WI:François Achille Bazaine died before the Franco-Prussian War
- Thread starter SPJ
- Start date
Hmm, this has made me wonder. If Prussia convinced the lower German states to unify in OTL by convincing them that France was a potent enemy then perhaps Prussia still could do the same after a drawn out war. Though Prussia wouldn't have the benefit of showing off its might through a quick victory like in OTL but I don't know if this had as much affect on the lower state's officials when it came to unifying. Also Nap III may even die during a drawn out war and then his some may have to take the thrown during war time which could cause other issues. Though what those issues could include I'm not sure of.
wolf_brother
Banned
Napoléon III would likely expire during such a war, he wasn't in the best of health IOTL as is. As well remember that our POD is already after Sedan, so he's already surrendered his person to the Germans (as opposed to his empire; though that's a legal distinction few will pick up on). This technically leaves the empire to Prince Napoléon, whose just a young teen as yet, under a regency by his mother Eugénie. Unfortunately for the imperial cause both of them had fled to England following Sedan. As well, it was the Government of National Defense ITTL that repulsed the Germans (assuming a French victory at Paris). Now, the situation is certainly chaotic enough that things could change if the Prince Imperial returned to France immediately, preferably without his mother, as a) she had plenty of her own enemies but he could be a tabla rasa, and b) he needs to show he's 'his own man.'
As for the Germans, I doubt that the lower German states unify with Prussia's North German Confederation into any sort of imperial arrangement. For one, this war is a draw at best, as opposed to IOTL's quick victory. That's a massive change. As well consider that ITTL it was the Bavarian, Württemberger, Badenish, and Hessian commanders that called for drawing the French out of Paris, or starving the city, as opposed to the Prussian demand for an immediate assault. They will (rightfully) conclude that Bismarck and Wilhelm goaded the French into attacking, and then even more foolishly attempted to storm their own capital with a larger force behind the city walls. These type of things are easily forgiven, or forgotten. Berlin simply doesn't have the prestige among the German states that it did IOTL to pull off bullying the other few remaining German states into itself.
As for the Germans, I doubt that the lower German states unify with Prussia's North German Confederation into any sort of imperial arrangement. For one, this war is a draw at best, as opposed to IOTL's quick victory. That's a massive change. As well consider that ITTL it was the Bavarian, Württemberger, Badenish, and Hessian commanders that called for drawing the French out of Paris, or starving the city, as opposed to the Prussian demand for an immediate assault. They will (rightfully) conclude that Bismarck and Wilhelm goaded the French into attacking, and then even more foolishly attempted to storm their own capital with a larger force behind the city walls. These type of things are easily forgiven, or forgotten. Berlin simply doesn't have the prestige among the German states that it did IOTL to pull off bullying the other few remaining German states into itself.
wolf_brother
Banned
Not necessarily. Again, as I said in the post about the Battle of Paris, a lot will depend on the exact details of the timeline. I'm only giving broad, if informed, strokes here. The Prince Imperial could rally everyone to him, or the Government of National Defense could evolve into a de-facto Third Republic. It could go either way without knowing the particulars.
wolf_brother
Banned
Oh for sure. The French end of the war effort was a long series of missed opportunities and near-victories. The problem for Paris isn't in the war itself though, its in the internal dynamics and politics leading up to the war. The Emperor wasn't a young man and even when he was he was never in the best of health, and it was a well known secret throughout the capital that he had one foot in the grave for years. Combine that with Louis-Napoléon's desire to create a constitutional monarchy à la Britain and a strong clique of monarchist reactionaries that only saw the Bonapartists as a stepping-stone to a second restoration, and by the late 1860s as the Emperor withdrew from the day-to-day running of France the monarchist-dominated Sénat which gutted the French military in order to weaken the Bonapartist regime from within. Competent officers were purged, incompetent ones were promoted, the budget was slashed, and everywhere supplies were limited. The war is certainly winneable, but the odds are stacked against France with a POD after the war has started.