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I've been exploring the consequences of what happens if the Soviets do better on the Eastern Front. One of the interesting side questions is that if the Soviets do well enough that Germany is defeated by late 1943 or thereabouts (before Britain and the US are able to land a serious invasion force in France), what happens to France?

(Note, I do not see any real possibility that the Soviets can come further West than the Rhine - the logistics are simply too challenging for the Soviets to liberate France with their own tanks and boots - or at least, there's no possibility it could happen before other actors can move on France.)

1) One option, if the Germans to not dismantle the Vichy regime in the late war as they did in OTL's late war, is the Vichy regime can re-enter the war on the allied side and liberate German-occupied France. I am very curious how such a turncoat Vichy regime would be received by the Allies. For example, how would De Gaule feel about the Vichy government and would the Free French and the Vichy French be able to come together and work together after the end of the war?

My own gut feeling is that in the early cold war, such a more right wing France would likely come together, but there would be a gulf between the Gaulist right and the Fascist right. Though one that would be papered over in the face of a stronger Soviet Union.

2) The other option, which I suspect is only really possible if the Germans occupy Vichy France in the late war as they did in OTL, is that the partisans throw the Germans out and form a French government on their own. As I understand it, the French partisans were dominated by the Communists, which raises the interesting scenario of a Cold War with a "Titoist" great power.

I say "Titoist" since I can't see a Communist France and a Communist Soviet Union staying close for too long - while both sides might be enthusiastic in the early stages of the Cold War, France and the Soviets have too many interests that would tend to pull them apart.

Especially interesting is what happens to the French colonies and the Free French in such a scenario - I can see a situation in which De Gaule, the Pieds Noirs, the British and the US would all find it preferable to create a "Free France" in Algeria with perhaps ownership of Corsica and the other French Colonies.

That might escalate into a situation where the French essentially fight a civil war over their colonies. With the mainland Communist French subsidizing and sending expert help to socialist revolutionaries working against the De Gaule Free French Fascist Oppressors.

Considering what a mess Algeria was, I can easily see things getting very, very unpleasant there in a situation like this.

So what do other people think might happen if France freed itself during WW2? Any interesting scenarios I've not considered? Anyone have any criticisms of my ideas above?

fasquardon
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