WI: Ford wins re-election in '76, Mondale-Bumpers highly successful from '81-'89

President Mondale appointed Paul Volker to replace Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in late 1982. With inflation still high, Volker raises interest rates to break the back of inflation.
I graduated from high school in June of '81 and had a heck of a hard time finding a decent job.

One of my good friends graduated June '82 and had a heck of a hard time finding a decent job, and around August, joined the U.S. Navy where he served honorably for six years.

So yes, I question what appears to be the conventional wisdom that inflation is more important than unemployment.
 
And sadly, I see us again making the same mistake of supporting the Taliban and the early stages of Al Qaeda.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 1979. It would be hard for any president not to do something. And whoever becomes president a little over a year later on Jan. 20, 1981, it would be hard for them not to continue the policy.

And this is the case even though, yes, we supported a shitload of dictators during the cold war and even put a fair number of them in power. And occasionally, we even proxy supported an invasion of another country.

But all the same, on the part of the Soviet Union, this was a direct invasion of another country.

In addition, it would be hard for us not to use of the angle of religion. The Soviet Union was officially atheistic and hostile to religion, even if there might have been all kinds of interesting exceptions and loosening in practice. So, if an armed group wants to use religious freedom as a major propaganda point against the Soviet Union, heck yeah, more power to you.

About the only out I can think of is this: I think some presidents liked to swim laps. It's kind of a rhythmic, meditative activity. Your mind wanders and sometimes you end up thinking clearer and further than you normally do. If President Mondale also swam laps or did something similar, late one fine afternoon it might occur to him, that while we're all in favor of building bridges among the three great Abrahamic faiths of Judaism, Christianity, Islam, supporting the most extreme armed elements may not the best way to do it. And may not be in our best long term interests, however well or poorly it works for a temporary conflict.

Unlikely a President goes this route, where he essentially advocates just singing Kumbaya and giving the Soviet Union a pass, but maybe there's a better way to frame it. As well as active things we can do, which is important.

So, perhaps outside chance. But in general, I see a similar tragedy as OTL where we again support the early stages of Al Qaeda.
 
Last edited:
So, which moderate Republican runs and wins in 1992? (who perhaps even has previous leadership in the RLC, in efforts to steer the Republicans back to the center!)

Reformer, Governor Carroll Campbell is one of the most probable.

So yes, I question what appears to be the conventional wisdom that inflation is more important than unemployment.

You are entirely correct, but only partially. Inflation above the 3% range is perfectly fine despite post-1970s central banks losing their collective shit over it (hence the conventional wisdom) because banks hate inflation primarily because it hurts lenders, which are banks, and benefits regular people, who don't matter. So moderate inflation is perfectly fine, even good if it keeps more people employed, not that central banks will admit this (especially pre-2008 OTL). Hyper-inflation, on the other hand, is a serious problem which is why central banks are so insane on the inflation issues 1980s-2010s.

That said stagflation of the 1970s and potential hyper-inflation of the early 1980s was a huge problem; they didn't have the tools to properly understand the former and were deathly afraid (re: Weimar) of the latter. So you can understand their attack on working people to save the banks--they are the banks!--but one could easily posit saner solutions than the ones enacted.
 
THE 1980 ELECTION:
Senator Mondale by unifying the liberal base and winning just enough establishment support wins the 1980 Democratic nomination. With double digit inflation, high unemployment, an energy shortage thanks to the Iranian revolutions in 1979, and a divided Republican party, Senator Mondale and his running mate Senator Dale Bumpers of Arkansas defeat Former Governor Ronald Reagan of California and his running mate Congressman John Anderson of Illinois:

Senator Walter F. Mondale (D-MN)/ Senator Dale L. Bumpers (D-ARK) 55.1% PV 491 EV

Fmr. Governor Ronald W. Reagan (R-CA)/ Congressman John B. Anderson (R-IL) 43.9% PV 47 EV

genusmap.php
MONDALE'S FIRST TERM:

President Mondale advocates building up conventional forces in NATO. And with matter-of-fact confidence, he is successful at this. And if anything, this is even more expensive than intermediate-range missiles.

He's more in favor of infrastructure investment than Reagan.

But, and this is a big one, he's not as gung-ho about tax cuts as Reagan. President Mondale keeps the idea in his back pocket of a reduction in tax rates and withholding as a way of putting more consumer dollars into the economy, within a matter of weeks if it quickly gets through Congress, but he perhaps keeps this idea in his back pocket just a bit too long.

Overall, there in less Keynesian priming of the pump under Mondale than under Reagan. The U.S. economy recovers more slowly.

Mondale and Bumpers comfortably win re-election in '84, but not as big as they did in 1980, and nowhere near the landslide of Reagan OTL.
 
Last edited:
Top