WI Ferdinand Marcos overthrown by military coup

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Now OTL, the 1986 coup attempt by anti-Marcos officers, led by Lt. Col. Gregorio Honasan, was discovered, and the only reason they didn't end up in front of a firing squad was because they got some last-minute support from the Church, sparking the EDSA Revolution.

But what if their coup was not discovered, but instead succeeded (I think it would have succeeded if not discovered - Ramos was part of the plot, and the main loyalist forces would have been at least a day away from Manila)? Would the new military junta have handed over power to Aquino? OTL some of them ended up repeatedly trying to overthrow Aquino.

 

[Tredecimus]

What would happen to Marcos afterwards (assuming the attack on Malacañang succeeds)? Would he be held prisoner, or executed immediately?

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

What would happen to Marcos afterwards (assuming the attack on Malacañang succeeds)? Would he be held prisoner, or executed immediately?

IMO it would probably depend on how his guards acted (do they resist to the last man, or basically give up without firing a shot?) and what they think the loyalists outside Manila will do, particularly what General Tadiar and his Marines do. OTL Tadiar just stood around, and refused to implement the orders to fire on the protesters. I doubt he'd have the same compunctions acting against armed men. Ver, of course, was prepared to level Manila OTL to preserve the regime. So with that in mind, I think it likely that Marcos is summarily executed just in case. Maybe Imelda too for good measure.

 

[Driftless]

How does international recognition of the new regime play into the situation? If I remember right, didn't President Reagan give some thought to supporting Marcos at the start of the People Power Revolution? Also, how closely aligned were the local democracies (Korea, Australia, Japan, etc) with Marcos?

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

How does international recognition of the new regime play into the situation? If I remember right, didn't President Reagan give some thought to supporting Marcos at the start of the People Power Revolution? Also, how closely aligned were the local democracies (Korea, Australia, Japan, etc) with Marcos?

Reagan was ambivalent. On the one hand, Marcos was a staunch anticommunist. On the other hand, his election rigging and the assassination of Aquino was bad for business and foreign investment. OTL he simply tried to split the difference, but it wasn't until the protests that he quietly removed support from Marcos through Laxalt.

IIRC Korea at the time was a military dictatorship, so they probably would have mumbled something about ensuring stability or something similar.

I wonder, though, if the RAM junta wouldn't just set the stage for a later revolution? I have no idea whether Ramos, Enrile and Honasan would voluntarily return to the barracks in the long term.

 

[BigDave1967]

I can't see how a guy who collaborated with the Japanese like Ferdinand never got charged and was dictator for so long.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

I can't see how a guy who collaborated with the Japanese like Ferdinand never got charged and was dictator for so long.

While his contentions that he was in the Resistance in the war is pure fiction, are you sure he was an outright collaborator like Laurel?

Even then, you have to realize that pretty much most of the political class, Quezon and his circle aside, collaborated with the Japanese. Ninoy Aquino's father, after all, served as speaker of the National Assembly of the collaborationist Second Republic. That's part of why Laurel and many other collaborationists eventually ended up serving as democratically-elected politicians in the Third Republic and later - prosecuting them meant essentially getting rid of the entire prewar political establishment, leaving behind Quezon and his group, and the dreaded Communists. If Marcos actively collaborated, he pretty much did what nearly every nationalist politician of the time did.

And as for why he stayed in power for so long, well, first, there was the fact he exploited American (and domestic - the Philippines had 1968 and its aftermath like the rest of the world) Cold War paranoia about being a bulwark against Communism (and indeed, the Communists were not very nice people, still aren't). Then there's the fact that initially, he did seem to bring economic progress to the country, like pretty much all the postwar presidents did. I know people - not just Ilokanos - who still look back on those days, because the government gave them a scholarship, or gave them agricultural credits, or gave their dad a job in road construction. The feeling was, Marcos was bringing progress like Lee Kuan Yew, and stopping the Red Menace from killing us all. So what, the thinking went, if a few malcontents get disappeared for the good of the Motherland? They're standing in the way of progress anyway. Of course he later became more blatant in his use of the national budget as his personal checking account, but in 1973? He was genuinely popular overwhelmingly.

 

[BigDave1967]

While his contentions that he was in the Resistance in the war is pure fiction, are you sure he was an outright collaborator like Laurel?

Even then, you have to realize that pretty much most of the political class, Quezon and his circle aside, collaborated with the Japanese. Ninoy Aquino's father, after all, served as speaker of the National Assembly of the collaborationist Second Republic. That's part of why Laurel and many other collaborationists eventually ended up serving as democratically-elected politicians in the Third Republic and later - prosecuting them meant essentially getting rid of the entire prewar political establishment, leaving behind Quezon and his group, and the dreaded Communists. If Marcos actively collaborated, he pretty much did what nearly every nationalist politician of the time did.

It wasn't all too uncommon for figures in asia to collaborate with Japan. Sukarno collaborated in Indonesia probably because he thought it would help his position.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

It wasn't all too uncommon for figures in asia to collaborate with Japan. Sukarno collaborated in Indonesia probably because he thought it would help his position.

Right. It's interesting though how many democratically-elected politicians became fascists overnight once the Japanese were in town. And how after the war they went back to being typical politicians in a democracy (Marcos aside).

