What if France didn't fall, but the Germans inadvertently sank a US warship or vessel or whatever, and they join the European War?

1. How would the European War turnout to be?

2. How would the European War progress? Will OTL Cold War borders still be the case?

3. How would a Cold War proceed assuming no WWIII breaks out soon afterwards? (Continue from no.2)

4. Would the Soviet Union still collapse even with a more robust economy ITTL?

Now I'm asking this because it's somewhat unneeded for the US to enter the European War if France is still strong. Also, if France doesn't fall, the Germans, as had been established, will not be able to invade Russia if that happens. So, what would happen?
 

Archibald

Banned
Consider the fact that the United States were already delivering a lot of aircrafts to France by June 1940 (DB-7, Martin 167F, Curtiss P-36, and a crapload of trainers) . Now if France doesn't fall, and benefits from Lend Lease (instead of paying in gold reserves) then Germany is screwed up. Also, France wanted to build a tank production plant in Savannah, Georgia, to build more and more SOMUAs.
The bottom line is that thank to USA "arsenal of democracy" France and Great Britain don't need a U.S DOW to Germany to crush the Nazis. They can do it by themselves. Germany won't Barbarossa USSR in 1941 since they will be fighting for their lives on the Western front.
See Pdf27 outstanding "A blunted sickle" to see how Germany could get clusterfucked on the Western front.

Also, the whole Sedan breakthrough on May 12 - 14 1940 was a close thing. Very small butterflies could erase the German bridgehead on the Meuse, then no rush to Abbeville and no Dunkirk pocket to trap the BEF and the best French armies.

My favorite 1940-Sedan POD is Rubarth - see here
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/search/3009652/?q=rubarth&o=date&c[node]=16
The luck of this guy was nearly ASB.
 
Last edited:

GarethC

Donor
1. Read A Blunted Sickle. It's one of the best timelines on this site. Short answer is - Germany loses in 1941 as it is outproduced by Anglo-French industry without ever launching Barbarossa. Italy stays out (as France is not losing).

2. The Soviets will probably not enter the war. Stalin being a cautious chap, it is likely that some form of independent and Entente-backed Poland will result, but with some compromise on pre-1920 borders to avoid a Soviet-Entente war.
With no Fall of France, Japan won't seize French Indochina, so no oil embargo and no Pacific War as such.

3. Europe - Britain, France, The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Poland, maybe some sort of occupied Austria/Bavaria/Hanover/Prussia vs the USSR. Spain/Italy/Portugal sit quietly. Hungary/Romania/Finland are the battleground for a new Great Game (which Stalin will win unless Philby gets run over by a bus).
4-Corner Cold War US/USSR/Japan/Entente over China

4. Maybe, maybe not. Not having 20 million killed is a good thing. However, Stalin may just keep on purging without an existential external threat to unify the nation under him.
 
A slightly improved performance from the French Army in May 1940 basically resulting in the Battle going Frances way or even a stalemate

Perhaps Belgium joins the Wallies earlier allowing regular Line Divisions to reinforce the Belgium army - allowing much of the mobile forces and highly mobile BEF to be kept in reserve and they or parts of those formations can therefore respond to the Breakthrough and contain it.

In 1940 Germany would be hard pressed to sustain a battle of attrition vs the British and French Empires supported by the USA into 1941.

The sinking of the Destroyer Reuben James and the near sinking of the Kearney in 1941 did not bring the US into the war (although lets put this into context the US was about as engaged in WW2 as it was possible to get without an actual declaration of war).

The sinking or heavy damage to something like the USS Texas however, which was IIRC operating in the North Atlantic in 1941 and at one point 'stalked' by U-203 who thought it was a Revenge Class BB and the U-Boat lost contact - a POD here could see the U-boat captain successfully making an attack on the Old 'Mighty T' before realising his mistake

Another scenario is after breaking past the British Blockade Bismarck and Prinz Eugan 'bump' the T in darkness and open fire a close range before she is properly identified (if she is identified) and the ship is lost with many casualties.

A 'Remember the Maine' style press campaign backs a growing popular movement to join the war - happily seized upon by the 'Hawks' and the second Half of 1041 sees the US declaring war.
 
Top