WI: Ford doesn't pardon Nixon?

Two part question here.

1 - What happens to Nixon from a criminal perspective? Does he get indicted, by whom, and what do you think his chances of conviction are? What's the sentence he gets if convicted?

2 - What happens to Ford (and the GOP by extension) politically? Does Carter win in 1976? Does Reagan still get the 1980 GOP nomination if Ford is still President?

Curious to see what you fine folks think. Thanks in advance!
 
The most likely scenario is federal prosecutors indict and convict Nixon, who becomes the first ever U.S. President to go to prison. The evidence against Nixon was public and overwhelming. I don't think Nixon would serve in prison for as long as his political opponents would like; the judge might show mercy on account of Nixon being a former President as well as his prior record of public service. The most reasonable scenario is Nixon is a free man by the early 1980's.

Ford probably wins in 1976 and serves until January 20, 1981. Vice-President Dole runs in 1980, only to lose to whatever Democrat challenges him. There's an outside chance that Reagan beats Dole in the primaries only to lose in November.

In the long run, Nixon's legal punishment serves as a signal to future Presidents not to trample on the Constitution or obstruct justice. Ford's legacy would be less controversial, and depending on how he handles the events of 1977-1980 he might be seen as a decent President. Reagan never comes to power, and maybe not Bush Sr either if he runs in 1984 only to lose to a popular incumbent. Dole might be able to make a comeback if he runs for Governor of Kansas or the U.S. Senate again - setting him up for a run in 1988 in an ironic repeat of Nixon.
 
I suspect this may haunt also the Republicans in their party for a while and may cause more bitterness between sides for a while
 
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