Let's say events in Russia are delayed. Create your own mechanism, if you feel it necessary. Assume this butterflies into a successful Communist revolution in Germany in 1918. Then, the Bolsheviks (or the other Marxist faction) seize power in Moscow. So, there are two separate Communist states. What happens next?
WI: First communist Revolution in Germany?
- Thread starter Yelnoc
- Start date
The success of a Communist revolution in Germany relies on the Entente being unwilling to intervene in Germany. This shouldn't be that difficult of a condition, considering the exhaustion of public support for war in France (as well as simple exhaustion of French military resources). Probably neither Britain nor France would be able or willing in 1918 to conduct an invasion and possible occupation of German soil, even if the alternative is a Communist Germany. Without foreign support and given the miserable state of the German army, it's not inconceivable that a civil war in Germany could swing in favor of the revolutionaries.
If Germany does become a Communist state in the heart of Europe, much of Eastern Europe would probably follow suit. In Western Europe too, Communist movements will probably be more determined - in Italy, for example. If Germany allies with Red Russia, they might cooperate to destroy their mutual enemy in Poland, but aside from that Russia and Germany have conflicting strategic interests and at some point, even if it's decades in the future, they will probably come to blows.
If Germany does become a Communist state in the heart of Europe, much of Eastern Europe would probably follow suit. In Western Europe too, Communist movements will probably be more determined - in Italy, for example. If Germany allies with Red Russia, they might cooperate to destroy their mutual enemy in Poland, but aside from that Russia and Germany have conflicting strategic interests and at some point, even if it's decades in the future, they will probably come to blows.
People more knowledgeable than I would know in more detail, but I think I know enough about the history of the Soviet Union and the general behavior of postwar Europe to guess at a few trends.
1. If Germany is a communist country first, it probably isn't a "Communist" country in the sense that we know the term, that is, it probably isn't arranged along Lennist Principles. As such, while the USSR will look to Germany for aide, there will eventually be some ideological squabbles between the two countries over which is closer to a communist ideal.
2. Communist Germany's leaders may dominate the international communist movement. The USSR won't be able to claim that all true leftists have to unequivocally support them, as they are now no longer the "first" communist nation.
3. The USSR will beg Germany for support during the civil war if Communist Germany is stable enough. Of course, due to the postwar condition of the country, I doubt Germany is going to be willing to become as heavily involved as Lenin would like.
4. This is going to cause a great deal of panic in other western nations. Russia caused a Red Scare on its own, and that country was something of a backwater in the eyes of Britain France and the United States. If a place like Germany becomes communist, you probably see a worse Red Scare.
Not sure where this plays out long term though. That largely depends on what the German leadership does.
Again I don't know how plausible a communist Germany actually is, or how close to the truth my guesses are. If I'm radically wrong. I apologize.
1. If Germany is a communist country first, it probably isn't a "Communist" country in the sense that we know the term, that is, it probably isn't arranged along Lennist Principles. As such, while the USSR will look to Germany for aide, there will eventually be some ideological squabbles between the two countries over which is closer to a communist ideal.
2. Communist Germany's leaders may dominate the international communist movement. The USSR won't be able to claim that all true leftists have to unequivocally support them, as they are now no longer the "first" communist nation.
3. The USSR will beg Germany for support during the civil war if Communist Germany is stable enough. Of course, due to the postwar condition of the country, I doubt Germany is going to be willing to become as heavily involved as Lenin would like.
4. This is going to cause a great deal of panic in other western nations. Russia caused a Red Scare on its own, and that country was something of a backwater in the eyes of Britain France and the United States. If a place like Germany becomes communist, you probably see a worse Red Scare.
Not sure where this plays out long term though. That largely depends on what the German leadership does.
Again I don't know how plausible a communist Germany actually is, or how close to the truth my guesses are. If I'm radically wrong. I apologize.
wolf_brother
Banned
That's unlikely, and quite the opposite of how things played out in reality. Even IOTL with the exhaustion and near collapse of their empires the Allies intervened in the Russian Civil War. Germany is much closer, and is the original enemy instead of an ally going through a round of revolution; the allies will invade and crush the commies and the imperialists both. You'll need to wreck the French at least, and likely the British as well with their own revolutionary problems to distract them from Germany.
As it's already been brought up, there will ideological differences between Germany and Russia. German communists were more "democratically inclined" in the sense that there was disdain for centralism and bureacracy (as exemplified by Rosa Luxemburg). A Communist Germany would probably end up more along the lines of syndicalism or Yugoslavia even. This in itself would have huge effects on the Moscow model. Do Lenin and the Bolsheviks build off that same model, seeing its success? Hard to say, and its even more dependent on whether Germany takes an internationalist approach. If it does, individuals like Trotsky will certainly foster some sort of alliance for revolution.
Hungary in addition would go red, and France and the U.K. could be debilitated by worker revolts after not just one, but two major Communist revolutions. An authoritarian approach at home in the Western powers is certainly not out of the question.
Hungary in addition would go red, and France and the U.K. could be debilitated by worker revolts after not just one, but two major Communist revolutions. An authoritarian approach at home in the Western powers is certainly not out of the question.
This is one thing I was thinking about. What if the original POD is an even later US intervention in the war (or none at all)? Thus, when Germany finally surrenders France is even more wrecked. I have a feeling that Britain might stay out of it if the Revolution happened quick enough and the Brits couldn't expect much support from France.
kittiesRcool
Banned
Is there any possibility of the two states merging under one government at all? They can't have competing interests if they're the same country.
kittiesRcool
Apart from the considerable differences and history of rivalry between the two nations, I suspect you're being rather optimistic about a country having no competing interests. Plenty of states have had civil wars and other internal conflicts.
Steve
A communist revolution in Germany would lead to the rest of Europe losing its shit and a possible war.
Hmmm...
Multiple Proxy Servers, immediate trollish posting in Chat as soon as you signed up.
Banned.