WI: Francis II of France lives longer, has issue with Mary, Queen of Scots.

If she does not return to Scotland she's going to lose that crown which she does NOT want. She will also NOT be sole regent of France as you can bet her mother-in-law, Caterina de Medici, will do her best to claw her way into power...
Pity who Catherine here is an “Italian merchantess” without ANY RIGHT OR CLAIM to the regency for her grandson. Her only power was the (limited) influence who she had on her late son. In OTL Catherine got lucky with Henry II and Francis II’s premature death who left her in charge as regent for the still underage Charles IX but here she. will be powerless as nobody would give her any power in the regency for her grandson.
Mary will be sole regent as Catherine was in OTL
 
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Pity who Catherine here is an “Italian merchantess” without ANY RIGHT OR CLAIM to the regency for her grandson. Her only power was the (limited) influence who she had on her late son. In OTL Catherine got lucky with Henry II and Francis II’s premature death who left her in charge as regent for the still underage Charles IX but here she. will be powerless as nobody would give her any power in the regency for her grandson.
Mary will be sole regent as Catherine was in OTL
OK, Mary is sole regent, but she's still suo jure queen of Scotland which she WILL need to tend to...
 
OK, Mary is sole regent, but she's still suo jure queen of Scotland which she WILL need to tend to...
NO, She DO NOT NEED to do personally anything about Scotland. She has Regents and the French army for keeping control of Scotland and both her elder uncles were good military men so I guess who the Duke will stay in France and help her while the Cardinal will replace their late sister as Regent in Scotland
 
Anne is fine as name for a daughter of Francis and Mary (maybe Catherine, Antoinette or Elisabeth would be more appropriated but Anna d’Este, Duchess of Guisa was Francis’ second cousin and Mary’s aunt-by-marriage)
True but you would think they could use Claude...
Pretty unlikely... Anne is the best compromise name as would honor both branches of the family (and I can not see Mary being happy to name her daughter Catherine)
I had not thought to Anna d'Este (who was Francis' first cousin once removed, not his second cousin) but she was only a pretty vague relative. Francis and Mary naming their daughter after her seems a little farfetched. Except of course if she is chosen as godmother which is definitely possible.
Claude would honor both sides two as it is the name of both Francis' paternal grandmother and Mary's maternal grandfather.
As for Catherine, that's still a possibility as Francis is likely to be the one to decide.

Pity who Catherine here is an “Italian merchantess” without ANY RIGHT OR CLAIM to the regency for her grandson. Her only power was the (limited) influence who she had on her late son. In OTL Catherine got lucky with Henry II and Francis II’s premature death who left her in charge as regent for the still underage Charles IX but here she. will be powerless as nobody would give her any power in the regency for her grandson.
Mary will be sole regent as Catherine was in OTL
First of all, Catherine was NOT regent for Charles IX in OTL. She compated for the position against Antoine de Bourbon. The Parliament of Paris choose Catherine but REFUSED her the title of regent and instead gave her the innovative title of "gouvernante".
And saying "Catherine got lucky with Henry II and Francis II’s premature death" makes no sense, even without taking into account the pain she suffered from losing her husband and her son. These deaths meant Catherine had to do the job herself in order to protect the children she still had and had to do what she could to rule the country with very weak authority, many people despising her ( the “Italian merchantess” stuff was quite an issue).
Catherine's position was much more comfortable before Francis' death than after. Before, she was the listened unofficial advisor of the undisputable king. After, she was the despised and soon hated "gouvernante" (not even regent) in precarious situation. It is not fortuity that she put Charles in charge as soon as she could, even moving forward one year the time of his majority.

In the scenario that Francis dies young having an underage son by Mary, who will be regent of France is an open question. I know you believe the mother of an underage king of France is automatically regent but it is not true.
In OTL, despite being Charles IX's mother, Catherine needed to be appointed by the Parliament of Paris against Antoine. And she was not even made formally regent.
In the case of Mary, everyone would know she would end up as her uncles' puppet. And, the Guises, despite being popular in lower classes, were hated in nobility. They were seen as ambitious foreigners (Lorraine was not part of France at this time) having usurped positions that should go to French families like the Bourbons and the Montmorency. Obviously, all opponents to the Guises would dislike the idea of Mary becoming regent.
Of course, Mary has her chances but so does Catherine and so does Antoine.

Except Scotland was also rapidly becoming uncontrollably "heretic" in Mary's eyes and also began to rule in a way that would NOT fit Mary's interests (pro-France, Roman Catholic)...
This is the point. Mary would not let Scottish Protestant rebels do what they want.

The other option is she sends in foreign troops, which likely winds up driving the opposing Scottish forces into an alliance with the English and could mean Elizabeth I of England is forced to support Hamilton or one of Mary’s other Protestant rivals.
I think this is by far the most likely scenario.

NO, She DO NOT NEED to do personally anything about Scotland. She has Regents and the French army for keeping control of Scotland
If they succeed.

both her elder uncles were good military men
The cardinal of Lorraine was good military man? Are you sure you are not confusing with the third uncle, the duke of Aumale?
 
