WI France wins Battle of the Saintes and Captures Jamaica: 1782?

Anaxagoras

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Suppose that the Battle of the Saintes in the spring of 1782 is a French victory? The performance of the French fleet in the American Revolutionary War was significantly better than it had been during the Seven Years War or that it would be in the French Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars, so achieving a solid victory over the Royal Navy seems quite plausible.

After winning such a victory, it is quite likely that the French would have been able to capture Jamaica from the British, which was their original goal.

How would this have affected the peace negotiations that were about to begin? Would the French demand stiffer terms from the British, or would the British have tried to continue the war in order to avoid having to sign an unfavorable treaty?
 
I don't know if the French could keep Jamaica in the long run. With the power of hindsight, they'd be better off trading it for something else. Quebec maybe? I don't know if the British would go for that.
 
I don't know if the French could keep Jamaica in the long run. With the power of hindsight, they'd be better off trading it for something else. Quebec maybe? I don't know if the British would go for that.

No, they would want jamaca a million times more then what was seen as a cold, miserable outpost in canada. At one point a believe the sugar plantations on jamaca made more then the WHOLE 13 colonies!
 
No, they would want jamaca a million times more then what was seen as a cold, miserable outpost in canada. At one point a believe the sugar plantations on jamaca made more then the WHOLE 13 colonies!

Wanting it, and being able to hold on to it are two entirely different things. I said that it was questionable that they could hold the island for long. How long could France keep the Royal Navy at bay?

If you have something your enemy really wants, but doubt you could hold it, you would be wise to trade for something you can keep at the peace talks.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I'm not sure if the French would want Quebec back anyway. They would not want a border with the United States, which might lead to trouble later on. And allowing the British to keep Quebec would help keep the Americans friendly to France as a counterbalance.
 
Probably just the return of some of the smaller Windward islands lost permanently during the course of the ARW.

Jamaica is a good piece of leverage if they continue to hold it during the peace talks. It would be more valuable long term, like St. Domingue. But Grenada, St. Vincent or definitive control of St. Lucia all or any part there of... could be returned to the French in exchange for Jamaica. Jamaica being more valuable than all three. It would be a good trade and its not like the French have not had a presence and hold on all three at one time or another previous to this.
 

Anaxagoras

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I do not think they can keep it in the long run. During the French Revolution Wars, it be most likely Britain would take it back.

The French Revolutionary Wars didn't break out IOTL until 1792, a decade after the events we're discussing here. Plenty of time for butterflies to muck up the works.
 
Wanting it, and being able to hold on to it are two entirely different things. I said that it was questionable that they could hold the island for long. How long could France keep the Royal Navy at bay?

Long enough to trap Cornwallis at Yorktown, and long enough to let the Spanish seize Menorca back from the Brits.

And long enough to take Jamaica, plus a few other islands, no?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Long enough to trap Cornwallis at Yorktown, and long enough to let the Spanish seize Menorca back from the Brits.

And long enough to take Jamaica, plus a few other islands, no?

IOTL, even with the victory at the Battle of the Saintes, the British had decided to cut their losses and get out of the war as quickly as possible. If the French had beaten the main British fleet in the Caribbean, would they be more or less likely to speed up negotiations to end the war as soon as possible?
 
The French Revolutionary Wars didn't break out IOTL until 1792, a decade after the events we're discussing here. Plenty of time for butterflies to muck up the works.

If Louis XVI gets involved in the Revolution, then that's going to drain France's coffers and set himself up for a severance package in the French Revolution.
 
The British HAD to keep or get back both Quebec and Jamaica. It's just a question of what they would give up to secure Jamaica. But Quebec was absolutely non-negotiable. Thousands of American Loyalists had fled there, and it would have seemed as if London was abandoning them yet again. Rockingham and Shelburne's envoys made it clear during peace talks that their government would fall if they came back to Parliament with a proposal to give up any significant part of Canada. They needed something to hang their hats on, and Canada was it.

With Jamaica in the picture, I think a lot of British possessions might come into discussion, but little beyond a few territories would come into play. France was seriously running out of money too. I wonder how Spain and Holland would react to Jamaica being taken by the French.
 
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