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Could the military actually overthrow Marcos if he botched EDSA Uno? I made a similar thread on the EDSA Revolution, asking if it could have ended in bloodshed.

 

[Tredecimus]

Could the military actually overthrow Marcos if he botched EDSA Uno?

It depends on who would join the Ramos-Enrile faction. There's still a substantial support for Marcos from the military. Worst case scenario would be a bloody "civil war" which could end up with either Malacañang or Camp Aguinaldo leveled to the ground.

 

[Namayan]

Now OTL, the 1986 coup attempt by anti-Marcos officers, led by Lt. Col. Gregorio Honasan, was discovered, and the only reason they didn't end up in front of a firing squad was because they got some last-minute support from the Church, sparking the EDSA Revolution.

But what if their coup was not discovered, but instead succeeded (I think it would have succeeded if not discovered - Ramos was part of the plot, and the main loyalist forces would have been at least a day away from Manila)? Would the new military junta have handed over power to Aquino? OTL some of them ended up repeatedly trying to overthrow Aquino.

Even if undiscovered, The coup would have not succeeded without the people's support.

Marcos still had more troops than the coup plotters. The only way to stop Marcos was put human shields. The coup plotters never had US support until the people stepped in. Marcos was still the close friend of Reagan. Without the masses, there is no way the coup can succeed.

If you look at it, a lot of the rebels turned simply because the people supported. Without it, rebel's numbers would probably go down. There were several coup's in the Philippines after Marcos' ouster, none succeed without the people's support.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Even if undiscovered, The coup would have not succeeded without the people's support.

Marcos still had more troops than the coup plotters. The only way to stop Marcos was put human shields. The coup plotters never had US support until the people stepped in. Marcos was still the close friend of Reagan. Without the masses, there is no way the coup can succeed.

If you look at it, a lot of the rebels turned simply because the people supported. Without it, rebel's numbers would probably go down. There were several coup's in the Philippines after Marcos' ouster, none succeed without the people's support.

IIRC the problem would be that much of the loyalist troops were outside Metro Manila, though. You had Ilocos, of course, and Tadiar's Marines are in Mindanao. OTOH Marcos arguably probably had the loyalty of the Air Force.

The question isn't whether the loyalists had more troops - they always did. The question is, can they bring that to bear in Manila at that point in time? Certainly like OTL Ver could have ordered more troops to surround the capital, but how fast could the Army deploy from the other side of the country - especially as some were at the front lines, so to speak?

OTOH, if the loyalists do get there in time, the RAMers are fucked. "Shit-kicker" Tadiar, for one, would have no compunction in ventilating armed mutineers, as opposed to a bunch of priests and religious. So for Ramos-Enrile-Honasan to succeed, they need to get the job done within one day at the most, or they lose.

And IIRC the problem with Reagan is that Marcos's actions were dragging the business community down with him - bad for business, no?

 

[Namayan]

IIRC the problem would be that much of the loyalist troops were outside Metro Manila, though. You had Ilocos, of course, and Tadiar's Marines are in Mindanao. OTOH Marcos arguably probably had the loyalty of the Air Force.

The question isn't whether the loyalists had more troops - they always did. The question is, can they bring that to bear in Manila at that point in time? Certainly like OTL Ver could have ordered more troops to surround the capital, but how fast could the Army deploy from the other side of the country - especially as some were at the front lines, so to speak?

OTOH, if the loyalists do get there in time, the RAMers are fucked. "Shit-kicker" Tadiar, for one, would have no compunction in ventilating armed mutineers, as opposed to a bunch of priests and religious. So for Ramos-Enrile-Honasan to succeed, they need to get the job done within one day at the most, or they lose.

And IIRC the problem with Reagan is that Marcos's actions were dragging the business community down with him - bad for business, no?

Marcos still had the navy and air force support. Without EDSA, those support butterflies away. Philippines had still a well equipped navy and airforce during Marcos time. The coup plotters were too few to control all military bases in the Philippines. If they were more as you keep assuming, then they will not need the people's support nor need Cardinal Sins support in OTL.

If you noticed during EDSA OTL, Marcos' tanks were rolling in the first day which the rebels had no answer to military wise which were stopped by the nuns and the people in OTL.

One day is impossible to win without air force and the navy,

Marcos is only bad for US business if the people of the Philippines is against Marcos which you butterflied in ATL.

If you want me to call this timeline, it is ASB. You are trying to force a win on the coup plotters who had very low logistics, lower manpower, no people support, nor the capability to do OPSEC.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Was Taidar and his Marines at Ortigas Avenue when they tried to quell the revolution? So what if they accidentally opened fire on the protesters in a panic?

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Marcos still had the navy and air force support. Without EDSA, those support butterflies away. Philippines had still a well equipped navy and airforce during Marcos time. The coup plotters were too few to control all military bases in the Philippines. If they were more as you keep assuming, then they will not need the people's support nor need Cardinal Sins support in OTL.

If you noticed during EDSA OTL, Marcos' tanks were rolling in the first day which the rebels had no answer to military wise which were stopped by the nuns and the people in OTL.

One day is impossible to win without air force and the navy,

Marcos is only bad for US business if the people of the Philippines is against Marcos which you butterflied in ATL.

If you want me to call this timeline, it is ASB. You are trying to force a win on the coup plotters who had very low logistics, lower manpower, no people support, nor the capability to do OPSEC.

Fair enough.