In the case of Mary, everyone would know she would end up as her uncles' puppet. And, the Guises, despite being popular in lower classes, were hated in nobility. They were seen as ambitious foreigners (Lorraine was not part of France at this time) having usurped positions that should go to French families like the Bourbons and the Montmorency. Obviously, all opponents to the Guises would dislike the idea of Mary becoming regent.
Of course, Mary has her chances but so does Catherine and so does Antoine.
Do you think the Guise-hating nobles will want Mary to go back to Scotland Or just not serve as regent, and if she stays around in France not making waves they have other things to worry about?
 
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Do you think the Guise-hating nobles will want Mary to go back to Scotland Or just not as regent, and if she stays around in France not making waves they have other things to worry about?
I guess they would like to keep Mary away in order to prevent the underage king to have ties with the Guises. But they can't force Mary to go back to Scotland nor prevent her to see her son, even if she is not regent.
 
I guess they would like to keep Mary away in order to prevent the underage king to have ties with the Guises. But they can't force Mary to go back to Scotland nor prevent her to see her son, even if she is not regent.
Keeping Mary away from who - her son? Impossible. Can't tell the queen of two countries what to do. Also, Mary might not return to Scotland before her son's majority, but after he reaches adulthood she WILL need to take him to Scotland...
 
I had not thought to Anna d'Este (who was Francis' first cousin once removed, not his second cousin) but she was only a pretty vague relative. Francis and Mary naming their daughter after her seems a little farfetched. Except of course if she is chosen as godmother which is definitely possible.
Claude would honor both sides two as it is the name of both Francis' paternal grandmother and Mary's maternal grandfather.
As for Catherine, that's still a possibility as Francis is likely to be the one to decide.
Mary was close to her maternal relatives, specially the Duke of Guise and her grandmother meaning who Anne most likely was NOT a pretty vague relative
First of all, Catherine was NOT regent for Charles IX in OTL. She compated for the position against Antoine de Bourbon. The Parliament of Paris choose Catherine but REFUSED her the title of regent and instead gave her the innovative title of "gouvernante".
And saying "Catherine got lucky with Henry II and Francis II’s premature death" makes no sense, even without taking into account the pain she suffered from losing her husband and her son. These deaths meant Catherine had to do the job herself in order to protect the children she still had and had to do what she could to rule the country with very weak authority, many people despising her ( the “Italian merchantess” stuff was quite an issue).
Catherine's position was much more comfortable before Francis' death than after. Before, she was the listened unofficial advisor of the undisputable king. After, she was the despised and soon hated "gouvernante" (not even regent) in precarious situation. It is not fortuity that she put Charles in charge as soon as she could, even moving forward one year the time of his majority.
I was meaning who Catherine would NEVER held any power without that deaths (and Francis likely listed more Mary‘s uncles than her) …
In the scenario that Francis dies young having an underage son by Mary, who will be regent of France is an open question. I know you believe the mother of an underage king of France is automatically regent but it is not true.
In OTL, despite being Charles IX's mother, Catherine needed to be appointed by the Parliament of Paris against Antoine. And she was not even made formally regent.
In the case of Mary, everyone would know she would end up as her uncles' puppet. And, the Guises, despite being popular in lower classes, were hated in nobility. They were seen as ambitious foreigners (Lorraine was not part of France at this time) having usurped positions that should go to French families like the Bourbons and the Montmorency. Obviously, all opponents to the Guises would dislike the idea of Mary becoming regent.
Of course, Mary has her chances but so does Catherine and so does Antoine.
If the underage King is NOT her son Catherine will have ZERO chances. Mary will have a much easier path for securing the regency (and depending from when Francis died is
t sure if
This is the point. Mary would not let Scottish Protestant rebels do what they want.


I think this is by far the most likely scenario.


If they succeed.


The cardinal of Lorraine was good military man? Are you sure you are not confusing with the third uncle, the duke of Aumale?h
Maybe, the Cardinal was the politician, right?
 
Do you think the Guise-hating nobles will want Mary to go back to Scotland Or just not serve as regent, and if she stays around in France not making waves they have other things to worry about?
I guess they would like to keep Mary away in order to prevent the underage king to have ties with the Guises. But they can't force Mary to go back to Scotland nor prevent her to see her son, even if she is not regent.

They can NOT take away the regency from her as she has not Catherine‘s low background and Francis loved and trusted her… plus is NOT like that nobles suddenly had he control of the King, Dowager Queen and Parliaments...
 
Keeping Mary away from who - her son? Impossible. Can't tell the queen of two countries what to do. Also, Mary might not return to Scotland before her son's majority, but after he reaches adulthood she WILL need to take him to Scotland...
For what reason? Scotland can very well stay in the hands of regents indefinitely, unless Mary and Francis had two sons and decide to make the second as heir of Scotland
 
Sure that works but if they only have one son, well, he will be king of Scotland too...
The only thing I can think of that might require his presence is being crowned king, and I'm not sure of Scots custom/laws as far as if he'll be acknowledged once his mother has croaked anyway.

