the Scots Regent Mary's mother Marie of Guise. She did in OTL but it was fairly half hearted (elizabeth always had an issue with supporting other monarch's rebellious subjects).

Elizabeth's heir under her father's will was not Mary Stuart but Lady Catherine Grey who seems in the early 1560's to have been the majority of the councils preferred choice (she was protestant and young) until her hasty and foolish marriage without Elizabeth's consent. Another alternate for Elizabeth was her first cousin Mary's aunt the Lady Margaret Countess of Lennox and her sons Henry Lord Darnley and Charles Stuart - however Elizabeth disliked her (she'd been a favourite of Mary Tudor and was catholic).

I think the possibility for Elizabeth to marry are very important in this scenario, especially if Mary Stuart is married to the powerful King of France and has a child. Who were the likely candidates for her? I remember reading somewhere about the King of Denmark, but are there any others?

However, If Elizabeth dies childless, even if she names Catherine Grey or someone else as her successor, it seems to me that Mary had her eyes on the english throne : this is the main reason why Elizabeth had locked her up and finally had to execute her in OTL. So, even if Elizabeth has a successor wich is accepted by the english parliament, I don't think Mary would give up on the idea of being Queen of England.
Mary will also probably not tolerate the idea of losing the scottish throne : she'll try to reclaim it, even if she has to wait the end of the religious strife in France. She could even try to kill two birds with one stone : getting back the scottish crown and claiming the english throne.

Frances living longer means two things - an increasingly anti-french protestant majority in Scotland which might lead to open rebellion and even the deposition of Mary Stuart with possible English support. In France it probably means an even bloodier war of religion as the arch Catholic Guise family dominated Frances II's short reign and controlled both the young King and Queen. You lose the more pragmatic approach of the Queen Mother Catherine de Medici as shown when she took more effective control with the death of Frances ii and the accession of Charles IX.

I agree with you on everything, except one : I doubt Catherine de Medici is going to just sit there and do nothing while the Guise controll the decisions of her son and stepdaughter. If I'm not wrong, she was a pretty intelligent woman and knew how to rule a kingdom even though she failed to prevent the religious wars. It seems unlikely to me to let her son be manipulated, not to mention that the Guise were wishing for the French throne...

 

[Yorel]

No more thoughts on this subject?

 

[Gonzaga]

Just a possibility: if butterflies do not change the fate of Poland and Henry Valois is still elected king there, as he has less chances to inherit France he might stay there instead of fleeing to home. Of course, how successful would he be is a doubt, but the possibility exists.