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Most discussion of foreign intervention in the US Civil War on this forum revolves around what would happen if Britain got involved, either on its own or in conjunction with France. I was wondering, though: what would happen if Napoleon III, but not the British, decided to recognise the Confederacy? IOTL Napoleon was probably more pro-Confederacy than the UK, but he didn't want to recognise them without Britain doing so as well. Maybe ITTL he decides that it's unlikely that Britain would do anything one way or the other, and that the potential advantages of having a friendly state next to Mexico (where Napoleon is currently supporting the Emperor Maximillian) outweigh the potential disadvantages of annoying the US. What would be the result of this? Would Northern public opinion be willing to continue the war if it looked like international opinion was turning in favour of the Confederacy? Would Napoleon send aid to the Confederacy, and if so, of what kind? Would this mean war between France and the US? And how would the rest of the world react?
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