WI: Finland Retains Repola and Porajärvi after 1921

IOTL, Finland gave up its claims on Repola and Porajärvi (see a map) after Soviet Russia offered Petsamo to Finland in exchange during the peace negotiation in Tartu in 1920. Petsamo being an Arctic Sea port, this offer was hard to decline for Finns and has been also the target of military expeditions during the Kinship Wars, a period in the late 1910's and early 1920's when Finnish volunteers travelled to Finno-Ugric areas in Kola, East Karelia, Ingria and Estonia to support/create local nationalist movements and aid efforts to eventually annex some of those areas to Finland. Compared to other attempted conquests in East Karelia, Repola and Porajärvi were in some ways special cases. Unlike elsewhere in East Karelia, people in those places actually did show interest in joining Finland and the Finnish government was already treating them as Finnish territories. Soviet Russia was also ready to negotiate about the future of those areas, unlike with other areas in East Karelia. Now, using some handwavium, let's assume that something happens during negotiations which allows Finland to gain those two territories, in addition to retaining Petsamo, and doesn't withdrew from the area in 1921.

For one, there would be possibly less talk about the ”shameful peace” of Tartu among nationalist right-wingers, though there would be probably many of those who would continue to think that Finland should have got the whole East Karelia. Finland being more succesful in Repola and Porajärvi might actually have an ironic effect to make some nationalists even angrier when the peace eventually comes, because unlike IOTL, ITTL these expeditions to East Karelia actually seem more viable and succesful. Bobi Sivèn, a right-wing activist, wouldn't kill himself after hearing about the result of negotiations and that his plans to arm locals in the area were denied and nationalists would lose one important martyr in their mythology.

Demography-wise, the area wouldn't increase the population of Finland that significantly. I couldn't find the excact population of the area, but it seems to have been around 4.000-5.000 at the time. Repola and Porajärvi had fairly similar population levels. Culturally the area is rather interesting, being Orthodox and speaking Karelian language, though probably counted as a Finnish dialect ITTL, so there could be small butterflies there.

I would assume that there would be some concerning the East Karelian Uprising 1921-1922 but I must admit that my knowledge of that conflict is rather limited. Repola and Porajärvi were two areas where Finnish volunteers were most active IOTL, but that wouldn't obviously happen here.
 
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How defensible would these areas be, if Winter War breaks out?

Having thick forests and only few roads, the terrain is similar to those where Finnish defences were most succesful. If the Winter War breaks out in a same way than it did IOTL (assuming a "low amount of butteflies scenario" here), battles in Northern Karelia and Southern Kainuu would probably move somewhat eastward. The first Soviet incursion to the Finnish territory actually happened in an OTL border town of Lieksa in Northern Karelia, so that is now butterflied away. People in the Finnish military responsible for creating defence plans for areas north of Lake Ladoga wouldn't probably mind that the border now is few dozen miles futher away from Joensuu (the capital of Northern Karelia) and Kajaani (the capital of Kainuu) would be also less threatened from south-east.
 
On the face of it, I think the knock-on effects would not be huge. The nationalist right would be somewhat more pacified (or, to take the opposite tack, somewhat more emboldened to have been able to push through at least some of their demands) and Bobi Sivén would still be a living person instead of a martyr and a legend. There would be various butterflies, but it is hard to name ones that would have a major effect on Finnish history. Apart from Sivén, who ITTL could become a fairly influential political figure for the nationalists by the 30s, maybe even in the Eduskunta, it is also hard to see obvious different-than-OTL people launched into prominence by the change. One butterfly that comes to mind: given that the Ritavuori murder in 1922 was due to nationalist agitation and dissillusionment with the government, maybe ITTL it is avoided, as well? Thus also Ritavuori might well have a political career we did not see IOTL, well into the 40s. Another thing would be that the Academic Karelia Society (or something very similar) would be started under somewhat different circumstances, and might adopt somewhat different policies under a somewhat different leadership, among which we can very likely count Sivén too, here seen as an "established man of the cause".

Generally though, this part of the border is the one with the least obvious effects for Finnish foreign relations and internal development. Changes to Petsamo and surroundings, on one hand, and differences with the border on the Isthmus, on the other, would conceivably lead to more definite changes than this one.

Assuming most things go as per IOTL until the Winter War and the war ends roughly on schedule, it would be interesting where Stalin demands the border to be drawn in the peace deal. Will Finland retain at least some of the Repola and Porajärvi area, considering that they are "out of the way" in comparison to the very north and south? And will Finland thus have a better starting position for the 1941 attack phase of the Continuation War, and better chance at threatening the Murmansk railway ITTL?

This is the sort of an issue where one's view on knock-on effects and butterflies will be challenged, though. A small one, as changes go, but one that can arguably have some decent reach in terms of compounding national-level differences. For most people on the forum, I believe, this POD would not change the eventual Winter War or its outcome as much as to make a difference. On balance, I am not at all sure about that myself. Given how touch and go the war was IOTL in many ways, ITTL I could see the various little interwar changes meshing together in a way that if there indeed is a Winter War analogue, things could go quite differently for Finland, up to actually losing the war within the first two months.

To give an answer with more content, I'd have to take a better look at things and developments in the border areas, and with the nationalist right, and maybe actually start reading some of the books that keep accumulating on my bookshelves...
 
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