WI:France lose's The Battle of Valmy?

quite obviously, the butterflies are enormous:

If France gets restored to a monarchy, Spain/Portugal do not start and lose the War of the Pyrenees, which ended Spain's pretention to world power status.

Napoleonic wars are avoided and all the effects there are too many to list. Even aside from all the European political stuff, you don't have the spreading of the Napoleonic Code.

Central/South American history is completely different.

North American history is dramatically changed, as there's no Louisiana Purchase and it still belongs to Spain. War of 1812 never happens.

Britain probably still rises to a position of dominance due to it's leadership in the industrial revolution, but it doesn't come as quick or possibly as completely as OTL. South African history changes as Netherlands hold onto the cape.
 
quite obviously, the butterflies are enormous:

If France gets restored to a monarchy, Spain/Portugal do not start and lose the War of the Pyrenees, which ended Spain's pretention to world power status.

Napoleonic wars are avoided and all the effects there are too many to list. Even aside from all the European political stuff, you don't have the spreading of the Napoleonic Code.

Central/South American history is completely different.

North American history is dramatically changed, as there's no Louisiana Purchase and it still belongs to Spain. War of 1812 never happens.

Britain probably still rises to a position of dominance due to it's leadership in the industrial revolution, but it doesn't come as quick or possibly as completely as OTL. South African history changes as Netherlands hold onto the cape.

Pretty much
 
Does the allied army actually take Paris, though? They were really going slow about it OTL, and the Prussians weren't too invested in the whole idea - they really wanted to extricate themselves so they could focus on carving up Poland. In 1793, with France facing a far more formidable constellation of foes, the Allies did very little to actually move on Paris.

If they do get to Paris, I suspect that they won't find a living Louis XVI.

So a foreign army installs Louis XVII (or Louis XVIII, if the mob goes particularly crazy) at the point of the bayonet. What next? Neither the Prussians nor the Austrians are going to want to occupy France forever. That would just let the Russians do whatever they want in the east, which neither of them can allow.

But can a restored Bourbon regime actually establish itself in 1792 without active foreign involvement? Even if the Austrians and Prussians stay, is this arrangement going to work for any length of time?

It's really hard to see what exactly would happen next.
 
quite obviously, the butterflies are enormous:<snip>

North American history is dramatically changed, as there's no Louisiana Purchase and it still belongs to Spain. (1) War of 1812 never happens. (2)

1) The combination of poor Spanish colonial rule, LOCs, and sheer osmosis will dictate that Spain will lose Louisiana anyway. And with eventual Mexican independence, so too the future SW USA.

2) If the Royal Navy decides to get rid of Impressment (as I expect they will without Napoleon to deal with), yes.

Does the allied army actually take Paris, though? They were really going slow about it OTL, and the Prussians weren't too invested in the whole idea - they really wanted to extricate themselves so they could focus on carving up Poland. In 1793, with France facing a far more formidable constellation of foes, the Allies did very little to actually move on Paris.

If they do get to Paris, I suspect that they won't find a living Louis XVI.

So a foreign army installs Louis XVII (or Louis XVIII, if the mob goes particularly crazy) at the point of the bayonet. What next?

It's really hard to see what exactly would happen next.

Louis XVIII eventually goes the way of his nephew and grandnephew, when the French populace explodes again. The French Revolution was not a fluke, and being destroyed by the work of outside invading armies rather than by internal forces only shows to the world the complete illegitimacy of Bourbon rule. At least post-Napoleonic Wars it could honestly be said that the European powers were acting in their own national self-defense, rather than purely in the name of defending aristocratic privilege and royalist rule.
 
usertron

without the napoleonic wars distracting Spain, they maintain the aura of being the boss, and also the physical/military means to strike back. Maintaining those two things means they maintain control over their empire for a lot longer. I'm certainly not going to say that they could maintain it forever, but the timing and the circumstances are going to be much different. It's the same sort of thing with the Louisiana Purchase territories. the timing/circumstances are going to change dramatically. The US going to war with Spain, who still has pretentions of being a world power, is a whole lot different than going to war with Mexico.

No napoleonic wars means no War of 1812. End of story.
 
