WI: France invaded and occupied Catalonia in 1938?

Zachariah

Banned
Even after covert support by France to the Republicans ended in December 1936, the possibility of French intervention against the Nationalists remained a serious possibility throughout the Spanish Civil War. German intelligence reported to Franco and the Nationalists that the French military was engaging in open discussions about intervention in the war through French military intervention in Catalonia and the Balearic Islands, and in 1938, after hard-fought victory in the decisive Battle of Teruel, Franco feared an immediate French intervention against a potential Nationalist victory in Spain, through a French invasion and occupation of Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, and Spanish Morocco. So then, what if, in an ATL, the French had actually gone ahead and done this, intervening militarily and launching their invasion in March 1938? Could this have potentially kicked off WW2 in itself? Or with the Sudetenland crisis looming, might WW2 have kicked off in September 1938 instead, with the French military intervention in Spain giving them a greater obligation to defend Czechoslovakia along with the Soviets as per the terms of their mutual military assistance treaties (and placing Poland into the Axis camp ITTL)? How do you think that things might have played out, if the French had intervened in the Spanish Civil War as expected?
 
Germany and Italy might go to war with France early,Spain will probably join the Axis. Portugal could also get involved,seeing as they had also backed the Nationalists.

I imagine the British may just stay neutral and the Germans will invade France early. Germany will still probably invade Poland and Czecholslovakia at some point though so don't expect Eastern Europe to remain unscathed from Germany.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Germany and Italy might go to war with France early,Spain will probably join the Axis. Portugal could also get involved,seeing as they had also backed the Nationalists.

I imagine the British may just stay neutral and the Germans will invade France early. Germany will still probably invade Poland and Czecholslovakia at some point though so don't expect Eastern Europe to remain unscathed from Germany.

Do you feel that the Axis would have been guaranteed victory if things had panned out this way then?
 
Do you feel that the Axis would have been guaranteed victory if things had panned out this way then?

Probably not,once Hitler turns on the Soviets and attacks the British he is done. Also,the US will still support the British and the French with Lend-Lease.

Besides,I don't think Hitler would ever truly be able to 'win'. The Nazis would constantly be bogged down with resistance movements and bombings,even if they don't attack the Soviets after taking France. I also doubt they would be able to win Africa,as even Rommel was outsmarted and outsupplied in North Africa.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Hitler might not even finish off France and get to initiate aggression against the USSR, or Britain, if war begins in this manner, and in 1938, especially the earlier parts of the year.

How apopleptic do the French right-of-center parties go in reaction to such a French govt move? I think to some extent French and British conservatives were incapable of seeing intervention in Spain in solely realpolitik terms as a move against German and Italian proxies, rather they saw intervention on the Republic's behalf as an endorsement of Spanish and Soviet leftism and an indicator of domestic revolutionary plans. So, not a risk-free move for Paris.
 
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Thomas1195

Banned
Well, Italian troops would be massacred in Alpine line. Germany would face a true coalition war of France and some Eastern European allies, and Britain had to join if they want Germany not to win. This is a modified version of No Munich, war in 1938. Germany cannot win before 1939.
 
Two obvious problem: (1) the strong British opposition, and (2) the fact that Daladier, who did somewhat sympathize with the Spanish Republic, was no dictator and had to reckon with opposition from fellow Radicals like Bonnet:

"Nothing short of fully-fledged French intervention could prevent the Republic's military debacle. And this was not an option. The British, who were always ready to stop French 'adventurism', informed Daladier that Ciano had warned that any last-minute intervention in Spain would risk a Euorpean war. Mussolini was boasting of being ready to send Italian divisions to Spain, regardless of the consequences.66 Appeasement was coming full circle. After two years of shameless surrenders, it was not the advance of Axis forces towards the Franco-Spanish frontier but the potential French reaction which imperiled peace! By then, however, while Daladier hesitated but still retained a certain sympathy for the Republic's cause, Bonnet was beginning to impose his line and to explore ways of gaining the favour of the Nationalist victors..." https://books.google.com/books?id=tJQcBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA173
 

raharris1973

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This still would be fun to play out- daladier says eff it. britain says eff you Daladier. Germany almost certainly goes for Austria next.

Does the French military follow Daladier's orders? Does he face a parliamentary no confidence vote?

The republican French combo should be able to stymie the nationalist Italian condor legion combo, especially if USSR boosts aid.

The Italians are getting repelled in any cross border attacks and are losing Libya.

Do the Germans join in or just start private wars with eastern neighbors? If the Germans do join in they probably cannot get past the Low Countries in a single years campaigning.
 
Military action by France would require either 1. A full mobilization of the army. Or: 2. Use of colonial soldiers.

Either had major draw backs. & either would be necessary as France had no field army in its peace time form. Standing forces in peace time France consisted of a border guard of immobile frontier regiments and training units in the interior. Neither of these were capable of expeditionary action. Standing up field armies out of the Metropolitan reservists required mobilization across the board. A partial mobilization was impractical under the existing system and would have required months of preparation and staff work. The system was designed this way to prevent French leaders from unilaterally dragging the nation into war, and to prevent a military coup. This was one of the reasons France failed to respond to the Rhineland occupation in 1936. A force adaquate to expel the Germans necessitated activating a oversize chunk of the army, for more than actually needed. This had both economic and severe political problems.

Standing field forces existed in the colonies, but those were designed for small unit ops & were not easily able to form army or corps size groups. Again it could take months before a meaningful expeditionary force could be formed up.

A seperate problem is how to pay for this. War is expensive & there was no emergency in reserve for ad hoc military adventures. France had been reducing training to keep its large army in existance and leave funds for R & D. If Daladier or anyone else wants to send several corps marching off into Spain a tax increase in inevitable, as well as large scale government borrowing. Either is anathema to the Chamber of Deputies.
 
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