WI: Ferdinand of Austria and Lajos II of Hungary Swap Fates

As it says on the tin, Ferdinand of Austria dies youngish before he has a male heir, whilst Lajos II lives to "old" age with a large family (considering his sister's gaggle of kids and his bastard, Janos Llanthos' daughter having something like a dozen or more, apparently, I don't think this is unreasonable). How does this affect Europe (and the Habsburgs)'s future?
 
As it says on the tin, Ferdinand of Austria dies youngish before he has a male heir, whilst Lajos II lives to "old" age with a large family (considering his sister's gaggle of kids and his bastard, Janos Llanthos' daughter having something like a dozen or more, apparently, I don't think this is unreasonable). How does this affect Europe (and the Habsburgs)'s future?

Off the cuff, if Sigismund II still dies without issue, he's got a male line older cousin who can succeed him; then again, Bona Sforza could also not miscarry her second son. Most likely Karl V doesn't partition the empire (unless he has a surviving second son, always possible, but he'd be down a regent, so he'd be on the road more, so I think he'd have less time for that than OTL).
 
Charles V likely splits his Spanish and Imperial concerns. If OTL forced him to abdicate even with Ferdinand running the show in Austria TTL will give him far more stress. The question is if the Burgundian Inheritance will be inherited alongside Spain.
 
Charles V likely splits his Spanish and Imperial concerns. If OTL forced him to abdicate even with Ferdinand running the show in Austria TTL will give him far more stress. The question is if the Burgundian Inheritance will be inherited alongside Spain.

Yeah, but between who does he split them if his success at fathering sons goes as OTL (he only had one to survive out of a brood of four or five). Who's the best candidate to succeed to the empire?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Well if Ferdinand has no children then Charles' daughter Mary needs a new husband. Perhaps whoever she marries could get a piece of the pie. On the other hand it's hard to see Charles giving anything other than a small piece like Milan to a non Habsburg.

What would the state of Hungary be under Louis, strong bulwark against the Ottomans or broken and beaten tributary state? The balance of power in the Balkans may factor into Charles' thinking and the final disposition of his Austrian territories.
 
Charles V likely splits his Spanish and Imperial concerns. If OTL forced him to abdicate even with Ferdinand running the show in Austria TTL will give him far more stress. The question is if the Burgundian Inheritance will be inherited alongside Spain.
Yes but to who?
 
Yes but to who?

Without another Habsburg candidate Charles V will leave everything to his son Philip II. Even IOTL towards the end of his reign he wanted Philip II to succeed Ferdinand, whereas naturally Ferdinand favoured his own son Maximilian II.
Still if Ferdinand dies young enough, then according to the First Congress of Vienna (1515) Charles V would have been obliged to marry Anne of Bohemia & Hungary, so potentially there's another family tree ITTL, and if not IOTL he had a few legitimate sons who died in their infancy (Ferdinand, John and another John). If Charles V would have more surviving sons ITTL, then I can see a more even division of the inheritance; so the eldest inherits the Crown of Castille and the Crown of Aragon, and the second eldest son would inherit the Austrian Hereditary Lands, the Burgundian Inheritance, the Habsburg candidacy in the imperial election and possibly Milan.
Charles V will try to get his son elected as King of the Romans during his own reign, in order to secure the succession. IMHO this will be harder to achieve, when he only has one son, Philip, but if he would have another surviving son, this will be easier to achieve, since the Prince-Electors weren't happy with an absentee Emperor.
Charles V, even when Ferdinand helped him out in the Empire, had to travel a lot IOTL, and he wasn't able to stay anywhere long enough to give the needed attention.
 
If Ferdinand married Anne before his death (but no children are born from this marriage) and Charles V married Isabel of Portugal like in OTL, assuming that she will still die in childbirth he could be more willing to remary if only one son is born from his marriage, and defintely if no sons are born or none survive. With only one male heir it's likely that either Imperial or Spanish throne is lost, most likely the German one because son of Charles and Isabel would be rather Spanish raised. And who could replace Habsburgs? Maybe house of Wittelsbach? Or one of Lajos's sons, who will be nephew of Charles.
 
As it says on the tin, Ferdinand of Austria dies youngish before he has a male heir, whilst Lajos II lives to "old" age with a large family (considering his sister's gaggle of kids and his bastard, Janos Llanthos' daughter having something like a dozen or more, apparently, I don't think this is unreasonable). How does this affect Europe (and the Habsburgs)'s future?

