WI Fidel Castro dies 2006?

What if Fidel Castro died in the first half of 2006, before he had a chance to name his brother as successor (in July OTL)?

CONSOLIDATION: Would Raul still become the next President without issue? Or is there a possibility that reformers could take power -- perhaps even in a struggle reminiscent of China following Mao's death?
 
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I could see Raul becoming the next president, or at least trying to, but it wouldn't be so smooth. I could see protests sort of like the Arab Spring but the Cuban Spring and would be put down rather quickly by Raul as a way to show he's in charge.

Worst case scenario and with a dash of ASB it could be something like Syria now and prompting a US response. I don't believe it would be a military response or if it was a very large one.
 
I could see Raul becoming the next president, or at least trying to, but it wouldn't be so smooth. I could see protests sort of like the Arab Spring but the Cuban Spring and would be put down rather quickly by Raul as a way to show he's in charge.

Worst case scenario and with a dash of ASB it could be something like Syria now and prompting a US response. I don't believe it would be a military response or if it was a very large one.

Might the exile community in Florida et el play a part in this as well? If so, could this be what drags in the US?
 
I remember there was this one old video game from 2003, called "Ghost Recon: Island Thunder", in which Fidel Castro dies in 2006 and over the next four years, the Cuban government goes through transition after transition, before blowing over into full-blown civil war in 2010, between rival drug cartels and organized crime syndicates, with FARC reinforcements from Colombia supporting them.

Ultimately, after the USA and some NATO countries intervene, the drug cartels, crime syndicates and FARC are defeated and routed, and a new Cuban government is installed after free and democratic elections, monitored by the USA and NATO.

Needless to say, it was a great video game for its time, to say the least.
 
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I don't think the US military would get involved at all. A third war? It'll never fly, no matter how much the Florida Cubans complain.

I get the impression that things would actually be worse for Cuba -- if there's an uprising and Raul clamps down on it, he probably wouldn't be enacting the economic reforms he is now in order to not appear weak (or at least he'd delay them).
 

NothingNow

Banned
What if Fidel Castro died in the first half of 2006, before he had a chance to name his brother as successor (in July OTL)?

Raul would likely take over, as well, he's the Commander of the Military, and one of the most powerful people in Civilian government. Such happens without any real hiccups, aside from some Refugee group setting off a carbomb or two somewhere.

I get the impression that things would actually be worse for Cuba -- if there's an uprising and Raul clamps down on it, he probably wouldn't be enacting the economic reforms he is now in order to not appear weak (or at least he'd delay them).

Except
A) Raul is not only a hardcore Communist true believer, but he's also a pragmatist.
B) The Cuban economy was growing about 10-15% annually durring the 00's, special period be damned.
C) The Castros are actually kinda popular, since you know, they did remove Batista from power, and stood up to the US. Oh, and then there was the whole thing in Africa.

You're not going to see shit without someone starting it. Still, any regime change this late hopefully wouldn't involve democide.
 
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NothingNow

Banned
Yeah, I'm saying that if someone did start some shit, things would be worse. No matter who wins or loses.

Yes, but the US wouldn't intervene unless shit either really hit the fan, or someone started blowing up decent chunks of the Miami or Tampa Bay Areas.

And by someone, I'm talking about outside (like Miami) interests.
 
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