Deleted member 94680
A lot depends on just how bad off the Germans are in the east. If they are near collapse when attacked in the west the Red Army can hope to gain a lot. If they are close to stalemate in the east then there is the possibility of dragging things out through 1943, maybe into 1944.
If it looks like the Germans will collapse in 43 the Manhatten project would be reduced in priority. The dual program for both Uranium & Plutonium bombs might be reduced to a single track program for only Plutonium bombs. Or it might be scaled down to a research project, and actual production postponed at considerable savings. A number of other US longer term development programs would be cut down to lower cost research with no development budgeted.
So Nazi Europe was the driver for Manhattan as opposed to Imperial Japan? Does this mean Operation Downfall is back to being the most likely endgame for the Pacific?