WI:France never arrive to vietnam.

In OTL, Ngyuen Gia Long unified vietnam with the help of french armies. Which allowed french infleunce in indochina, And give a birth to french indochina in the future.
In this TL, Siameese armies failed to help him and france refused to help him which will butterflied powerful vietnam and caused siam to be surrounded by their enemy(Stagnant Burmar and Tay-Son vietnam which will be more hosilte due to intervertion in vietnam)
Possiblity
British Indochina
Eastern Indochina being battleground of british siam and china/some colonial power who managed to annex vietnam
More Siameese Infleunce on eastern land(In this TL, Siameese may give up southern province and lanna in order to maintain chaopraya delta,mekong river which can potentially be agriculture powerhouse)
More Chineese Infleunced Vietnam

Sorry for not stating goal of this TL, The goal is to retain siam infleunce in lao and cambodia with weaker vietnam and no french, Vietnam surviving is preferable because siam will only have to deal with british.



What do you guy thing? Is this plausible or pure ASB?
 
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Depends, France technically never help Gia Long despite having signed an official agreement since the army in question refused to go, so the french expedition force is mostly made up of volunteers raised this guy -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Pigneau_de_Behaine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Pigneau_de_Behaine
Since the PoD is France refuse to help Gia Long, Pigneau would have raise the volunteer forces anyway and, in the event that Quang Trung still died, events will still go the same as OTL and the Nguyen dynasty will still came back into power. The only difference this time is that France won't have a valid CB to invade Vietnam.

The Nguyen monarchs want to be a neutral regarding the Great Powers, not wanting to directly support any specific one, even refusing a British special trade agreement.

Though realistically speaking, the chance of Vietnam stay independence and neutral is close to zero since unlike Siam it's terrain is very vulnerable to naval invasion (3,260 kilometers long coastline holding all major cities of the country). If not France then eventually Japan, Britain or some other great powers will have a go at it, though the result of that particular war depends entirely on the competency of the Nguyen court. Best case scenario it'll be another Ethiopia, realistically though the Nguyen will try to avoid outright war and agreed to be subservient to the power in question.

Qing influencing or outright annexing Vietnam though is total ASB; they already influence it as much as they could and have neither motives, drives or powers to do outright invade Vietnam; even if they do try the result won't be pretty and they will get thrown out one way or another.
 
Depends, France technically never help Gia Long despite having signed an official agreement since the army in question refused to go, so the french expedition force is mostly made up of volunteers raised this guy -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Pigneau_de_Behaine
Since the PoD is France refuse to help Gia Long, Pigneau would have raise the volunteer forces anyway and, in the event that Quang Trung still died, events will still go the same as OTL and the Nguyen dynasty will still came back into power. The only difference this time is that France won't have a valid CB to invade Vietnam.

The Nguyen monarchs want to be a neutral regarding the Great Powers, not wanting to directly support any specific one, even refusing a British special trade agreement.

Though realistically speaking, the chance of Vietnam stay independence and neutral is close to zero since unlike Siam it's terrain is very vulnerable to naval invasion (3,260 kilometers long coastline holding all major cities of the country). If not France then eventually Japan, Britain or some other great powers will have a go at it, though the result of that particular war depends entirely on the competency of the Nguyen court. Best case scenario it'll be another Ethiopia, realistically though the Nguyen will try to avoid outright war and agreed to be subservient to the power in question.

Qing influencing or outright annexing Vietnam though is total ASB; they already influence it as much as they could and have neither motives, drives or powers to do outright invade Vietnam; even if they do try the result won't be pretty and they will get thrown out one way or another.
Is there any chance that vietnam will fight with siam for dominion of cambodia, Or vietnam will need a time to rest?
 

Lusitania

Donor
I could see Vietnam coast and port cities being taken by number of European countries along with even Japan. Europeans including France would not ignore and leave a single country alone without some sort of "protection" being provided. Imperialism was the predominant 19th century mentality. If this TL is to be centered on Vietnam then you will need to develop the major POD outside it to support an independent Vietnam. The British had no interest in Vietnam as their influence lay in Siam and China plus their control of trade in region was unprecedented and had no interest in Indochina at time. The only reason for them to enter Vietnam would be to prevent someone else whom they detested. A move into Indochina would upset their other strategic, and trade interests at time. France involvement was a result of French desire to expand the French Imperial Empire and the limited slim picking in the late 19th century, Vietnam was the easiest and least costly way to put French flag on Asia ground. So to prevent France you will need to have France being hamstrung and hurt back home, to remove Imperialism then you remove the British and other Europeans too.
 
If Cochinchina could have escaped French domination rather easily I'd say you would have a colonial power somewhere around the Tonkin region, the Red River was seen as too convenient a gateway to the Chinese Hinterland
 

Lusitania

Donor
If the goal is for a strong Vietnam that will resist European imperaialism it will take a POD much earlier such as 15-16th century.
 
I dunno
I think 18th - early 19th century is good enough tbh

As long as they don't become as isolationism and conservative as they are in OTL then they got a decent chance.

The entire French invasion of Vietnam was a lucky streak tbh, had the Nguyen not chickened-out every single damn time the French fire a cannon and just declare national war on France the moment they landed on Cochinchina thus not allowing the French to build up their forces they probably would have eventually won.
 
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Sorry for not stating goal of this TL, The goal is to retain siam infleunce in lao and cambodia with weaker vietnam and no french, Vietnam surviving is preferable because siam will only have to deal with british.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Sorry for not stating goal of this TL, The goal is to retain siam infleunce in lao and cambodia with weaker vietnam and no french, Vietnam surviving is preferable because siam will only have to deal with british.

Well if that the case the best would be for the British to continue supporting Siam and it continue to modernize. In the meantime French are not only ones who take interest in Vietnam and it becomes scene of several countries trade posts and enclaves. This keeps the Vietnamese and European occupied while Laos and Cambodia continue unde Siamese control.
 
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Since Britain would probably be the most likely candidate to fill the void of no French in Vietnam, what would be the fate of Siam?

Since the Thais managed to play off the two colonial rivals to maintain their independence, with no France in the picture, could all of SE Asia (i.e. Indochina and Thailand) have been swallowed up into the British Empire, which would now stretch unbroken from Pakistan to Singapore?
 
Since Britain would probably be the most likely candidate to fill the void of no French in Vietnam, what would be the fate of Siam?

Since the Thais managed to play off the two colonial rivals to maintain their independence, with no France in the picture, could all of SE Asia (i.e. Indochina and Thailand) have been swallowed up into the British Empire, which would now stretch unbroken from Pakistan to Singapore?
Maybe, Nobody in SE can survive without french.
But what if both siam and vietnam somehow join unlikely alliance that formed against britain, With china.
 
I dunno
I think 18th - early 19th century is good enough tbh

As long as they don't become as isolationism and conservative as they are in OTL then they got a decent chance.

The entire French invasion of Vietnam was a lucky streak tbh, had the Nguyen not chickened-out every single damn time the French fire a cannon and just declare national war on France the moment they landed on Cochinchina thus not allowing the French to build up their forces they probably would have eventually won.
Well, the invasion wasn't easy but at least in the early stages, there was quite the resistance.
It did take the arrival of the full Escadre d'Extreme Orient to decide the war.

Plus, based on battles like the siege of Saigon, I'm not sure how good the vietnamese army was against a determined enemy.

So my diagnosis is they tried but couldn't. This is unlike the second and third round in 73 and 84 when it really feels like they just gave up on life
 
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