WI - First Serbian Revolt succeeds

Broadly, the idea is Delayed Napoleonic invasion of Russia leads to a successful first Serbian revolt.

Broad European effects of Napoleons invasion of Russia being delayed by a year?
Thoughts on if the First Serbian revolt succeeded?

I've become interested in the possibility of the First Serbian Uprising succeeding. Not Ičko's peace but a more extensive victory. I intend to make at least one map, and see if I get inspired to do more.

I was considering the dual POD of Petar Dobrnjac and Miloje Petrović not getting into an argument leading to a victory at Čegar and Napoleon getting sick before the invasion of Russia and delaying it in order to lead it personally when he recovered, allowing Russia to continue splitting Ottoman resources. The latter could have big implications for Europe, though, which is why I wanted some feedback on.

I do have more ideas for Serbia, obviously, but help there would also be appreciated.

I figure that Karađorđe's plan for a joint offensive in Raška, Zeta, and Kosovo with Montenegro might be more enticing to the Prince-Bishop, this could also help Karađorđe with his goal of getting sea access via an expanded Montenegro. I do still picture Serbia as an autonomous vassal state within the Ottoman empire post-peace, as this is what the Russians were pushing. Early autonomy, no struggle between 2 dynasties, and potentially sea access all give Serbia big advantages, not to mention that both in terms of time and territory, Serbia has a big headstart in liberating/expanding into the nearby lands it was interested in, including Bosnia, and its Austrian-drilled military elite isn't wiped out and scattered like IOTL, leaving its army more prepared for modernization. No retribution post revolt by the janissaries also likely means a much better economic situation. Generally, a better start to Serbia's renewed statehood.

I am a bit unsure of how much bigger than IOTL exactly it makes sense for this alternate Serbian principality to be? I don't want this to be some crazy unrealistic wank for nationalists to, well, wank to. More of a realistic light wank.

Relations with the Habsburgs are something I'm wondering about, whether Karađorđe's absolutist and militaristic/"running the country like an army" tendencies might get him ousted and result in a Serbian republic.

I've also toyed with the idea of Slavonic Serbian winning out over Vukian Serbian, with the interesting side effect of modern Croatian and Serbian ACTUALLY being different languages ITTL.
 
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Hmm the changes are to big to imagine one bigger changes i see Vuk Karadžić not rising to importance as he did in otl.And for relations whit Habsburgs i think they might support militaristic Serbia as long its aimed at Turks,other change i see that this might inspire other revolts!
 
Hmm the changes are to big to imagine
Thanks for the reply. Yes of course, we can't predict with great certainty, but at the very least rough ideas.

one bigger changes i see Vuk Karadžić not rising to importance as he did in otl.
Yes it is possible, I believe I mentioned it in the original post.

And for relations whit Habsburgs i think they might support militaristic Serbia as long its aimed at Turks
What makes you think that?

other change i see that this might inspire other revolts!
Yes indeed. In fact, if I remember correctly, Karađorđe was on good terms with Greek revolutionaries later in life too, and even IOTL with the Ottoman empire weakened, the Greek war of independence came soon, so I can see Serbia being an inspiration for and big help in the Greek revolution in a world where it gained independence first.
 
What makes you think that?
First reason i see due butterflies of later Napoleon invasion who knows how would that change the Austrian Empire,Second reason i see they are not in best relationship whit Ottomans,thrid reason they might take Serbia in their own sphere of influence from Russians and last if said regime is not fully popular in Serbia supporting it might keep Serbia divided and more easy to control
Edit:They might be to busy post Napoleon era to bother whit Serbia do this un-likely
 
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So from what I understand this alt-Principality of Serbia will be bigger than OTL's, including Nis and so on? I know next to nothing about its politics, but I wonder if the Serbs could do some shenanigans in 1848 or the Crimean War.
 
What makes you think that?
Historically they did encourage 19th century Serbian irredentism directed towards the south with the aim of keeping their interests away from Bosnia which the Habsburgs wanted for themselves, and further directed their attention to lands where Serbs used to live (Kosovo and Macedonia) rather than the areas where the Habsburgs had allowed Serbian refugees to settle during the Great Migrations of the Serbs.
 
