Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
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If we can find a mechanism to make it work (I'll leave that to others), then the Germans will have been bled dry, which means that Operation Barbarossa, assuming it even happens (unlikely but depressingly possible), will collapse at the Stalin Line.Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit?
Wouldn't Operation Barbarossa be delayed by a year in this scenario?If we can find a mechanism to make it work (I'll leave that to others), then the Germans will have been bled dry, which means that Operation Barbarossa, assuming it even happens (unlikely but depressingly possible), will collapse at the Stalin Line.
Agreed with all of this.OTL it took Germany a year to recover from the battles in the west and realign for an attack east. here the losses will be much higher and if they do Barbarossa it will be in 1942 at the soonest. Also if Germany is fighting in France through the end of 1941 or in to the spring of 1942, German advances in the Balkans, Greece, Crete, as well as supporting any Italian effort in North Africa. Not good for Germany...
The original German expectations was exactly this ATL scenario. And prolonged war in France likely mean the Operation Barbarossa is cancelled outright. Mostly because Greco-Italian war is going to become very tough for Italy. Likely ending in stalemate, or even up to internal collapse of Italy before Germany can intervene. Many of the OTL German allies (most notably Romania and Bulgary) will be very reluctant to initiate fight on German behalf. Therefore, focus of WWII will shift to Italy/Albania/Yugoslavia/Greece region. And at this point Soviet Union may invade German-held parts of Poland..Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
The original German expectations was exactly this ATL scenario. And prolonged war in France likely mean the Operation Barbarossa is cancelled outright. Mostly because Greco-Italian war is going to become very tough for Italy. Likely ending in stalemate, or even up to internal collapse of Italy before Germany can intervene.
Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
What is the condition of Paris?Actually, the more time passes, the more it becomes plausible that Hitler has a pistol-cleaning accident and Germany sues for peace. The long-term slog was exactly what the Allies wanted and planned for. If the German throw of the dice in May 1940 fails - and it might suffice some mishap at some key turning point, say at Eben Emael, for that to happen - the Germans will have expended the better part of their armor. They can build more, but that's also what the French and British are doing. And in defeating that first German attempt, one might hope the French have taken something of their measure, too.
Note Germany is dependent on Romanian and Soviet oil.
The Romanians won't be all that afraid of a Germany that has all of its troops in trenches in Belgium, in Poland staring at the Soviets, and in the Siegfried line, so there won't be a Vienna arbitrate nor exceptionally favorable prices for their oil. The Germans can buy it, at fair trade prices, and the Allies can outbuy them at least in part.
As to the Soviet trade agreement, that was down black on white, but in fact the Soviet deliveries were puny, until Germany won its astounding victory in the West. Then the Soviets felt compelled to start delivering. One wonders if they wouldn't find that there are unforeseen technical difficulties in their deliveries, in TTL; they'll keep promising, naturally.
What you're saying will certainly be true if the front lines become stalled for an extremely long period of time; however, if the Germans keep advancing further into France (even if achieving total victory is a very slow process), Hitler isn't going to get overthrown.Actually, the more time passes, the more it becomes plausible that Hitler has a pistol-cleaning accident and Germany sues for peace. The long-term slog was exactly what the Allies wanted and planned for. If the German throw of the dice in May 1940 fails - and it might suffice some mishap at some key turning point, say at Eben Emael, for that to happen - the Germans will have expended the better part of their armor. They can build more, but that's also what the French and British are doing. And in defeating that first German attempt, one might hope the French have taken something of their measure, too.
Note Germany is dependent on Romanian and Soviet oil.
The Romanians won't be all that afraid of a Germany that has all of its troops in trenches in Belgium, in Poland staring at the Soviets, and in the Siegfried line, so there won't be a Vienna arbitrate nor exceptionally favorable prices for their oil. The Germans can buy it, at fair trade prices, and the Allies can outbuy them at least in part.
As to the Soviet trade agreement, that was down black on white, but in fact the Soviet deliveries were puny, until Germany won its astounding victory in the West. Then the Soviets felt compelled to start delivering. One wonders if they wouldn't find that there are unforeseen technical difficulties in their deliveries, in TTL; they'll keep promising, naturally.
The German invasion of France could turn into a Barbarossa. Paris is surrounded and put under siege like Leningrad. No Battle of the Marne 2.0 in 1940. Hitler would no doubt order the Luftwaffe to blast Paris into rubble. Perhaps the French capital holds out through the winter?What is the condition of Paris?
If the German advance stalls out long enough for it to drag on for 6 months then it's probably going to drag on much longer.Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
Or 2 years is that plausible? How much would the Soviet Union benefit? Would Britain sue for peace?
Even with the six week win the Germans lost 27,000 dead, 111,000 wounded and 18,000 missing along with 1200 aircraft and around 800 tanks. If it took around 30 weeks we can assume that number goes up quite a bit. I think Germany would have to do what they OTL did not do until after Stalingrad, go for total war and mobilise every man for the military.