WI: France sides with Germany in 1940?

Hi all,

So I am reading Plan Z: The Nazi Bid for Naval Dominance by David Wragg.

In it, it discusses the possibility of the Germans seizing the French Fleet in 1940 - Had they pushed into South of France instead of settling for a cease-fire with France, and the possibility of a more agressive Italian push once they entered the war in 1940, that resulted in the capture of the French Fleet before it could be scuttled.

Now, as we all know the French Fleet was scuttled when Germany tried to take it by force in 1942, and I suspect that had the Germans or Italians come close to the bases in 1940 then the fleet would have either scuttled then or fled to Africa/UK etc.

All is not over however, because one more item is mentioned in the book. It says that there was serious discussion within the French government (Lead by the President I believe) about France siding with the European winner in the war at that time - the Germans.

My thought is therefore this: What if the French government decides to side with Germany in 1940, and joins the Axis cause instead of becomming a government in exile and continuing to fight against Germany?

Germany could obtain the majority of the French fleet, and would need to commit less troops to France. She would also have French military forces acting on it's side more than OTL.

If this therefore occured in 1940, what is likely to happen in respects to the course of events in WWII?

Now, before it starts, can we please all ignore the "But France would never do that" ideals, and assume that for whatever reason she does.

If you would like more intel on this discussion, let me know and I will post it later when I am back from work.

Discuss! :D
 
Well, in OTL after the British attack on the French fleet, the Vichy gov't. was rather pissed off, as were the French people or so I believe. Supposing the Government stays in place and the same thing happens....push France just a little harder, and they may well side completely as junior partners in the Axis.

Germany will probably do a LOT better with war production if French Industry is mobilized for the war effort, though they can expect heavy punishment via the bombing campaign. Might throw off or eliminate American landings in North Africa, tie up British troops in Africa. Italian East Africa might survive (at least a bit longer) with French allies there. The War in the Atlantic might go differently or be more of a struggle.

That's all for now
 
The Attack of Mers-el-Kebir, or something around that time, would be your major POD. This would be the point that Vichy France was farthest from the Allies, and most likely to join the Axis, however unlikely that would be. Of course there are political problems with joining the Axis, but for the sake of the OP, I will not mention them and let others do so.

The fact of the matter is that the French Fleet, in one word, is "disabled". Mers-el-Kebir did quite a number upon the French battle-line that would take months to repair, and many other French vessels were docked in British ports, notably in Great Britain and Egypt. These vessels were "detained" either until they joined the Free French, or they remained "detained". Therefore, it is likely that the French Fleet will simply not be able to do anything within its normal capacity from anywhere to six months to a year.

Of course, at this time you have the British moving on all the Vichy French colonies at once, including Indochina. Indochina is an interesting case, because when the Japanese occupied it in September of 1940, it was what lead to the embargo by the United States, Great Britain, and the Netherlands (in exile). With Indochina being Invaded/Liberated by the British/Free French, would that embargo have still been placed? Without it, that means all attention remains on Europe, and the United States will not join the war until much later, with less equipment.

There are many other variables to consider, but the fact of the matter is, if the Vichy French join sometime the Axis sometime during the period of July to early September, the Axis (and especially Japan) benefits; anytime after, it might benefit the Axis, but as soon as the United States enters, the war progresses as OTL.
 
I find it funny that whenever I post in a thread, I often kill it. :p
/Slaps Ariosto and threatens to kill him if he kills the thread! :rolleyes:

Anywho, back home now I am, I can tell you that it was Pierre Laval who was the main proponent of allying with the European winners (In this case Germany) so that she could retain her overseas colonies. He was apparantly supported by a fairly large number of senators and deputies within the government.

Also, I should point out, that if France had allied with Germany before Mers El Kebir occured, then the French Fleet may have already sortied, and could therefore engage the Royal Navy in the Med. without being stuck in port at the time, and therefore the engagement would not have been so one sided.
 