Historically they did encourage 19th century Serbian irredentism directed towards the south with the aim of keeping their interests away from Bosnia which the Habsburgs wanted for themselves, and further directed their attention to lands where Serbs used to live (Kosovo and Macedonia) rather than the areas where the Habsburgs had allowed Serbian refugees to settle during the Great Migrations of the Serbs.
Ah. Since I kind of "specialize" in the middle ages when it comes to the Balkans, I was unaware of this. Glad you pointed it out. I know Serbia had austrophile rulers at various points post independence but I didn't know what the Habsburgs themselves wanted the Serbs to do, other than oppose Russia. I know the Austrians were big advocates AGAINST the conquest of northern Albania in the first Balkan war. Was that because they saw Serbia as too far gone into the Russian sphere by then, especially with the black hand coup against the relatively more austrophilic house of Obrenović?

Without the Russians abandoning them in 1812, do you think the Serbs would be less inclined towards Austrophilia? Or would Karađorđe's service in the Austrian army (and those of the other Vojvode), and Karađorđe never being arrested in Austria, balance that out and still make it an even fight betwen Austrophilia and Russophilia?

If Serbia kept the west bank of the Drina, that could lead to a spicy situation with Austria.

So from what I understand this alt-Principality of Serbia will be bigger than OTL's, including Nis and so on?

Yes. I'm not 100% sure how big I expect it to be but certainly bigger. IOTL Karađorđe had occupied the territoris of the initial OTL principality, as well as areas that the principality would gain before its elevation to a kingdom like Serbian Podrinje, Niš, and Negotin, and even lands beyond that like the Bosnian bank of the Drina, parts of Bulgaria, and Raška/Sandžak including parts that are today in Montenegro. And, of course, ITTL, I expect that Karađorđe would undertake the planned campaign with Montenegro to try and join the two. I'm not sure how much he'd keep in the peace though. I imagine he would push for a land corridor to Montenegro and some kind of sea access for the then-tiny Montenegro that Serbia could also use. Anyway, yeah, bigger.

This map shows OTL Serbia during the 1st revolt at its peak over modern borders

1676690498514.png


I know next to nothing about its politics, but I wonder if the Serbs could do some shenanigans in 1848 or the Crimean War.

The Crimean war depends a lot on whether it aligns more with Russia or with Austria. IOTL Greece fought alongside Russia, I believe it was taking advantage of the situation to expand into Turkish land. I can certainly imagine Serbia doing something similar if it is aligned with Russia, but not if Austria is fighting in the Crimean war and Serbia is aligned with it.

As for 1848, IOTL, the Serbs in Vojvodina revolted in opposition to Hungarian separatism, and demanded their autonomy within Austria in this period. Serbia didn't officially involve itself, though volunteers from Serbia went in. ITTL, depending on Serbia's position in 1848, I can maybe see Serbia offering to help Austria put down the Hungarian rebellion in exchange for Serb rights in Austrian Vojvodina. Or perhaps something else.
 
I know the Austrians were big advocates AGAINST the conquest of northern Albania in the first Balkan war. Was that because they saw Serbia as too far gone into the Russian sphere by then, especially with the black hand coup against the relatively more austrophilic house of Obrenović?
Yes, the coup against the Obrenvic caused relations to nosedive directly into hell. By the Balkan Wars Vienna's policy was entirely one of containment. Further, in the specific case of Northern Albania, Austria and Italy both wanted the Catholic communities in Northern Albania included in Albania rather than Serbia (one of the few things they agreed on).
 
But lets not forget that Napoleon has delaying his invasion of Russia and such his invasion might go differently then did in otl as he might not suffer as much he did from Russian winter,this alone might change the way Austria,France and Russia behave toward newly free Serbia
 
But lets not forget that Napoleon has delaying his invasion of Russia and such his invasion might go differently then did in otl as he might not suffer as much he did from Russian winter,this alone might change the way Austria,France and Russia behave toward newly free Serbia
Very true. The interplay between the great powers is why figuring out the effects of a delayed invasion is such a big deal.
 
Interested what this would mean for the 1806-1812 War in general. Without a rushed peace, Russia might have been able to create a protectorate over Romania sooner, as well as create a larger Serb principality
 
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So from what I understand this alt-Principality of Serbia will be bigger than OTL's, including Nis and so on? I know next to nothing about its politics, but I wonder if the Serbs could do some shenanigans in 1848 or the Crimean War.
I don’t think they ever took Nis, from what I remember they tried and lost at Cegar (which is where the tower of skulls come from).
 
