WI: Ford-Dole wins in '76, what happens in America?

What would happen if Ford-Dole won the 1976 presidential election in a landslide election victory against Gov. Jimmy Carter and the Republicans pick up the House and Senate?

maz9297a.jpg
 
Last edited:
Ford winning is very plausible--just get 0.14 percent of the voters in OH and 0.85 percent in WI to switch from Carter to Ford. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_presidential_election

Republicans winning the House and Senate?! If the Democrats lost every Senate race in 1976 which they won by ten points or less, they would still have 56 Senate seats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_Senate_elections (And that includes at least one race--NY--where the Democratic candidate won by almost ten points.)

As for the House, not only did the Democrats maintain a large 292-143 lead--surpassing even that of the Watergate year 1974!--but won the popular vote by 13.6 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

The GOP winning Congress in 1976 requires some POD which makes the political situation hugely different from that of OTL. (Even a really terrible Democratic presidential candidate wouldn't do it--voters in those days often split tickets, as is shown by the Democrats retaining control of Congress in 1972 despite McGovern's landslide defeat.)
 
To show just how far-fetched the idea that the GOP could win the House in 1976 was, here from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections is a complete list of the Democrats in 1976 who defeated their Republican opponents by fifteen points or less:

01 AZ-03 Bob Stump (47.5-42.3)
02 CA-04 Robert Leggett (50.2-49.8)
03 CA-16 Leon Panetta (53.4-46.6)
04 CA-34 Mark Hannaford (50.7-49.3)
05 CA-35 James F. Lloyd (53.3-46.7)
06 CO-01 Pat Schroeder (53.2-46.2)
07 CO-02 Timothy Worth (50.5-49.5)
08 CO-03 Frank Evans (51.0-47.0)
09 CT-03 Robert Giaimo (54.4-43.7)
10 CT-06 Toby Moffett (56.6-43.0)
11 GA-06 Jack Flynt (51.7-48.3)
12 GA-07 Larry McDonald (55.1-44.9)
13 HA-01 Cecil Heftel (43.6-39.1)
14 IL-10 Abner Mikva (50.0-50.0)
15 1N-02 Floyd Fithian (54.7-44.5)
16 IN-03 John Brademas (56.9-43.1)
17 IN-06 David Evans (54.9-45.1)
18 IN-08 David Cornwell (50.5-49.5)
19 IA-02 Mike Blouin (50.3-49.1)
20 KS-02 Martha Keys (50.7-47.4)
21 KS-04 Dan Glickman (50.3-48.5)
22 LA-01 Richard Tonry (47.2-43.4)
23 LA-05 Jerry Huckaby (52.5-47.5)
24 MA-04 Robert Drinan (52.1-47.9)
25 MA-06 Michael J. Harrington (54.8-41.3)
26 MI-06 Robert Carr (52.7-46.5)
27 MI-12 David Bonior (52.4-47.2)
28 MO-02 Robert Young (51.1-48.9)
29 MO-04 Ike Skelton (55.9-44.1)
30 MO-09 Haroldd Volkmer (55.9-44.1)
31 NE-02 John Joseph Cavanaugh (54.6-45.4)
32 NJ-07 Andrew Maguire (56.5-43.5)
33 NJ-13 Helen Meyner (50.4-47.9)
34 NJ-14 Joseph LeFante (49.9-45.2)
35 NY-02 Thomas J. Downey (57.1-42.4)
36 NY-03 Jerome Ambro (52.0-46.8)
37 NY-24 Richard Ottinger (54.5-44.3)
38 NY-29 Edward W. Pattison (47.0-45.0)
39 NY-32 James M. Hanley (54.8-44.1)
40 NC-05 Steven L. Neal (54.5-45.6)
41 NC-11 V. Lamar Gudger (50.9-48.1)
42 OH-02 Thomas Luken (51.4-48.6)
43 OH-09 Thomas Ashley (54.2-44.0)
44 OH-19 Charles Carney (50.2-47.9)
45 OK-01 James R. Jones (54.0-45.1)
46 OK-02 Ted Risenhoover (54.0-46.0)
47 OR-04 Jim Weaver (50.0-35.1)
48 PA-07 Robert W. Edgar (54.1-45.9)
49 PA-08 Peter H. Kostmayer (49.5-48.8)
50 PA-17 Allen E. Ertel (50.7-48.5)
51 PA-22 Austin Murphy (55.3-43.9)
52 PA-23 Joseph S. Ammerman (56.5-43.5)
53 SC-05 Kenneth Holland (51.4-48.3)
54 SC-06 John Jenrette (5.5-44.0)
55 TX-05 Jim Mattox (54.0-444.6)
56 TX-11 William R. Poage (57.4-42.6)
57 TX-19 George H. Mahon (54.6-45.4)
58 TX-22 Robert Gaammage (50.1-49.9)
59 VA-08 Herbert Harris (51.6-42.6)
60 WA-02 Lloyd Meeds (49.3-49.0)
61 WI-08 Robert John Cornell (50.9-46.9)
62 WY AL Teno Roncalio (56.4-43.6)

If the Democrats had lost every one of these sixty-two seats (which is pretty unlikely since they won many of them by ten points or more) they would still have 230 seats--twelve more than necessary for a majority!
 
Last edited:
Top