Following a string of victories against the Ottomans, the Serbian insurgents sent Petar Ičko as their envoy to the Sublime Porte. Following some negotiations, Ičko managed to convince them to give the Serbs some favorable concessions, which we know as Ičko's Peace. However, the Russians convinced the Serbs to reject the treaty and continue the Uprising, whilst joining the former in their war against the Ottomans.

A few years into the war, the Russians were only giving them some token support, as the Serbs mainly served to occupy the Ottomans while they fought in Moldavia. Eventually, the Serbs would lose initiative in the war with the loss at the Battle of Čegar, as a result of Petar Dobrnjac and Miloje Petrović entering in a strife, leading to them being unable to support Stevan Sinđelić and his men in the battle.

Now: 1) what if the Serbs chose to go with Ičko's Peace rather than allying with Russia; 2) if they chose to ally with Russia, what if Petar Dobrnjac and Miloje Petrović hadn't entered in a strife, leading to a victory at the Battle of Čegar?
 
Ičko's peace would have been a diplomatic victory for France and the Ottomans, to some extent. But it might also accidentally benefit Russia; if Russia decides on a more defensive stance in the coming Ottoman-Russian war, it could concentrate more on the war against Napoleon and do better in the War of the Fourth Coalition. Then again, this would also allow the Ottomans to concentrate a bit more on Russia.

Selim III probably still gets deposed by the conservative faction. The progress of the Serbian uprising was only one of his many problems and far from the core of Ottoman internal conflicts.

Serbia would be better off in many ways. It avoids the murders and devastation caused by Janissaries after the uprising was defeated in OTL; gets only one dynasty (Karađorđević), avoiding the problems caused by the Obrenović and their mutual rivalry; and starts its state development over a decade earlier.

On the other hand, expanding Serbia's autonomy and getting the Ottomans to fully uphold the treaty will be hard and slow. Probably a diplomatic and bureaucratic nightmare lasting for decades. And the Russian government will be annoyed and far less helpful with the Serbs for the next few years.
 
Another thing we should note is that, unlike Miloš' Serbia, which had to wait at least 15 years before it could receive the autonomy promised in Ičko's Peace, this Serbia would have it right from the get-go. While it is true that getting the Ottomans to uphold the treaty will be hard and slow, we must also remember that, while the Ottomans are fighting the Russians, the Serbs are mending to themselves, preparing themselves if the Porte tries anything. In fact, a tired Ottoman Empire, combined with an occupied Napoleon, might benefit the rested Serbs greatly. Heck, if Karađorđe used the same techniques Miloš used to get rich (which was by abusing the fact that the documents used for paying the yearly tax to the Porte were out of date, not accounting for the population growth, meaning he was able to collect the taxes as usual and just send the amount asked for in the documents, keeping the rest for himself), he'd be known as the richest man in Serbia and one of the richest in the Balkanshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkans.

Also, amusingly, if Ičko's Peace had been adopted, we might know Miloš Obrenović as Miloš Teodorović, as his more famed half-brother, Milan Obrenović wouldn't have died in 1810, meaning Miloš more than likely wouldn't have fully switched to the surname Obrenović after his death.
 
I've always found this an interesting PoD as well. From what I've read, Serbia was really wrecked by the invasion that followed the rejection of the treaty.

At least initially, it would result in a more Hapsburg-oriented Serbia. The suppression of the uprising in OTL destroyed the last of the institutions and organizational memory left in Serbia from the brief period of Hapsburg rule almost 70 years before. So without the suppression, we might see military links between Serbia and the Hapsburg domains maintaining - even strengthening the Austrian-ness of the Serbian autonomous region. With Russia being upset at the Serbs, I imagine a pro-Hapsburg policy would be the only realistic way to get foreign backing as well.

I wonder what relations with the Turks would be like? A constituent part of the Empire with its own military trained and equipped to European standards could change all sorts of things in interesting ways, much as an autonomous Egypt with its own fleet and army changed things.

I once had an idea for a TL where Selim III, due to resistance to his military reforms by the Janessaries, turns to autonomous Serbia as a source for a modern army. The idea was that the Serbs would evolve into a military caste within the empire that would slowly absorb the other south slavic peoples as the army expanded. Coupled with the more rapid economic development and population growth of the Balkan part of the Empire, this would eventually lead to the Ottoman state becoming transformed from within into a Slavic state with the army, the middle classes and the emerging capitalist and working classes, being dominated by Slavic-speaking Christians and Muslims.

Rather unlikely, to be sure, but it's a fun concept.

fasquardon
 
I once had an idea for a TL where Selim III, due to resistance to his military reforms by the Janessaries, turns to autonomous Serbia as a source for a modern army. The idea was that the Serbs would evolve into a military caste within the empire that would slowly absorb the other south slavic peoples as the army expanded. Coupled with the more rapid economic development and population growth of the Balkan part of the Empire, this would eventually lead to the Ottoman state becoming transformed from within into a Slavic state with the army, the middle classes and the emerging capitalist and working classes, being dominated by Slavic-speaking Christians and Muslims.

It's an interesting idea. And there was actually a similar plan floating around a few years before Selim III's reign (in 1774, I think); made by count Waldemar Schmettau, a German general in the Danish army. He proposed that the Ottomans should grant autonomy to Serbia and give its throne to Schmettau himself (he claimed to be related to one of Serbia's medieval dynasties). In exchange, he promised to create a modern and well-equipped army of local Christians which would defend the territory of Serbia; provide artillery, engineers and elite infantry; and act as a driving force for the Ottoman army's own modernization.