I don’t think they ever took Nis, from what I remember they tried and lost at Cegar (which is where the tower of skulls come from).
Yes, I believe they only occupied the surrounding countryside, but, remember, one of the 2 PODs is a victory at Čegar, so I'd say vinization's idea vis a vis territory is valid.
 
This is a topic that greatly interested in me last time I was active on this forum (...which was like 4 years ago lol). So congratulations for bringing me out of hiding, I guess :_P

With regards to the Battle of Čegar, it's worth remembering that the Niš front of the war was a sideshow for both the Serbs and the Ottomans. The commanders of both sides saw it, essentially, as a way to keep troops tied down from fronts that were considered more important (the advance towards Montenegro, and the Vidin front).

So if the Serbs win at Čegar (or even just withdraw in a normal manner, instead of having to deal with Sinđelić's brain-dead heroics), the first major changes would be less around Niš itself, and more on other fronts. Instead, the Serbian rebel armies finish their offensive towards Novi Pazar/Kosovo and establish a permanent link with the highland clans and the Prince-Bishop of Montenegro.

So Bosnia is severed from the rest of Ottoman territory and can't get supplies or link up with other Ottoman armies. While the Serbian rebels can't just take Bosnia outright, this still puts the Ottomans in Bosnia and the Bosnian muslim captains in a crisis situation. What I think would happen is that the Serbs take some eastern fringes of Bosnia as in OTL. Meanwhile, Austrian or French armies try to roll into the rest of Bosnia and establish a "benevolent" protectorate to prevent it from falling into Serbian (and more importantly Russian) hands. This could go smoothly, or it could not - I definitely see some of the Bosniak captains rebelling against the European encroachment.

However, the whole Bosnia situation takes a back seat to something else: a succesful link-up between the Serbian rebels and Montenegro means that a Russian army can march down to the Adriatic sea and appear in Napoleon's "Illyrian Provinces" whenever it pleases. This could have some interesting consequences for European diplomacy, and European wars, in the next year or two...
 
On some other questions you asked:
  • I agree that this is a great scenario for Serbia. Serbia gets political stability (only one dynasty), a 20 years head-start at state-building...avoids the demographic and economic catastrophe of 1813 where a huge part of the population was uprooted by Ottoman murders and reprisals...keeps its uprising-era military elite and institutions...

    But I think the scenario also gives Romania an early shot at independence. Greece is also interesting - assuming the Greek revolution starts more or less as in OTL, there could be a huge flow of weapons and volunteers from Karadjordje's Serbia to the Greek rebels. And there were many Greeks who fought in the Serbian revolutionary army as soldiers and officers, and who would be eager to establish links with their homeland and assist the process.

  • So what would the territory of this alt-Serbia look like? In say 1820? It's hard to say...in the end it will be great power diplomacy drawing the lines, and anyone's wishes - or military successes - will be secondary factors. But if we're taking the 1809 offensive as a PoD, I think the result might look something like this:
    1677119363993.png

    Serbia is an autonomous state under the nominal sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire and under Russian influence. Central Bosnia is also an autonomous state, probably Muslim-dominated, and probably under Austrian influence.

  • Political and economic development: well this has the same base conditions as OTL's Serbia - feudalism is abolished and you get a country of free peasant smallholders with a verrry gradual development of industry. But here it would develop much faster due to greater resources, possible sea access and a better head-start all around. (Interestingly, revolutionary Serbia - the one from 1804-1813, which survives in this timeline - placed a much greater priority on developing public education than Obrenovic's government would in OTL.)

    Proximity to the Adriatic sea also means less economic dependence on Austria and less getting blackmailed by Austria on various issues. In terms of foreign relations, Russia's influence would be huge and much more decisive than it was in OTL - unless Russia gets slapped around in one of the wars against Napoleon later. Then it's anyone's game.
 
This is a topic that greatly interested in me last time I was active on this forum (...which was like 4 years ago lol). So congratulations for bringing me out of hiding, I guess :_P
Glad to see someone into the topic. I imagine you're from Serbia, based on your bio saying you're from Moesia Superior and the fact that, let's be real, only a Serb would care about such a POD.
With regards to the Battle of Čegar, it's worth remembering that the Niš front of the war was a sideshow for both the Serbs and the Ottomans. The commanders of both sides saw it, essentially, as a way to keep troops tied down from fronts that were considered more important (the advance towards Montenegro, and the Vidin front).
So if the Serbs win at Čegar (or even just withdraw in a normal manner, instead of having to deal with Sinđelić's brain-dead heroics), the first major changes would be less around Niš itself, and more on other fronts. Instead, the Serbian rebel armies finish their offensive towards Novi Pazar/Kosovo and establish a permanent link with the highland clans and the Prince-Bishop of Montenegro.

