WI: First Serbian Uprising without Russian support

Damian0358

As early as a month into the uprising against the Dahije that terrorized the Sanjak of Smederevo, the leaders (or vođa) of the First Serbian Uprising realized that, in order to fully guarantee that things would be returned to how they once were from 1793 to 1799/1801, they would need international support.

After failing to receive Austrian support (as they had been tired out by recent wars and were attempting to avoid any sort of war with the Sublime Porte), they considered looking for support from the Russians, a decision confirmed at the Assembly in Ostružnica in May of 1804. As establishing a direct contact with St. Petersburg seemed impossible, they instead opted to send a letter to the Russian Ambassador in Constantinople, Graf Andrej Jakovlevitch Italinski, asking for support from the Russian throne.

While the letter was being delivered, an important figure arrived in Serbia sometime in July, that is Petar Novaković Čardaklija. Having previously been a captain of the Serbian Free Corps during the last Austro-Turkish War, and after the war having established close connections within the aristocratic circles of Vienna and Buda (most importantly his wife being close with Grand Duchess Alexandra Pavlovna, sister of then-Russian Tsar Alexander I), he assured Karađorđe (who had been chosen to lead the uprising at the Assembly at Orašac) that they wouldn't achieve anything with the letter sent to Constantinople, and advised him to instead send a Serbian delegation to St. Petersburg.

Karađorđe was persuaded by Čardaklija, and, after preparations were made, a delegation consisting of diplomat prota Mateja Nenadović, merchant Jovan Protić and the aforementioned Čardaklija departed by boat in complete secrecy at night on the 13th of September. They would arrive in St. Petersburg on the 7th of November, having met up with Teodor Filipović, who was at the time a professor at the University of Kharkiv, on the way, who would act as a translator.

Then-Russian Foreign Minister, Adam Czartoryski, would end up accepting them, and after reading one of the memorandums they had, was inclined to immediately inform the Imperator on the delegation's arrival. He would give the Serbs his political and financial support, having his finance minister grant the revolutionaries 3000 ducats in gold, and the delegates 300 ducats each, though he was unable to grant them any military support at the time.

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With the given context on how the Serbs managed to obtain Russian support, what if they hadn't?

Karađorđe was not always the best at diplomacy, and it is quite possible that he could've stubbornly refused Čardaklija's advice and remained steadfast with the decision made in May. Of course, Čardaklija could try and find supporters among the other leaders, and as the Serbs traditionally saw the Russians as close friends due to their Slavic Orthodox nature, as well as how their state served as an a beacon of hope that they could achieve the same sort of success, he was likely to find those who liked the idea. Of course, if he used peer pressure on Karađorđe, that could make him fold or just even more resistant.

Assuming Čardaklija fails to persuade Karađorđe, and the letter failed to do anything (seeing as I'm unable to find any info on it past it being sent, so we could assume it was either discovered or just seen as unimportant by Italinski, considering the political climate), whom would they look to for support?

Napoleon had been given the title of Emperor by the French Senate in May of 1804 as well, later coronated in December, and the War of the Third Coalition would only begin the following year, so the French would not have interest in the Balkans at this time. Everyone else was unlikely to support them, so it is likely that, at least for the time being, they would have to fight without foreign support, which may dampen morale.
 

Halagaz

The Serbian Uprising started and fought without foreign assistance from early 1804 to late 1806 (except for some support from Wallachia). Only with the outbreak of Russo-Turkish hostilities in late 1806 did they get Russia's support.

(IIRC, Russia politely rejected the delegation in 1804 and basically told them to negotiate with the Ottoman Sultan. The ambassador Italinsky's hands were tied by the need to re-negotiate the Russian-Ottoman alliance created in 1799, and he couldn't give the Serbs even the symbolic assistance he was supposed to.)

So what happens if Russia doesn't start supporting the uprising? Most likely, Ičko's Peace is accepted. The Serbian uprising ends in 1807. Serbia is established as an autonomous state under Ottoman overlordship. However, since the Sultan planned to partially betray the treaty, the end result wouldn't be as good. Most likely: Serbia's autonomy is reduced from the original draft of the treaty, and ends up lesser than e.g. Wallachia's autonomy. Some of the Serbian leaders are murdered or exiled, and a Greek Phanariote (Soutzos) is placed on the throne of Serbia, in accordance with French suggestions.
 

Damian0358

Halagaz said:
The Serbian Uprising started and fought without foreign assistance from early 1804 to late 1806 (except for some support from Wallachia). Only with the outbreak of Russo-Turkish hostilities in late 1806 did they get Russia's support.

(IIRC, Russia politely rejected the delegation in 1804 and basically told them to negotiate with the Ottoman Sultan. The ambassador Italinsky's hands were tied by the need to re-negotiate the Russian-Ottoman alliance created in 1799, and he couldn't give the Serbs even the symbolic assistance he was supposed to.)
Click to expand...