A non-Bonaparted Spain has no reason to sell Louisiana. It would be absurd. So the only way it could go to USA would be military conquest. Not easy. Maybe it could lead to a Spanish-USA war of 1812!
 
usertron

without the napoleonic wars distracting Spain, they maintain the aura of being the boss, and also the physical/military means to strike back. Maintaining those two things means they maintain control over their empire for a lot longer. I'm certainly not going to say that they could maintain it forever, but the timing and the circumstances are going to be much different. It's the same sort of thing with the Louisiana Purchase territories. the timing/circumstances are going to change dramatically. The US going to war with Spain, who still has pretentions of being a world power, is a whole lot different than going to war with Mexico.

No napoleonic wars means no War of 1812. End of story.

A non-Bonaparted Spain has no reason to sell Louisiana. It would be absurd. So the only way it could go to USA would be military conquest. Not easy. Maybe it could lead to a Spanish-USA war of 1812!

Also the War of 1812 wasn't a British victory, because of British lack of interest in the war. At the beginning of the war, the Americans were weak and could have been crushed, but the Napoleonic wars postponed a strong British reaction for years. So if the US, attacks Spain, Spain repulses them and wins the war. This would set back the US by a good deal of time.
 
Also the War of 1812 wasn't a British victory, because of British lack of interest in the war. At the beginning of the war, the Americans were weak and could have been crushed, but the Napoleonic wars postponed a strong British reaction for years.

Quite aside from the already-mentioned idea that the War of 1812 wouldn't have even started with the Napoleonic Wars, because (a) there would be no need for the British to antagonise the Americans with impressment of English-speaking sailors and (b) even if the British did so then I doubt that the 1810s United States would try to defeat an undistracted British Empire.

So if the US, attacks Spain, Spain repulses them and wins the war. This would set back the US by a good deal of time.

Why so? If the Hispano-American war is over Florida (which I would expect, if there was such a war in this time-period), it's worth noting that ever since colonial times there had been a few outposts in Florida and little de facto Spanish control. Perhaps the Spanish would succeed anyway, but I don't think that Spanish rule in Florida is easily defensible, and since that's probably the American war goal anyway…
 
Why so? If the Hispano-American war is over Florida (which I would expect, if there was such a war in this time-period), it's worth noting that ever since colonial times there had been a few outposts in Florida and little de facto Spanish control. Perhaps the Spanish would succeed anyway, but I don't think that Spanish rule in Florida is easily defensible, and since that's probably the American war goal anyway…

Ah but with mexico still in Spanish hands Florida is still valuable to Spain. And nonetheless after Jefferson the US army is weak.
 
Louis XVIII eventually goes the way of his nephew and grandnephew, when the French populace explodes again. The French Revolution was not a fluke, and being destroyed by the work of outside invading armies rather than by internal forces only shows to the world the complete illegitimacy of Bourbon rule. At least post-Napoleonic Wars it could honestly be said that the European powers were acting in their own national self-defense, rather than purely in the name of defending aristocratic privilege and royalist rule.

But if the Revoluionary armies fail disastorously at the first hurdle is 'the Republic' going to retain much currency?

Remember in this timeline the French people will have witnessed the revolutionaries being soundly whipped in the field; that is going to be a huge psychological blow.
 
A non-Bonaparted Spain has no reason to sell Louisiana. It would be absurd. So the only way it could go to USA would be military conquest. Not easy. Maybe it could lead to a Spanish-USA war of 1812!

France conceivably could have asked for the return of Louisiana even without Bonaparte in power. It ceded Louisiana in the first place as compensation for Spain's loss of Florida to the British. Spain regained Florida in 1783, so France theoretically had a right to request Louisiana back. In any event the colony remained largely French-speaking, and not all that economically productive so it may not have been that valuable to the Spanish.
 
But if the Revoluionary armies fail disastorously at the first hurdle is 'the Republic' going to retain much currency?

Remember in this timeline the French people will have witnessed the revolutionaries being soundly whipped in the field; that is going to be a huge psychological blow.

Keep in mind that the French Republic was formally declared the day after Valmy. (The victory in that battle is said to have emboldened the deputies into making that declaration.) France was still nominally a monarchy when it was fought. Also, note that the National Convention took its seats that same day. The Revolution at this point is just beginning its most radical, divisive phase - the execution of Louis XVI, Reign of Terror, the dechristianization of the country, etc. have not yet happened. Most of the reforms enacted prior to the Convention had been generally popular. Any subsequent government at that point that tries to undo all the 1789-92 reforms is going to face a lot of hostility.
 
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