So Bosnia is severed from the rest of Ottoman territory and can't get supplies or link up with other Ottoman armies. While the Serbian rebels can't just take Bosnia outright, this still puts the Ottomans in Bosnia and the Bosnian muslim captains in a crisis situation. What I think would happen is that the Serbs take some eastern fringes of Bosnia as in OTL. Meanwhile, Austrian or French armies try to roll into the rest of Bosnia and establish a "benevolent" protectorate to prevent it from falling into Serbian (and more importantly Russian) hands. This could go smoothly, or it could not - I definitely see some of the Bosniak captains rebelling against the European encroachment.
Yes yes, I also figured that this would lead to a Serbian-Montenegrin joint offensive in Raška and was thinking about a Serbian Vidin. The big question in my mind is, would the Ottomans allow a connection with Montenegro in the peace treaty, or, really, I know they'd want to prevent it, but would they be in a position to stop it since I know they were in a rather shaky position generally at the time.

However, the whole Bosnia situation takes a back seat to something else: a succesful link-up between the Serbian rebels and Montenegro means that a Russian army can march down to the Adriatic sea and appear in Napoleon's "Illyrian Provinces" whenever it pleases. This could have some interesting consequences for European diplomacy, and European wars, in the next year or two...
Indeed. Shit, with Napoleon falling ill, I could see Russia, which to my knowledge was aware that he planned to invade, might start the war of the 6th coalition OFFENSIVELY: I hadn't really considered Russians popping up to besiege French Ragusa or Cataro or something, but it is certainly a possibility too. Overall, I think that, come the end of the Napoleonic wars, Russia will be in a far better bargaining position.
On some other questions you asked:
  • I agree that this is a great scenario for Serbia. Serbia gets political stability (only one dynasty), a 20 years head-start at state-building...avoids the demographic and economic catastrophe of 1813 where a huge part of the population was uprooted by Ottoman murders and reprisals...keeps its uprising-era military elite and institutions...

    But I think the scenario also gives Romania an early shot at independence. Greece is also interesting - assuming the Greek revolution starts more or less as in OTL, there could be a huge flow of weapons and volunteers from Karadjordje's Serbia to the Greek rebels. And there were many Greeks who fought in the Serbian revolutionary army as soldiers and officers, and who would be eager to establish links with their homeland and assist the process.
Yes, IIRC later in life, Karađorđe was also personally on good terms with the leadership of the Filiki Eteria, so I can definitely see Serbia sending troops and funds to Greece, like it did in the OTL 1821 Romanian revolt, or even launching some kind of campaign against the Turks after the Greek revolution breaks out. And speaking of the 1821 unrest in the Danubian principalities, I can see those getting them full independence from the Turks, but perhaps landing Romania even more firmly in the Russian sphere (especially if they don't have to hastily withdraw in 1812, the Russians might install their favored lords in Moldavia and Wallachia on top of taking Bessarabia), however with Russia expanding so quickly, something like the Crimean war to "keep them in line" is still reasonably likely, which may, like IOTL, pull Romania out of Russian influence.
  • So what would the territory of this alt-Serbia look like? In say 1820? It's hard to say...in the end it will be great power diplomacy drawing the lines, and anyone's wishes - or military successes - will be secondary factors. But if we're taking the 1809 offensive as a PoD, I think the result might look something like this:
    View attachment 812630
    Serbia is an autonomous state under the nominal sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire and under Russian influence. Central Bosnia is also an autonomous state, probably Muslim-dominated, and probably under Austrian influence.
I had more or less that in mind, with some differences. I can see something like the OTL uprising of Husein Gradaščević for Bosnian autonomy and against concessions to Serbia happening earlier, installing a Muslim leadership in Bosnia that is a bit more reactionary/extreme/anti Christian than its Ottoman counterpart. I imagine it coming under light Austrian influence at first, but with something akin to the OTL Herzegovinian revolts (like Nevesinjska Puška) happening a bit earlier than IOTL, in part as a reaction to the rather heavy handed rule of the newly-autonomous Bosnian captains, and netting Serbia Herzegovina, while the remainder of Bosnia splits off from the Ottoman empire, seeing it as unable to protect it, and more formally becomes an Austrian protectorate. I also pictured Bosnia keeping Herceg Novi and it developing into a somewhat notable port in the period between TTLs Serbian revolution and the Herzegovinian revolt, due to Bosnia and the Ottomans using it to bypass Serbia.
  • Political and economic development: well this has the same base conditions as OTL's Serbia - feudalism is abolished and you get a country of free peasant smallholders with a verrry gradual development of industry. But here it would develop much faster due to greater resources, possible sea access and a better head-start all around. (Interestingly, revolutionary Serbia - the one from 1804-1813, which survives in this timeline - placed a much greater priority on developing public education than Obrenovic's government would in OTL.)

