Let's say that France is under control of the National Front, what happens under an FN administration?
That is an artifact of the "instant run-off" system where the main stream parties gang up on FN in the playoffs.What exactly does "control" by the FN mean?
in the 2017 election, the FN won eight seats out of 577; in 2012, they won two seats, in 2007 and 2002 *none*, in 1997 and 1993, one, etc.
Disagree. The best way to get a President Le Pen is to have Marine Le Pen face off against Fillion, as polling showed her doing better against Fillion compared to Melenchon or Macron.If it means a president from the FN, that is unlikely but not totally implausible--if, say, in 2017, Marine Le Pen had faced Jean-Luc Mélenchon rather than Emmanuel Macron in the runoff (though I think she'd still lose).
Let's say that France is under control of the National Front, what happens under an FN administration?
It wouldn't be an outright fascist regime, but a very oppresive democracy, putting emphasis on the "will of the people" and on majority rule.
Actually, I can see the Le Pen (whoever wins) starting by pushing Phillipot aside, as they don't truly like him and his ideas.
Disagree. The best way to get a President Le Pen is to have Marine Le Pen face off against Fillion, as polling showed her doing better against Fillion compared to Melenchon or Macron.
Even against Fillion she was still losing . There was no way for her to win .
I know this is a popular opinion but it's not actually borne out by the available facts, polls generally showed that Fillon was the weakest candidate against Le Pen and that Mélenchon would do alright. You could say that this was the result of Mélenchon v. Le Pen being an unlikely hypothesis and that opinion would change if the French public were actually faced with the choice but at that level of speculation we might as well be making stuff up.Even Hamon's and Mélenchon's gang would have voted for Fillon to prevent Le Pen. Le Pen had only a chance against Mélenchon, and even then she might have lost.
Disagree. The best way to get a President Le Pen is to have Marine Le Pen face off against Fillion, as polling showed her doing better against Fillion compared to Melenchon or Macron.
So you looked at one poll, and completely ignored every poll that had been released from February-April showing Fillion doing worse then Melenchon (which the vast majority of them did, by the way)?The most recent poll before the first round showed her trailing Mélenchon by only 54-46. (Odoxa 21 Apr 2017) The same poll showed her losing to Fillon by 57-43. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 I know that some other polls showed Fillon to be the (relatively) weakest opponent for Le Pen, but I was using the latest poll.
That is an artifact of the "instant run-off" system where the main stream parties gang up on FN in the playoffs.
In a FPTP system the FN could well end up with a majority or - easier done - as the largest party in parliament.
A proportional system also would give the FN many more seats, as there would be no sentiment of "wasting one's vote as they won't get in anyway".
So you looked at one poll, and completely ignored every poll that had been released from February-April showing Fillion doing worse then Melenchon (which the vast majority of them did, by the way)?
Thankee for correcting blooper.BTW, France has runoffs but not "instant runoff."
The EU is still seen in here as a possible tool for France to exert her influence over Europe, and to be able to project more world wide.What if she agreed to stay quiet if France left the euro.? The ideal of national sovereignty le belle france is key since the day of the sun king.
This is interesting. A contingency plan for a Le Pen victory drawn up by the French government was leaked after the 2017 election. It essentially was a plan to allow her to take office but not have any power.
The plan probably would have worked because of a feature of the French political system. France is essentially a parliamentary system disguised as a presidential system. While the head of state has greater powers than normal in parliamentary system, for example the President is not bound to take the advice of the Prime Minister, in the end it is the Prime Minister, dependent on a majority in the Assembly, who runs the government. Since the President is popularly elected, the President is usually head of the party that has the majority in the Assembly and can name and dismiss Prime Ministers at will. But the three occasions in the Fifth Republic where this wasn't the case revealed that a President without a legislative majority would be pretty powerless.
And there was no chance of the FN getting a legislative majority in 2017, even coming off of a victory in the presidential election, though they would have gotten more than the 13% of the vote they did get. The Prime Minister would probably been Fillon or someone like him, but it would not have been Le Pen's choice.