/Slaps Ariosto and threatens to kill him if he kills the thread! :rolleyes:

Anywho, back home now I am, I can tell you that it was Pierre Laval who was the main proponent of allying with the European winners (In this case Germany) so that she could retain her overseas colonies. He was apparantly supported by a fairly large number of senators and deputies within the government.

Also, I should point out, that if France had allied with Germany before Mers El Kebir occured, then the French Fleet may have already sortied, and could therefore engage the Royal Navy in the Med. without being stuck in port at the time, and therefore the engagement would not have been so one sided.

Yes, but there is no chance WHATSOEVER that would happen. At least with Mers-el-Kebir there would be a significant amount of Anti-British sentiment.
 
Some items to consider. One of the reasons that Germany was unable to capitalize on the various British attacks on Vichy was the her alliance with Italy and attempts to recruit Spain into an alliance. Both Italy & Spain wanted territory that would have to come from the French colonies and the Vichy government was definitely not going to give territory without a fight or at least serious concessions that Germany was unwilling to make.

Had Germany been less interested in bringing Franco in and making Benito happy (or throwing him a bone elsewhere) they might have been able to draw Vichy into an alliance.

While the French Navy would be a big help, access to French North Africa would help reduce the strain on supplying the Afrika Korps as convoys could be routed away from Malta and efforts to run supplies from Gibraltar to Malta would be under attack almost from the time they left the Rock.

As Syria/Lebanon was still under Vichy control, It would allow the Axis to both support the Iraq uprising and start a pincer movement on the Suez Canal.
 
Operation Catapult could have badly backfired, that's for sure. As a military operation it didn't hold its promises (it didn't eliminate Vichy's fleet as a potential actor in the Med), and it fanned the flames of the most vocal Collaborationnist groups. If Darlan or Laval had been more adventurous and exploited more skillfully the warm bodies of the 1,400 French sailors killed in this action, we could have ended with a strengthened Axis position.
 
Assuming a POD of Vichy France siding with Germany after Mers-el-Kebir, it is very difficult to see how the British could pick up French colonies. OTL they certainly tried and failed pretty much everywhere.

It took hard fighting (usually with token Free French assistance) against determined resistance. And the British were stretched too thin in 1940/1941 to devote the manpower to capture French colonies.

But IMO the main problem for the Allies would be the closing off of the Med. With French North Africa hostile (and supported by a few Axis torpedo-bomber or dive bomber units), no British vessel could safely run the gauntlet of Gibraltar-Malta.

Which effectively means Malta falls and the Axis have a safe supply route...Considering 8th Army almost lost to 3 rundown German divisions, 3 decently supplied divisions (and the Italian army) should have been able to kick the British out of Egypt.....
 
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Adler

Banned
After Mers El Kebir the chances of a French declaration of war against the British were the greatest. IIRC there was only one vote more in the French Vichy cabinet not to declare war on Britain. If they did so, the British had lost the Med. It would not be possible for them to go to Malta for the already said reasons. Malta would have surrendered very fast. And with the support secured the way to Egypt would be open for Rommel. Then Sues and the Middle East.
The British might then had captured French Indochina, but they, too, would not had the possibilities to do much more. French Africa was way too big and much forces needed there. They would had missed at other fronts, where they would be much more needed.
In that case a US/British invasion of North Africa would not had been really possible as they now would have to see a real opponent in the French army there. And without the British forces, the Italian and French navies would have been able to engage the British RN in the Atlantic, as then I think Gibraltar would have been captured, too.

Adler
 
I would not be so sure about Britain losing so easily in the Med. A Vichy declaration of war against Britain could very well lead to a potent civil war in France itself, since I very much doubt that the bulk of the French armed forces would gladly fight for Germany.
 
Yeah, more than Britain losing the "battle of the Med", it would be more like "Britain having to dedicate more troops, ships, money and effort" to maintain its position and then establish supremacy.