Very true when it comes to having mostly fought without foreign assistance, though I'd have to disagree with the notion that they politely rejected the delegation, considering Alexander I's decision to have his finance minister grant the Serbs roughly 5000 ducats in gold. Unless you mean the rest of the Committee of Ministers with the Imperator absent.

The Russian-Ottoman alliance, among other things, was what I was referring to when speaking of the political climate, and why Alexander I couldn't give any military support at the time.

Halagaz said:
So what happens if Russia doesn't start supporting the uprising? Most likely, Ičko's Peace is accepted. The Serbian uprising ends in 1807. Serbia is established as an autonomous state under Ottoman overlordship. However, since the Sultan planned to partially betray the treaty, the end result wouldn't be as good. Most likely: Serbia's autonomy is reduced from the original draft of the treaty, and ends up lesser than e.g. Wallachia's autonomy. Some of the Serbian leaders are murdered or exiled, and a Greek Phanariote (Soutzos) is placed on the throne of Serbia, in accordance with French suggestions.
Click to expand...

I don't think the end result would be nearly as grim as you suggest it to be. With the uprising ending in 1807, many of the veterans that passed away post-1807, such as Hajduk Veljko, Milan Obrenović, and more, would still be alive, and eagerly making sure defenses were good. And while the Sultan intended to partially betray the treaty, unless butterflies affect this, Selim III would still be overthrown in 1807 and pass away sometime in 1808, especially if the Russo-Turkish War occurs when it does, thus delaying whatever plans the Sublime Porte had in store for the autonomous Serbs (not to mention that butterflies may even result in the death of Mahmud if Mustafa's guards manage to find him).

Butterflies in general could very much alter how things occur. Without Russian support, we don't just have potentially decreased morale, but those aforementioned ducats would not be in the hands of the Serbs, which may somewhat limit the procurement of things such as firearms and equipment, as well as payment, but not overtly affect the general progress of the uprising. Čardaklija, after failing to convince Karađorđe, may later, upon seeing the writing on the wall, attempt to organize a delegation following Austerlitz to the French, as he was among those interested in full independence rather than just autonomy, but the delegation would probably fail to get French support.

Assuming the Russo-Turkish War occurs when it does, the Russians may attempt to convince the Serbs, now post-Ičko's Peace, to join them in the war and attempt independence, probably sending Konstantin Rodofinikin as their representative as OTL. As there would probably be a pro-independence faction, possibly even led by Čardaklija, they'd probably warmly accept him once he arrived in Belgrade, before the initial meeting with Karađorđe from OTL repeats. While he wouldn't be furious at the Russians for having to abandon Serbia post-Tilsit TTL, he wouldn't be pleased at the fact that they sent a Greek as their representative, as he had an aversion towards Greek priests due to the abolishment of the Patriarchate of Peć resulting in many of them taking positions within the Serbian Orthodox Church. However, unlike OTL, I don't see their relationship recovering at all, resulting in Rodofinikin returning to Russia and giving the pro-independence faction a lynchpin.

It's possible that the pro-independence faction, perhaps at the next Assembly, along with some of Karađorđe's opposition, would publicly accuse him of not knowing what the people want, which he'd claimed was true independence, in an apparent repeat of Teodosije Maričević's accusations of tyranny from 1804/05, which ended with him first being shot in his left shoulder after pointing (but not firing) his gun at Karađorđe, and second, after he started throwing accusations towards Karađorđe a bit after, being shot in the stomach after agreeing to a public gun duel, passing away a few weeks later. Considering we'd have a greater semi-organized opposition, unlike Maričević who vocally stood alone, it could end in a multitude of ways - Čardaklija is shot and subsequently dies (he lived until 1808 OTL), fracturing the opposition for now while simultaneously frustrating the Praviteljstvujušči Sovjet further (as they had been in conflict with Karađorđe, attempting to counter his attempts at granting himself more power), which could lend itself to something later; Karađorđe succumbs to pressure and steps down, with one of the other vođa taking the leadership role by vote; Karađorđe is shot and mortally wounded, causing minor chaos within the autonomous state; the Assembly enters a stalemate or even an outright brawl; the faction coups the government, somewhat akin to the OTL Defenders of the Constitution, etc.

Speaking of the Praviteljstvujušči Sovjet (Administering Soviet or Governing/Ruling Council), the constitutional drafts the Russians proposed to the Serbs (the convention proposed by marquis Philip Paulucci in 1807, which failed, and the draft proposed by Rodofinikin the same year, which also failed, and the advice proposed by Rodofinikin and field marshal Prozorovsky in 1808, which were rejected and prompted Ivan Jugović and Mladen Milovanović to write up their own constitutional reform, which among other things made Karađorđe "predvoditelj", strengthening his power and ensuring inheritance) have been butterflied away, which likely impacts the developments seen post-1807, especially considering how the most familiar form of the revolutionary government to the Anglosphere is the one after the reforms of 1811, which made Karađorđe "Grand Vožd".
 
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