WI: France falls in 6 months to a year instead of 6 weeks

Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
 
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Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit?
If we can find a mechanism to make it work (I'll leave that to others), then the Germans will have been bled dry, which means that Operation Barbarossa, assuming it even happens (unlikely but depressingly possible), will collapse at the Stalin Line.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If we can find a mechanism to make it work (I'll leave that to others), then the Germans will have been bled dry, which means that Operation Barbarossa, assuming it even happens (unlikely but depressingly possible), will collapse at the Stalin Line.
Wouldn't Operation Barbarossa be delayed by a year in this scenario?
 
OTL it took Germany a year to recover from the battles in the west and realign for an attack east. here the losses will be much higher and if they do Barbarossa it will be in 1942 at the soonest. Also if Germany is fighting in France through the end of 1941 or in to the spring of 1942, German advances in the Balkans, Greece, Crete, as well as supporting any Italian effort in North Africa can't happen because there won't be the resources to do this on the OTL schedule. This means that Yugoslavia, Greece, North Africa are in better shape to resist the Axis if and when these attacks occur. Not good for Germany...
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
OTL it took Germany a year to recover from the battles in the west and realign for an attack east. here the losses will be much higher and if they do Barbarossa it will be in 1942 at the soonest. Also if Germany is fighting in France through the end of 1941 or in to the spring of 1942, German advances in the Balkans, Greece, Crete, as well as supporting any Italian effort in North Africa. Not good for Germany...
Agreed with all of this.

Also, do you think that a longer fight before the Fall of France would convince the French government to flee to North Africa rather than to make peace?
 

trurle

Banned
Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
The original German expectations was exactly this ATL scenario. And prolonged war in France likely mean the Operation Barbarossa is cancelled outright. Mostly because Greco-Italian war is going to become very tough for Italy. Likely ending in stalemate, or even up to internal collapse of Italy before Germany can intervene. Many of the OTL German allies (most notably Romania and Bulgary) will be very reluctant to initiate fight on German behalf. Therefore, focus of WWII will shift to Italy/Albania/Yugoslavia/Greece region. And at this point Soviet Union may invade German-held parts of Poland..
 
The original German expectations was exactly this ATL scenario. And prolonged war in France likely mean the Operation Barbarossa is cancelled outright. Mostly because Greco-Italian war is going to become very tough for Italy. Likely ending in stalemate, or even up to internal collapse of Italy before Germany can intervene.

Likely never going to happen. Mussolini declared war in all hurry on June 10, when the Germans had all but trampled all over North-Eastern France. He was sure the war would be over in a couple of weeks tops. The Greek stunt only came after an in-for-a-penny situation.
If in TTL the Germans are having trench warfare somewhere in central Belgium at this date, Mussolini keeps Italy out and happily sells medium-quality arms to the highest bidder.
 
Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?

Actually, the more time passes, the more it becomes plausible that Hitler has a pistol-cleaning accident and Germany sues for peace. The long-term slog was exactly what the Allies wanted and planned for. If the German throw of the dice in May 1940 fails - and it might suffice some mishap at some key turning point, say at Eben Emael, for that to happen - the Germans will have expended the better part of their armor. They can build more, but that's also what the French and British are doing. And in defeating that first German attempt, one might hope the French have taken something of their measure, too.
Note Germany is dependent on Romanian and Soviet oil.
The Romanians won't be all that afraid of a Germany that has all of its troops in trenches in Belgium, in Poland staring at the Soviets, and in the Siegfried line, so there won't be a Vienna arbitrate nor exceptionally favorable prices for their oil. The Germans can buy it, at fair trade prices, and the Allies can outbuy them at least in part.
As to the Soviet trade agreement, that was down black on white, but in fact the Soviet deliveries were puny, until Germany won its astounding victory in the West. Then the Soviets felt compelled to start delivering. One wonders if they wouldn't find that there are unforeseen technical difficulties in their deliveries, in TTL; they'll keep promising, naturally.
 
Actually, the more time passes, the more it becomes plausible that Hitler has a pistol-cleaning accident and Germany sues for peace. The long-term slog was exactly what the Allies wanted and planned for. If the German throw of the dice in May 1940 fails - and it might suffice some mishap at some key turning point, say at Eben Emael, for that to happen - the Germans will have expended the better part of their armor. They can build more, but that's also what the French and British are doing. And in defeating that first German attempt, one might hope the French have taken something of their measure, too.
Note Germany is dependent on Romanian and Soviet oil.
The Romanians won't be all that afraid of a Germany that has all of its troops in trenches in Belgium, in Poland staring at the Soviets, and in the Siegfried line, so there won't be a Vienna arbitrate nor exceptionally favorable prices for their oil. The Germans can buy it, at fair trade prices, and the Allies can outbuy them at least in part.
As to the Soviet trade agreement, that was down black on white, but in fact the Soviet deliveries were puny, until Germany won its astounding victory in the West. Then the Soviets felt compelled to start delivering. One wonders if they wouldn't find that there are unforeseen technical difficulties in their deliveries, in TTL; they'll keep promising, naturally.
What is the condition of Paris?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Actually, the more time passes, the more it becomes plausible that Hitler has a pistol-cleaning accident and Germany sues for peace. The long-term slog was exactly what the Allies wanted and planned for. If the German throw of the dice in May 1940 fails - and it might suffice some mishap at some key turning point, say at Eben Emael, for that to happen - the Germans will have expended the better part of their armor. They can build more, but that's also what the French and British are doing. And in defeating that first German attempt, one might hope the French have taken something of their measure, too.
Note Germany is dependent on Romanian and Soviet oil.
The Romanians won't be all that afraid of a Germany that has all of its troops in trenches in Belgium, in Poland staring at the Soviets, and in the Siegfried line, so there won't be a Vienna arbitrate nor exceptionally favorable prices for their oil. The Germans can buy it, at fair trade prices, and the Allies can outbuy them at least in part.
As to the Soviet trade agreement, that was down black on white, but in fact the Soviet deliveries were puny, until Germany won its astounding victory in the West. Then the Soviets felt compelled to start delivering. One wonders if they wouldn't find that there are unforeseen technical difficulties in their deliveries, in TTL; they'll keep promising, naturally.
What you're saying will certainly be true if the front lines become stalled for an extremely long period of time; however, if the Germans keep advancing further into France (even if achieving total victory is a very slow process), Hitler isn't going to get overthrown.
 
