So, if either by a series of errors on the German/Prussian side or a more competent French response, the French are able to win the battle. I'm not saying that they pull a reverse Sedan and annihilate their army, but how would such a victory affect the outcome of the war? What happens if France wins the war? What is the Austrian, Russian or British reaction to this?
WI: France victorious at Sedan
- Thread starter Hashoosh
- Start date
If France wins at Sedan, the conflict is likely to be more protracted, perhaps spreading to the low countries? Belgium fully mobilised its army at the time due to fears of being made a battlefield by either France or Prussia, so conflict in that direction could be interesting. The Austrians still had anti-Prussian feeling from the Seven Weeks War of 1866 so they might well look to exploit Prussian weakness in the aftermath of such a defeat.
Hope this helps
Hope this helps
Both France and Prussia were scared shitless of foreign intervention, and the situation of 1870 means that Belgium won't be attacked (because of the UK). As for Austria, they were still licking their wounds from 1866, and just had to compromise with the Augsleich with the Hungarians. If France looks like they start winning, I'd have to agree that Austria-Hungary would seriously consider an invasion of Prussia. That may trigger an Italian invasion of Austria if it goes poorly though...
I wonder how the South German states would react to this?
South Germans could turn on the Prussians depending on how badly the war was going; perhaps they withdraw their troops from the German army?
Certainly if Austria decided to start a new conflict with Prussia I'd imagine there would be deeply conflicted loyalties.
Certainly if Austria decided to start a new conflict with Prussia I'd imagine there would be deeply conflicted loyalties.
Well if France had won the war (or forced a stalemate) then you get the Empire surviving (though Nappy III most likely doesn't live much longer than he did OTL) with the very young Napoleon IV taking the throne. He'd probably be very influenced by his mother...
Anyways territoriality, probably not much changes. Without a speedy victory Bismarck will be wary of continuing the war longer than he has to for fear of foreign intervention by either Austria or Britain (the only two powers which could conceivably do so) either militarily or diplomatically. The best the French could do IMO was force a stalemate, and if that happens each side probably settles for status quo ante bellum, but Prussia demanding an indemnity. Depending on how negotiations go I could see this.
This of course prevents the German Empire from forming, and the Southern German states (led by Bavaria) remain out of Berlin's sphere of influence and hover more towards Vienna/Paris. Prussia is still the dominant German state since they can claim to have beaten France, but without the crippling victory of OTL it will be hard to have the same oomph behind them.
Expect to see a Franco-Austrian-alliance emerging I think.
Anyways territoriality, probably not much changes. Without a speedy victory Bismarck will be wary of continuing the war longer than he has to for fear of foreign intervention by either Austria or Britain (the only two powers which could conceivably do so) either militarily or diplomatically. The best the French could do IMO was force a stalemate, and if that happens each side probably settles for status quo ante bellum, but Prussia demanding an indemnity. Depending on how negotiations go I could see this.
This of course prevents the German Empire from forming, and the Southern German states (led by Bavaria) remain out of Berlin's sphere of influence and hover more towards Vienna/Paris. Prussia is still the dominant German state since they can claim to have beaten France, but without the crippling victory of OTL it will be hard to have the same oomph behind them.
Expect to see a Franco-Austrian-alliance emerging I think.
Define broken?
I mean, it's certainly possible to break the siege at some points and throw the Germans back, but you need a gigantic amount of success to translate that into a victory, rather than 'France doesn't lose quite as badly'.
I have to disagree with you on the no changes to territory. For one, Napoleon III needs to come away with something from this war, as he started it. He's deeply unpopular inside of Paris and using the war as pretext to curry favour in the city is definitely likely. But what of the Austrians? If Prussia is defeated, you don't think they'll challenge them to avenge their honour from Konnigratz and reclaim primacy in the German Confederation?
Well the question is, how does Napoleon force the issue? After a victory at Sedan both sides would be bloody, and though the Germans have lost the initiative (for now) the French have little ability to regain it considering the command issues the French forces faced. Unless he manages to entice Austria into the fray the best they can do is hold the line and not lose any territory. However, should France hold the line at Sedan and beat the Prussians, they might entice Austria and Denmark into the war, but I'm skeptical.
He could maybe fight the Germans on the indemnity, but each side would want something. It's just hard to see him totally reversing the tables, and he isn't going to be in a position to make demands of Prussia.
His best bet will be a white peace, followed by a post-war alliance with Austria which keeps the southern German states out of Prussian hands and ensures Prussia can't dominant central Europe. This would ironically push him into the French-conservative camp for the remainder of his reign, and he would come down sharply on the side of the Pope on the Roman Question methinks.
Even if the French check the Germans at Sedan, by that point the French are already losing which means no foreign intervention. And considering the staggering French incompetence of 1870-71 I would expect the French to find some other way to screw up.
Without a quick victory the South Germans bail, Bismarck is sacked and Berlin offers a meager compromise. Status quo ante but with Luxembourg allowed to pass to France. I agree an Franco-Austrian alliance emerges in the wake of this. Also agree Napoleon III is beholden to the Catholics/holds on to Lazio.
France is already losing when Sedan starts. Bazaine is trapped in Metz and the French armies have been repeatedly beaten on their own soil. At best they're just not losing as badly as they were IOTL. The main importance of a German repulse at Sedan (unless you have a way earlier POD I don't see the French managing any better than that) is that the Second French Empire lasts longer. However considering its track record in the OTL Franco-Prussian War I don't see the odds of German victory being seriously challenged by that.
TFSmith121
Banned
There's another possibility:
If the French manage a draw at Sedan, the Prussians face the reality of having to both hold there and besieging Metz, with the Austrians and - potentially - the Russians at their backs.