I wonder if a successful conclusion of 'Ičko's peace' would lead the Ottomans to expand the pre-1800 reforms from central Serbia to southern Greece or some other provinces. Probably depends on whether the lesson taken away by the Ottomans is "pro-Christian reforms almost worked great" or "pro-Christian reforms almost destroyed Imperial authority".
 
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I've always found this an interesting PoD as well. From what I've read, Serbia was really wrecked by the invasion that followed the rejection of the treaty.

It was quite the invasion - leading to many of the leaders of the first uprising to abandon the country, including Karađorđe himself. Between the end of the first uprising and the beginning of the second, there was a rule of terror essentially, which would lead to the second uprising. Ironically, if the Turks didn't do that and instead moved towards getting the Serbs more integrated, maybe we wouldn't have seen the second uprising as soon.

At least initially, it would result in a more Hapsburg-oriented Serbia. The suppression of the uprising in OTL destroyed the last of the institutions and organizational memory left in Serbia from the brief period of Hapsburg rule almost 70 years before. So without the suppression, we might see military links between Serbia and the Hapsburg domains maintaining - even strengthening the Austrian-ness of the Serbian autonomous region. With Russia being upset at the Serbs, I imagine a pro-Hapsburg policy would be the only realistic way to get foreign backing as well.

A more Habsburg-oriented Serbia makes sense. IOTL, Milan Obrenović aligned his foreign policy with that of the Habsburgs in exchange for their support for his elevation to king. However, I feel as though there is another country that could potentially back the Serbs - the British. With the more successful revolution, the Greeks might become more eager to revolt themselves and, after everything with Napoleon is said and done, the British could possibly ask the Serbs to join in and help their Orthodox brothers, as well as possibly expand into Bosnia, Southern Serbia and Macedonia. Karađorđe would very surely accept such an offer, as he was less of a administrative leader and more of a military one. Heck, they might offer the Greek throne to one of the Serbian revolutionary leaders.

However, we could also potentially see Karađorđe overthrown in a rebellion, akin to how Mihailo Obrenović was overthrown by Toma Vučić-Perišić's rebellion, for his less than stellar administrative rule. We might see a republican Serbia form under the rule of the "Defenders of the Constitution", though it is far more likely either that one of the more administrative-ept revolutionaries becomes prince, or the Defenders establishing a dictatorship akin to either the Romans or the French. Though, if any of this happens, we might also see Karađorđe return to power through a similar event to the Assembly of Saint Andrew, or "Svetoandrejska skupština".
 
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It's an interesting idea. And there was actually a similar plan floating around a few years before Selim III's reign (in 1774, I think); made by count Waldemar Schmettau, a German general in the Danish army. He proposed that the Ottomans should grant autonomy to Serbia and give its throne to Schmettau himself (he claimed to be related to one of Serbia's medieval dynasties). In exchange, he promised to create a modern and well-equipped army of local Christians which would defend the territory of Serbia; provide artillery, engineers and elite infantry; and act as a driving force for the Ottoman army's own modernization.

I wonder if a successful conclusion of 'Ičko's peace' would lead the Ottomans to expand the pre-1800 reforms from central Serbia to southern Greece or some other provinces. Probably depends on whether the lesson taken away by the Ottomans is "pro-Christian reforms almost worked great" or "pro-Christian reforms almost destroyed Imperial authority".

Now that is interesting! Do you have any idea if Schmettau's offer received any serious consideration? (I would have thought not, unless the man had a considerable reputation at the time.)

IOTL, Milan Obrenović aligned his foreign policy with that of the Habsburgs in exchange for their support for his elevation to king. However, I feel as though there is another country that could potentially back the Serbs - the British. With the more successful revolution, the Greeks might become more eager to revolt themselves and, after everything with Napoleon is said and done, the British could possibly ask the Serbs to join in and help their Orthodox brothers, as well as possibly expand into Bosnia, Southern Serbia and Macedonia. Karađorđe would very surely accept such an offer, as he was less of a administrative leader and more of a military one. Heck, they might offer the Greek throne to one of the Serbian revolutionary leaders.

An Orthodox Greaco-Serbian empire taking over the Balkans would make for a fun TL.

I don't think it is terribly likely though. For one, Greece is a long way from Serbia, and Serbia was still landlocked at this point.

Perhaps if the Danubian revolt of Alexander Ypsilantis saw more success, we might see the Serbs linking up with the rebels in Moldavia and Wallachia and then with the rebels in Greece?

I don't think Britain would be a friend of Serbia until the Serbs manage to expand. Britain doesn't have much use for being friendly with a little Serbia.

fasquardon
 
Now that is interesting! Do you have any idea if Schmettau's offer received any serious consideration? (I would have thought not, unless the man had a considerable reputation at the time.)

I don't think so either. Schmettau submitted his plan to the French government and counted on them to back it up, but France was soon distracted by the American War of Independence. Maybe he would have gone further if he had proposed it to the Porte itself. Then again, maybe not - Count Schmettau seems to have been popular only on a local level, as a successful army reformer in Denmark/Norway.
 
I don't think so either. Schmettau submitted his plan to the French government and counted on them to back it up, but France was soon distracted by the American War of Independence. Maybe he would have gone further if he had proposed it to the Porte itself. Then again, maybe not - Count Schmettau seems to have been popular only on a local level, as a successful army reformer in Denmark/Norway.

Hmm. The whole thing reminds me of Orélie-Antoine de Tounens' attempt to create a Patagonian kingdom. Makes me wonder if Schmettau could be made a king of some Native American kingdom during the ARW...

fasquardon
 
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