    Proximity to the Adriatic sea also means less economic dependence on Austria and less getting blackmailed by Austria on various issues. In terms of foreign relations, Russia's influence would be huge and much more decisive than it was in OTL - unless Russia gets slapped around in one of the wars against Napoleon later. Then it's anyone's game.
The point about education is interesting. Certainly likely to drive quicker (relative to OTL's slow speed so still not terribly quick) industrialization and economic development more broadly.

Good point, though TBF I picture Serbia going Russophile eventually in almost any TL with a POD after 1806 because of Austria's designs on Bosnia and of course Russian aid in the revolt, barring, as you said, drastic weakening of Russia.
 
Glad to see someone into the topic. I imagine you're from Serbia, based on your bio saying you're from Moesia Superior and the fact that, let's be real, only a Serb would care about such a POD.
Your guess is correct...lol yeah, I know.
Yes yes, I also figured that this would lead to a Serbian-Montenegrin joint offensive in Raška and was thinking about a Serbian Vidin. The big question in my mind is, would the Ottomans allow a connection with Montenegro in the peace treaty, or, really, I know they'd want to prevent it, but would they be in a position to stop it since I know they were in a rather shaky position generally at the time.
Good question, it could go either way. The Ottomans would be eager to get back a land connection to Bosnia, even if it means concessions in some other areas. But they might not get to make that choice - especially if Bosnia is invaded and placed into the sphere of some other European power in the events surrounding our PoD.
Indeed. Shit, with Napoleon falling ill, I could see Russia, which to my knowledge was aware that he planned to invade, might start the war of the 6th coalition OFFENSIVELY: I hadn't really considered Russians popping up to besiege French Ragusa or Cataro or something, but it is certainly a possibility too. Overall, I think that, come the end of the Napoleonic wars, Russia will be in a far better bargaining position.
Could be. There is something about dual PoDs that gives me a headache, so I try think in terms of one PoD whenever possible :D (in this case, the events of 1809). But the ripple effects from 1809 to 1812 could very well result in a more prepared Russia, or more hesitant Napoleon - or both.
I had more or less that in mind, with some differences. I can see something like the OTL uprising of Husein Gradaščević for Bosnian autonomy and against concessions to Serbia happening earlier, installing a Muslim leadership in Bosnia that is a bit more reactionary/extreme/anti Christian than its Ottoman counterpart. I imagine it coming under light Austrian influence at first, but with something akin to the OTL Herzegovinian revolts (like Nevesinjska Puška) happening a bit earlier than IOTL, in part as a reaction to the rather heavy handed rule of the newly-autonomous Bosnian captains, and netting Serbia Herzegovina, while the remainder of Bosnia splits off from the Ottoman empire, seeing it as unable to protect it, and more formally becomes an Austrian protectorate. I also pictured Bosnia keeping Herceg Novi and it developing into a somewhat notable port in the period between TTLs Serbian revolution and the Herzegovinian revolt, due to Bosnia and the Ottomans using it to bypass Serbia.
Interesting idea about Herceg Novi. Yeah, that sounds like a realistic possibility.
 
Wasn't Herceg Novi part of France's Illyrian Provinces by then?
To my knowledge, the Illyrian provinces contained what had been Venetian Dalmatia, bits of Croatia proper, and parts of Austria around modern Slovenia. I don’t know of Napoleon taking Ottoman Neum and Herceg Novi, maybe you’re thinking of Kotor and the areas around it that used to be attached to Dalmatia?
 
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