WI: France intervenes in the Boshin War

From the beginning of the Boshin War until early March 1869, the Shogunate's one true ally in the Boshin War was the French, represented by Leon Roches. The French had a miliary mision in Tokugawa-occupied Japan, training the Denshutai, the Shogun's elite guard. The French also trained seven infantry regiments, one cavalry battalion and four artillery battalions. The French also sold the Shogunate Minie rifles and 200 cases of material, including artillery pieces.

Before the war, France had a strong relationship with the Shogunate, sending engineers to build industrial plants and sending military missions to train the Shogunate's army and soon took a central place in the modernization of Japan's military.

So, with all of this in mind, what if France had become militarily involved in the Boshin War at the Battle of Toba-Fushimi, allowing Tokugawa to dislodge his enemies from Kyoto and maintaining the Shogunate?
 
Sorry if this is a necropost, but I didn't see any thread inactivity warnings. I'm just bumping this because it didnt get any attention and seems like a fairly interesting WI.
 
The French military mission was quite modest in size, with only 17 soldiers. An expedition would need men and time. We could imagine a fleet action, as in Korea in 1866, rather than a land battle. Would ten modern ships be enough to turn the tide in favour of the Tokugawa ?
 
The French military mission was quite modest in size, with only 17 soldiers. An expedition would need men and time. We could imagine a fleet action, as in Korea in 1866, rather than a land battle. Would ten modern ships be enough to turn the tide in favour of the Tokugawa ?
They would probably have a sizable enough contingent in Cochinchina though, I'd expect the Escadre d'Extrême Orient to be around too
 
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