Otherwise - why can't it stay in the hands of regents? Why is it so important that he go to Scotland?
 
The only thing I can think of that might require his presence is being crowned king, and I'm not sure of Scots custom/laws as far as if he'll be acknowledged once his mother has croaked anyway.

Otherwise - why can't it stay in the hands of regents? Why is it so important that he go to Scotland?
It could I suppose stay in hands of regents, but once the regent isn't particularly capable the Scottish people will start to want the king/queen back. Plus as seen IOTL Mary had no control of Scotland which she won't want for her son.
 
It could I suppose stay in hands of regents, but once the regent isn't particularly capable the Scottish people will start to want the king/queen back. Plus as seen IOTL Mary had no control of Scotland which she won't want for her son.

And what they want seems like it would be a tertiary concern at best, even if they are desperate for a very foreign son of a very foreign queen.

Mary's son is a (presumably secure) King of France here, so his governing Scotland through regents or viceroys is very different than Mary's OTL position within Scotland (leaving aside how much of that may have had to do with her weaknesses as a queen) as far as not wanting her son to be weak and powerless.

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but my impression is that you think Mary had a strong attachment to Scotland and the Scots that is not going to be weakened by even more time away (at the time of Francis II's death) than OTL.
 
Keeping Mary away from who - her son? Impossible.
That's precisely what I said:
they can't force Mary to go back to Scotland nor prevent her to see her son, even if she is not regent.

Mary was close to her maternal relatives, specially the Duke of Guise and her grandmother meaning who Anne most likely was NOT a pretty vague relative
An aunt in law IS a pretty vague relative. Mary being close to her uncle does not change that.
Also, was Mary close to Anna? I have to admit I do not know that.

I was meaning who Catherine would NEVER held any power without that deaths (and Francis likely listed more Mary‘s uncles than her) …
She had power thanks to her influence over Francis. Once again, he took the Guises as ministers only because Catherine had advised him to do.

Maybe, the Cardinal was the politician, right?
Yes. And?

If the underage King is NOT her son Catherine will have ZERO chances. Mary will have a much easier path for securing the regency
They can NOT take away the regency from her as she has not Catherine‘s low background and Francis loved and trusted her… plus is NOT like that nobles suddenly had he control of the King, Dowager Queen and Parliaments...
All of that depends only on what the Parliament of Paris decides.

unless Mary and Francis had two sons and decide to make the second as heir of Scotland
It was not the plan. Francis and Mary were supposed to build a united kingdom of France, Scotland and England.
 
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That's precisely what I said:



An aunt in law IS a pretty vague relative. Mary being close to her uncle does not change that.
Also, was Mary close to Anna? I have to admit I do not know that.
We do not know, but that is not unlikely…
She had power thanks to her influence over Francis. Once again, he took the Guises as ministers only because Catherine had advised him to do.
Mary will likely replace her as main influence very soon…
Yes. And?
Likely I got confused between military and political sphere (as they were not really so separated at that time)…
All of that depends only on what the Parliament of Paris decides.
I doubt who the Parliament had all this power. Francis’ will and tradition will be in Mary‘s favour in any case (and if Catherine got the regency in OTL, Mary will surely get it)
It was not the plan. Francis and Mary were supposed to build a united kingdom of France, Scotland and England.
Yes, but things can always change
 
Mary will likely replace her as main influence very soon…
What makes you believe that?

I doubt who the Parliament had all this power. Francis’ will and tradition will be in Mary‘s favour in any case (and if Catherine got the regency in OTL, Mary will surely get it)
The Parliament of Paris was the one to decide. Tradition did not say anything about regency. As for Francis, I am not sure at all he would have prefered Mary over Catherine to be regent. Catherine surely was more skilled.
 
What makes you believe that?
Mary had a LOT of influence over Francis, considering who they were grown-up together, she was a little older and they were in love
The Parliament of Paris was the one to decide. Tradition did not say anything about regency. As for Francis, I am not sure at all he would have prefered Mary over Catherine to be regent. Catherine surely was more skilled.
Catherine had never covered any political role at that point and she would NOT be a candidate at all
 
Mary had a LOT of influence over Francis, considering who they were grown-up together, she was a little older and they were in love
Having grown up together and being in love does not mean he has to obey to her. And he never showed any sign of a will to disavow Catherine.

Catherine had never covered any political role at that point and she would NOT be a candidate at all
Catherine ruled France when her husband was at war, during the Italian War of 1551–1559.
Of course she would be candidate.
 
Having grown up together and being in love does not mean he has to obey to her. And he never showed any sign of a will to disavow Catherine.


Catherine ruled France when her husband was at war, during the Italian War of 1551–1559.
Of course she would be candidate.
Francis showed no sign to disavow Caterina nor did Mary ask him to do so. Caterina will be regent if she needs to be, working with Mary. BUT, the POD is that Francis lives longer thus removing any need for a regency...
 
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