What is the condition of Paris?
The German invasion of France could turn into a Barbarossa. Paris is surrounded and put under siege like Leningrad. No Battle of the Marne 2.0 in 1940. Hitler would no doubt order the Luftwaffe to blast Paris into rubble. Perhaps the French capital holds out through the winter?
 
If Paris is attacked in such a manner I'd think the French would never surrender and fight their utmost hardest. Germany would be bled white and would sue for peace.
 
Even with the six week win the Germans lost 27,000 dead, 111,000 wounded and 18,000 missing along with 1200 aircraft and around 800 tanks. If it took around 30 weeks we can assume that number goes up quite a bit. I think Germany would have to do what they OTL did not do until after Stalingrad, go for total war and mobilise every man for the military.
 
Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
If the German advance stalls out long enough for it to drag on for 6 months then it's probably going to drag on much longer.

For the USSR this means no Barbarossa, but but interestingly they don't know about that. All they know is that every moment France is independent is another moment the French are trying to talk the UK into bombing Baku. So they will continue suppling resources to the Nazis and ordering the French Communist Party to undermine the French War effort. So in the long run this may turn the USSR into an international pariah, probably not as bad for the development of the USSR as losing 26 million people, but I'm sure someone here will pull out a damning chart of counterfactual projects for a USSR cut off from the global economy.
 
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Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?

With both numerical and technological superiority heavily leaning to the French the only chance of a German victory in 1940 is through a swift assault (blitzkrieg).
 

Archibald

Banned
France was preparing for a 1941 war of atrition. So Germany couldn't wait too long. After tremendous initial difficulties, French tanks, French combat aircrafts, and American combat aircrafts were coming in large numbers. Spring 1940 was the moment it really kicked up.
 

Archibald

Banned
Even with the six week win the Germans lost 27,000 dead, 111,000 wounded and 18,000 missing along with 1200 aircraft and around 800 tanks. If it took around 30 weeks we can assume that number goes up quite a bit. I think Germany would have to do what they OTL did not do until after Stalingrad, go for total war and mobilise every man for the military.

In French fights On the French campaign last until august 8, 1940 and the German death toll climbs to 56 000 death. Wargaming most optimistic scenarios showed a tiny pocket of France could held until September.
 
Most I see the Soviets doing in Eastern Europe is invading and securing a Romanian Socialist Republic instead of just taking Bessarabia. I can also see th em coincidentally reneging on deliveries of oil to Hitler every time it seems like Germany is making gains in France. If the USSR has Romania, then it is the only source of oil for Germany during WWII. So Germany has the choice to defend the Romanians from the Soviets, opening up a two-front war with no reliable source of oil, or they can take what the Soviets give them.

I agree with Broek that the French had superiority at the beginning of the war, but I can imagine a scenario where a significant amount of the French army is captured in May 1940, but they manage to organize a defense before the Germans reach Paris. The Germans manage another offensive in August where Paris is taken, but by then the French are too riled up and the generals refuse to surrender, putting the civilian government in a situation where they are effectively held hostage by the military in Bordeaux or wherever they are evacuated to. The French economy has been significantly damaged by the occupation of everywhere north of Orleans and Macon, but much of their army and the BEF remain. Eventually the Germans are able to close all the Channel ports and the BEF evacuates, causing France to surrender in 1941-42.

A longer war basically cripples Germany's ability to fight the USSR. If it tries, T-34s are in Paris by the end of '43. I doubt even Hitler would attempt such an uneven fight, especially with increasing American aid to Britain. This leads to a long period where Britain fights in North Africa and wins, then fights in Norway and wins, and so on until either the Soviet Union invades Germany or America leads Operation Husky and Operation Overlord. This could possibly lead to an Allied-Soviet war in Iran, however. But I doubt it as that would make invading Europe impossible. More likely is increased British efforts to get Stalin to embargo or invade Germany. Much like how Stalin was very active in getting the British and Americans into opening a second front. I can see Stalin accepting a ton of bribes in order for economic aid against Germany, then once they land in Normandy or wherever, pulling a reverse Barbarossa and eventually getting much more of Europe than historically. No Barbarossa means a Soviet Union with a far more powerful economy than Germany in 1943 and an army that is very much prepared to do battle.
 
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