The Prussians and Russians had been allies of convenience at Alvensleben, but with the majority of German field forces in the west, they have a chance - along with the Austrians - of driving the Prussians back on their heels in Central Europe.
If the British decide it is time to knock the Prussians down as well - there's a reason they backed down in the Danish war (namely, no army worth the name) - but now they have the preferred British strategy to a continental power, having plenty of other Europeans willing to fight the targeted power.
Add some Danish revanchism, and hey, presto - Prussia is shoved back and the unification of Germany is delayed for another generation. Win/win for all concerned, except the Germans...
Best,
If the French manage a draw at Sedan, the Prussians face the reality of having to both hold there and besieging Metz, with the Austrians and - potentially - the Russians at their backs.
The Prussians and Russians had been allies of convenience at Alvensleben, but with the majority of German field forces in the west, they have a chance - along with the Austrians - of driving the Prussians back on their heels in Central Europe.
If the British decide it is time to knock the Prussians down as well - there's a reason they backed down in the Danish war (namely, no army worth the name) - but now they have the preferred British strategy to a continental power, having plenty of other Europeans willing to fight the targeted power.
Add some Danish revanchism, and hey, presto - Prussia is shoved back and the unification of Germany is delayed for another generation. Win/win for all concerned, except the Germans...
Best,
If the French manage a draw at Sedan, the Prussians face the reality of having to both hold there and besieging Metz, with the Austrians and - potentially - the Russians at their backs.
The Prussians and Russians had been allies of convenience at Alvensleben, but with the majority of German field forces in the west, they have a chance - along with the Austrians - of driving the Prussians back on their heels in Central Europe.
If the British decide it is time to knock the Prussians down as well - there's a reason they backed down in the Danish war (namely, no army worth the name) - but now they have the preferred British strategy to a continental power, having plenty of other Europeans willing to fight the targeted power.
Add some Danish revanchism, and hey, presto - Prussia is shoved back and the unification of Germany is delayed for another generation. Win/win for all concerned, except the Germans...
Best,
If Russia enters the war it's going to be on Prussia's side. Relations between Berlin and St. Petersburg since Bismarck supported the Russians during the Polish revolt in 1863 were very good. At the beginning of the war Russia was threatening to match any Austrian mobilization with one of its own.
Source: Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War, pg. 64
And there is no way the British will side with the Prussians. The Prussians were viewed as the underdog. Remember that the last time the British dealt with the Prussians in war, it was at Waterloo.
Gaining a draw at Sedan probably won't help the French for long. Their incompetence, both that of the Empire and Republic, was staggering. Troops joining a unit in Alsace first needed to report to the unit depot in Oran (pg. 68). I strongly suspect the French would find another way to screw up.
TFSmith121
Banned
Yes, but this is Europe at the height of power politics
Yes, but this is Europe at the height of power politics; wasn't it Pam who said "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
There is, after all, a reason the French and Russians allied in the Twentieth Century.
Best,
Yes, but this is Europe at the height of power politics; wasn't it Pam who said "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
There is, after all, a reason the French and Russians allied in the Twentieth Century.
Best,
Yes, but this is Europe at the height of power politics; wasn't it Pam who said "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
There is, after all, a reason the French and Russians allied in the Twentieth Century.
Best,
This POD isn't the 20th century though. We must look at the geopolitical considerations of 1870. Future alignments made under different conditions are irrelevant.
Russia's interests are inclining towards the Balkans, meaning that a strong Prussia is better from Russia's point of view than a strong Austria. Furthermore France had helped defend the Ottomans during the Crimean War; Russia used French defeat as an opening to tear up the restrictions on its Black Sea Fleet. Russia has absolutely no reason to turn against Prussia unless it feels like alienating the only European great power on good terms with it.
Also 1870 Prussia is not the same as 20th century Germany. It is not viewed as the mega-power of the continent who is continually aggressive and militaristic who must be contained. In 1870 the country closest to fitting that bill is France.
Also foreign intervention is not going to happen as long as Prussia is winning. Nobody wants to join the losing side. And even if the French repulse the Prussians at Sedan, the Prussians are still winning the war.
Power politics don't make you back the losing side and throw your best friend under the bus for no real reason.Yes, but this is Europe at the height of power politics; wasn't it Pam who said "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
There is, after all, a reason the French and Russians allied in the Twentieth Century.
Best,
The Russian Empire would need to be convinced that a united Germany would be bad for their own interests - but they had no reason to think so at that point in time.
The Franco-Prussian war was hilariously one-sided. Even if the German alliance suffers a defeat at Sedan, they are still winning everywhere else and France is still in an almost hopeless military situation. It's much more likely that Prussia rallies and redeploys more troops to engage the French a second time soon after than it is for Napoleon III to turn the war around and successfully throw the Germans out of France.
Itis impossible for the French to win at Sedan itself. They can do better during the summer campaign if Bazaine does no throw away probable French victries at Mars la Tour (where he could and should have desttroyed Alvensleben's corps) or at Gravellotte where he should have inflicted a serious defeat obn the Germans. He then mahaged to get himself beseged in Metz.
Wouldn't a victory at Sedan give time to organise the national defense?
Even a draw, in the French psyche, it is called the Disaster of Sedan. Even a less fatal blow, a small defeat where the whole army, and the Emperor, is not captured might influence a lot of things by making it more bloody on both sides. You might end up with a continuing Empire with Alsace gone or something.
Did Prussia have the manpower to do a long war?
Even a draw, in the French psyche, it is called the Disaster of Sedan. Even a less fatal blow, a small defeat where the whole army, and the Emperor, is not captured might influence a lot of things by making it more bloody on both sides. You might end up with a continuing Empire with Alsace gone or something.
Did Prussia have the manpower to do a long war?