WI: Ferdinand VII of Spain dies in 1815/1816?

How would Carlos react to the request of Mexico to serve as their head of state in a commonwealth? What else would be different for Spain?
 
How would Carlos react to the request of Mexico to serve as their head of state in a commonwealth? What else would be different for Spain?

Well with Carlos's father abdicating in 1808, Ferdinand became king, if he dies in 1815/16, with no heir, Infante Carlos, Count of Molina, becomes Carlos V of Spain, so he would be King of Spain any way and in 1816, Mexico is still under the rule of Spain, so as a conservative military monarch, Carlos will demand the cease revolt.

With a lack of Carlist War, there will be more soldiers to be used in the colonies and European war, keeping Spain as one of the strongest power in Europe.
 
While Iturbide was alarmed by the radical liberal movement in Spain, he was also a royalist who believed (correctly, IMO) that the only way to keep a monarchy in New Spain was to have a crown in Mexico, not ruled from afar. While ostensibly he led the overthrow in the name of a Bourbon, I'm not so sure that it had to be a conservative Bourbon (only the youngest had any liberal in him at all, and I don't think he was overwhelmingly so). He was more afraid of the populous masses inducing ultra liberalism on their way to republicanism. Had Ferdinand led the charge toward a more liberal regime (as opposed to having it imposed upon his protesting body), Iturbide might not have been so ready to switch sides. He was concerned about the inmates running the asylum and the effects on New Spain. Plus, part of me suspects that he knew the Bourbons weren't going to accept the crown of New Spain, conveniently leaving himself as a leading candidate for king/Boss. It was a twist on the caudillo head honcho politics that went on elsewhere in the Spanish colonies, but the result was the same: kick out the Spanish crown and takeover as top boss for life, or until another strong man kicks him out.

Had Ferdinand died, and Carlos taken over (presuming Carlos IV doesn't make a bid for return), it's quite possible things go the same in New Spain. Carlos is just as conservative as Ferdinand, and is just as likely to have the liberal masses try running the show, forcing their way to the forefront in the timeframe in question. I don't think switching kings automatically butterflies the events in New Spain.
 
my second point, to be clear, is that Ferdinand was a conservative who wasn't in charge (technically, yes. realistically, no...at that point). Nothing changes with Carlos on the throne.
 
could you explain your reasoning further?

the way I see it is that if the masses aren't going to accept Ferdinand's brand of conservatism, they're not going to accept Carlos'. Just because Carlos is more conservative doesn't mean he can control the masses any more than Ferdinand could. Ferdinand didn't willingly accept the liberals.
 
his rule will be different, but I'm failing to see how he prevents the rise of the liberals, which you claim is what has triggered Iturbide switching sides. Liberalism is on the rise, and it will be on the rise regardless of which king is on the throne. Ferdinand was forced to accept it, and so will Carlos, or he'll be an unemployed King.

In order to butterfly Iturbide, you have to keep liberalism in check. If anything, Carlos' staunch absolute monarchist views blows the whole thing up sooner.
 
ah. I see said the blind man as he picked up his hammer and saw. You're moving the Carlist civil war up a couple of decades.

I guess I don't share your optimism that Carlos would be able to control things with his iron fist.

Did you happen to see my query to you on the Poll thread about America winning the revolution without French help? I had asked what lands Britain offered to Spain if Spain stayed out of it.
 
thanks. I know Spain wanted Gibraltar badly, but what I've read, Britain wouldn't cough it up. Dunno about Minorca, but I'm guessing florida would have been easy for Spain to gain. But, sans Gibraltar, Spain was eager to see Britain get knocked down a peg. Anyhow, that's another thread.
 
Top