WI France went all out in the Saar Offensive


This requires that the Germans disregard their doctrine, training and experience and play the game exactly as the French wish; it isn’t going to happen.

And yet, that's exactly what they were planning to do. The original German plan called for exactly the sort of frontal attack the French and British were expected and prepared for, and the attack was scheduled to commence in January of 1940. Adverse weather and the crash of a Messerschmitt Bf 108 in Belgium which had the German war plan on board caused it to be delayed, and then cancelled, and in February the radically different plan to attack through the Ardennes was approved by Hitler.

It's disputed by some whether the attack was going to go ahead, but it was definitely scheduled to happen on the 14th when the news of the crashed plane was received on the 10th, and Hitler referred specifically to what the Allies had learned from the plan when approving the new one to Jodl in February.

It's certainly hard to say that it's impossible for the Germans to play the game exactly as the French wish when they were less than a week from doing exactly that when a fluke accident stopped them.
 

Cook

Banned
And yet, that's exactly what they were planning to do. The original German plan called for exactly the sort of frontal attack the French and British were expected and prepared for, and the attack was scheduled to commence in January of 1940...
Don’t go confusing Strategy and tactics. Had they attacked with their 1939 plan their tactics would have still been to bypass strong resistance, encircle the enemy and attack vulnerable flanks just as they had in Poland.
 
Don’t go confusing Strategy and tactics. Had they attacked with their 1939 plan their tactics would have still been to bypass strong resistance, encircle the enemy and attack vulnerable flanks just as they had in Poland.

Sure, except they'd be running headfirst into prepared defenses while doing it. At minimum that drags out the battle for France much longer. And Germany cannot survive much better than "minimum". They were outnumbered, outgunned and outproduced by Britain + France, and their advantage of superior tactics lessens every day, as can be seen by relative kill totals as the battle for France went on.

The Luftwaffe lost 1/3 of its strength in the OTL battle of France, and it only lasted six weeks. The Germans also lost 1/3 of the tanks they comitted to the battle. The entire German army in 1940 has barely 1/3 as many motorised vehicles as France, and 50% of their total divisions are neither equipped nor trained to modern standards (many of them weren't even equipped to 1914 standards).

What happens when logistical shortages start really hitting the Germans, as they most certainly will? Much of the reason Dunkirk happened as it did was because the Germans tanks were at the end of their logistical tether and had to halt, not just because Goering wanted to show off.

A delay of two weeks is a 33% extension of the entire length of a battle that as it was cost the Germans 1/3 of their front line air force and 1/3 of their tanks and had their remaining armoured divisions at the very end of their tether, against an opponent that outnumbered and outproduced them. Also add in to the fact that the original plan would have necessarily resulted in greater German casualties as they were doing exactly what the French and British had expected and planned them to do, and the chance of a German victory becomes remote, for all of their tactical advantages. The longer the Battle of France lasts, the less chance the Germans have.
 

Cook

Banned
Sure, except they'd be running headfirst into prepared defenses while doing it.
No, again, that would be playing it as the French wanted the game played.

We have a very good idea of what a Saar offensive in late September, early October would have been like. It would have resembled The Somme; extremely broad and slow, involving a very large artillery preparation followed by a slow infantry advance supported by tanks. We know this because that is the gist of what little offensive doctrine the French had in 1939. France really didn’t have an offensive doctrine left. It would have been slow and cautious and would have paused at the first sign off German resistance to build up forces before attempting an attack with overwhelming force. Any check would have halted it.

Before anyone rushes to point out that they advanced into Belgium the following year, that was not an offensive. It wasn’t even an advance to contact; it was an advance to a defensive stop line on the River Dyle, at which point the French were going to dig in an attempt to hold against the anticipated German attack.

This was written by then Lt. General Alan Brooke on November 11, 1939:

‘Seldom have I seen anything more slovenly and badly turned out. Men unshaven, horses ungroomed, clothes and saddlery that did not fit, vehicles dirty, and complete lack of pride in themselves and their units. What shook me most was the look on the men’s faces, disgruntled and insubordinate looks, and although ordered to give ‘eyes left’, hardly a man bothered to do so.’

That was written in his campaign dairy, it is not the product of hindsight. And Brooke was certainly not a francophobe; he’d been born in France, learnt French before English and had been with the French army at Verdun in 1916.

So the French would be attacking with a command and control network that was completely inadequate for the task, with an obsolete doctrine and with troops who in most cases had not been effectively trained and had no confidence in themselves or their commanders. And without air support; the French and British air forces had not perfected close air support. Indeed, the Bomber Barons insisted at the time that trying to bomb enemy troops instead of enemy industrial targets was detrimental to winning the war.

Against this the Germans would be fighting on ground of their choosing, on what is very good defensive terrain and with troops arriving who were not only extremely well trained, but had the massive confidence boost of having just known victory with the officers that were commanding them. They’d in short order stop the French advance, and with close air support from the Luftwaffe, counter-attack where the French were weak to destabilise the French line. Whether they drove the French all the way back to the Maginot Line or just forced the French onto the defensive would depend on how much resistance they encountered, but this would not result in the Battle of France starting early.

The Germans would attack as and when they saw fit and deemed themselves ready and the weather favourable.
 
Cook, I agree with you about the inadequacies of the French army - that comment in Brooke's diary has always made me wince and I often wonder what my Grandfather saw when he was in France from 1939-40.
Gamelin was pathetically unsuited to fight a modern war and I agree that his offensive would have been defeated eventually. However, such a defeat woiuld surely resulted in him being replaced with someone like Weygand. The latter was a pain but he did change French tactics to the point where if they'd had more luck and more men/equipment on the Somme they just might have stopped the Germans, at least for a while. So - if Weygand is in charge of the Allied forces in 1940, what would happen?
 
Cook, I agree with you about the inadequacies of the French army - that comment in Brooke's diary has always made me wince and I often wonder what my Grandfather saw when he was in France from 1939-40.
Gamelin was pathetically unsuited to fight a modern war and I agree that his offensive would have been defeated eventually. However, such a defeat woiuld surely resulted in him being replaced with someone like Weygand. The latter was a pain but he did change French tactics to the point where if they'd had more luck and more men/equipment on the Somme they just might have stopped the Germans, at least for a while. So - if Weygand is in charge of the Allied forces in 1940, what would happen?

This was always my question. WI Weygand is in charge in 1940, or even in 1936?
 
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