Second would be whatever Italian naval interdiction there eight be with the Traffic between the souther port group & Africa. What happens there depends on how aggressive the Italian get. A secondary factor is Brit assistance from the fleet based at Gibraltar (I abased in the Tunisian ports m not sure if it was labeled "Force H" in June 1940.) I don't think they were hunting surface raiders that summer, so they ought to be free to lend a hand. Based on the track record OTL the Italian submarines are likely to be the most successful here, tho with the density of French warships in the traffic submarine losses would be at least at their historical levels if not higher.
At some loin the Italians are going to try to attack Corsica. That may be tied to interdiction of the evacuation, or come later. How this Leone Marino might develop I'll leave for later.
1. I think OTL RN forces in the region were mostly used against Vichy France (Dakar, Mers-el-Kébir, ...), so they're available.
2. I agree that the more efficient threat from the RM is the subs. I don't really see Italy intensively using their surface fleet when they are outnumbered 2 to 1 or more.
3. Corsica can only be held (for some tine) if Sardinia is neutralized (the airfields and the naval base), or best case invaded. But I don't think Italy have the forces to do more than bomb Corsica until the end of the year, the fighting in France and in Libya will suck up all reserves in men and materials. Bonus if Sardinia is neutralized, it's bases cannot be use to attack French convoys to NA.
I found this on the British strategy following the fall of France https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/UK-Med-I/UK-Med-I-7.html
The force at Gibraltar hadn't yet been named H.
The British had to reevaluate the situation in the Med and the Far East telling the ANZACs that there would be no RN reinforcements at the time. Also the link to Turkey vanished.
Also tell of the French Navy since April 1940 had been based in North African ports; there must have been facilities there to support such a move even if Mers-El-Kebir was still building up. On the Richelieu wiki its stated that the ship left French port directed to go to Casablanca a deviation from the initial order to go to the Clyde. The ship carried 250 380mm grenades but only 48 charges and no 152mm shells. At Dakar the ship had replenished with 152mm ammo and stored charges for 340mm guns had been rebagged to serve as 380mm charges - in essence the French had stored some ammunition at the colonial bases. Good idea. Also the local Dock Yard began repairing the damage incurred by the RN attack of 8. July 1940. Even if the repair effort didn't fully restore the ship there was a local capacity. Of course if France fights on the big doorstop isn't needed in Dakar but then it might not be able to replenish its ammo!
Stuff then could be moved around once the French exodus gets its shit together.
I remember reading that a French 380mm gun and a British 15' could exchange their ammo. If it's true, the Richelieu doesn't have an issue for it's main guns.
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