There would be near-miss situations, though : with a belligerent Vichy, think of the situation in Egypt, with Rommel moving into Egypt from Tunisia and Palestine and the Sinai threatened by the quite strong Vichy forces in Syria, for example.

Also, what if it had decided Turkey to either join the Axis or at least be very favorably neutral?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Operation Catapult could have badly backfired, that's for sure. As a military operation it didn't hold its promises (it didn't eliminate Vichy's fleet as a potential actor in the Med), and it fanned the flames of the most vocal Collaborationnist groups. If Darlan or Laval had been more adventurous and exploited more skillfully the warm bodies of the 1,400 French sailors killed in this action, we could have ended with a strengthened Axis position.

Darlan being more adventurous = the marine nationale goes allied in 41.
He hated the germans even more than the british and thoroughly despised Laval.

A Vichy dow could work, but Darlan did not merely fear retaliating, he gave strict orders, multiple times, against any sortie against the british: he didn't want it.
 
The only way the French fleet is going to be used in any way usefull by the Axis is if the French themselves crew it, which would be the case in this POD.
The Germans themselves don't have the crew necessary and the Italians lack the fuel for it.

However, there was no such thing as THE French fleet in 1940.
It was widely dispersed with large portions of it in or near Allied ports in '40 or in area's where they were at the mercy of the Allies (pretty much everywhere outside the Med/Northwest Africa), such as for example the battleships Lorraine, Courbet and Paris in Alexandria vs Plymouth and Portsmouth as Ariosto also mentioned.

Although probably the most important ships at that time were Dunkerque and Strasbourg at Mers-el-Kebir and Richelieu at Dakar (although the latter was not finished and not worked up).

After Mers El Kebir the chances of a French declaration of war against the British were the greatest. IIRC there was only one vote more in the French Vichy cabinet not to declare war on Britain. If they did so, the British had lost the Med.
Adler

France somehow joining the Germans = / = Britain losing the Med and Suez.

Losing Malta and the Central/Western Med is mostly irrelevant to the British as their convoys used the long way around Africa to supply Egypt and the Middle East (apart from a few direct convoys due to the persistance of one Winston Churchill).
 
To make this work better, we need to kill of Charles De Gaulle, so the more Pro-Allied French do not have a figure to rally around. Supposedly he was nearly killed on his way to Great Britain due to attacks by the Luftwaffe, but I don't know any specifics.

As for French loyalties to the Vichy French Government, I am sure if they play up the attack on Mers-el-Kebir enough, the great majority of the French will fight for the Axis; not for the sake of aiding Germany, but for the sake of getting back at the British. I never realized, however, that the vote was so close in the Vichy Cabinet for war.

However, if Vichy France is in the Axis, will Japan still pressure them over French Indochina now that they are Allies with Germany?
 
Darlan being more adventurous = the marine nationale goes allied in 41.
He hated the germans even more than the british and thoroughly despised Laval.

A Vichy dow could work, but Darlan did not merely fear retaliating, he gave strict orders, multiple times, against any sortie against the british: he didn't want it.

Indeed Darlan was quite a complicated character to say the least!
 
As for French loyalties to the Vichy French Government, I am sure if they play up the attack on Mers-el-Kebir enough, the great majority of the French will fight for the Axis; not for the sake of aiding Germany, but for the sake of getting back at the British. I never realized, however, that the vote was so close in the Vichy Cabinet for war.

I'm not quite sure that would be the case, after all, the support for the peace came from the reluctance of the French populace to really fight a war after the horrors of WWI; I can't really see them jumping to fight another enemy barely weeks after the war with Germany was finished. Also, for the Vichyites to field a significant army they'd have to introduce conscription, which could lead to a situation like the OTL Obligatory Work Service, where many fit young men leg it and join the Maquis rather than get drafted in.
 
You would have to get Hitler to make concessions which he surely won't agree to, from French rearmament to Alsace-Lorraine, otherwise France isn't going to be much of a factor with 100,000 soldiers and a fleet a majority of whose battleships and cruisers are either in British hands or open to British attack.
 
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