Well, there's a lot more to their fates than their progeny. Louis II died at the age of 20 at Mohacs, while Ferdinand lived to 61.

Since Ferdinand was not at Mohacs, he couldn't be killed there, so he must die some other way. He had a daughter born two months earlier; his eldest son was born eleven monts later.

So the double PoD is that Louis escapes the Mohacs disaster alive, while Ferdinand dies of some random infection at about the same date.

There are two major effects. First, Louis survives and continues to hold the crown of Hungary. This will constrain the actions of Sultan Suleiman, whose 1529 siege of Vienna was in large part a response to Ferdinand's 1527 invasion to enforce his claim to Hungary (Suleiman had recognized John Szapolya of Transylvania as King - as his vassal). If Louis lives, and Ferdinand dies, Szapolya makes no claim, obviously. so the struggle between Louis and Suleiman continues, but there is no Hapsburg intervention, and Hungary remains united - no "Eastern Kingdom of Hungary" under the Szapolyas.

Does Louis live to a ripe old age in exile? Or does he regain control of of all or part of Hungary? Does he make a deal with Suleiman?

The absence of conflict with the Ottomans will affect Charles' handling of the Reformation; he has more of a free hand. Also, however, he does not have his brother to take on some of the responsibilities.

And there will of course be butterflies: Charles may have no son or several, instead of one.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
That's kind of what I was getting at. A weakened and beaten Louis who only barely survives Mohacs isn't going to be a strong partner for Charles or a candidate to succeed him as Emperor. If he looses Belgrade and Serbia and is forced to pay a heavy tribute to Suleiman he wouldn't have the resources to contest an Imperial Election and I doubt Suleiman would be happy if he tried.

I was thinking that Charles' nephew John of Denmark, if he survived, might be a candidate to marry his daughter. He's dispossessed of Denmark so he'd be growing up in exile among the Habsburgs so perhaps he's adopted as an heir to Austria? A bit of a stretch. A second wife for Charles and a quest for another son is probably more likely.
 
If Charles left only one son he would try to make him his sole successor, which would not end good, because *Philip* will be absend from Germany even more often that his father. It would be better if he have either multiple sons or no sons but multiple daughters.
 
If Charles left only one son he would try to make him his sole successor, which would not end good, because *Philip* will be absend from Germany even more often that his father. It would be better if he have either multiple sons or no sons but multiple daughters.

It wouldn't be that bad, if Charles would only have one surviving son, like IOTL. Castille, Aragon, Austria and Burgundy (Low Countries and Franche Comté) will still be held by the Habsburgs, though with a potential for rebellions. The Imperial Election could be lost, though with Austria-Burgundy, the Habsburgs will remain very influential and powerful in the Empire.
Also I don't think Charles V would agree that having multiple daughters and no sons would be better. ;)

@Vitruvius: John of Denmark, unless he's restored to his thrones, would not be important enough. A French, English, Bohemian-Hungarian or Polish-Lithuanian match IMHO will be preferred over John of Denmark. I don't see Charles V being willing to cede ancestral Habsburg lands. If John lives long enough and for various reasons Charles V would be unable to arrange a suitable match for Mary, then it might happen, once Mary reaches a certain age and is still unmarried. Like how IOTL Philip II married his daughter Isabella to his nephew Albrecht. Then it could happen, but it IMHO won't be the first choice.
 
Basically what I meant in the OP was that Ferdinand dies without issue, while Lajos is lucky enough to get more than one surviving son. Would Karl V then marry Maria of Spain to (for example, the duke of Bavaria or something) ensure a more peaceable change of powers? Or would we see Felipe still attempt to throw his hat in the ring as far as the Imperial election is concerned? And how would Karl V partition it here?
 
Ferdinand and Anne's first child, Elisabeth was born in July 1526, they were married since 1521. The battle of Mohacs was in August 1526. Realistically Ferdinand is going to have at least one surviving daughter. Provided there aren't multiple PoD's.
Charles V would arrange a marriage for his daughter, which would benefit him politically. This could be Bavaria, though a French match IMHO seems a bit more likely (both for political and prestige reasons).

If he can't guarantee the Prince-Electors will vote the way he likes, then he wouldn't arrange an election. Again if he only has one son, then Charles V will leave everything, which can be inherited to his only son (basically everything except the position of Holy Roman Emperor).
Though if Philip would have more luck, then a future Castille-Aragon and Austria-Burgundy division would IMHO happen at one point. Either or neither side could end up with the duchy of Milan.
 
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