WI: Ferdinand I HRE dies in 1521?

Bartholome de Fonte

Hello everyone,

I'm slowly working out an AH, and while I think it will have to end up being ASBish I want to try to hammer out something plausible none the less. One of the main things I wish to have happen is for the Habsburg family to stick together and hold the empire of Charles V & I in one piece till around 1610ish.
Now, what I mean by holding the Empire together is just Spain and Austria. Anyway, we're to the title of the thread finally.

The way I'm considering at the moment for Spain and Austria to stick together is if Ferdinand dies before having any children, which would be around 1521. If this were to happen there would be a lot of butterflies I honestly am having a hard time work out. Thus, I need some help. :)

As a side note, to balance out the Habsburgs for the blood letting war that this AH will cover, I'm considering giving Milan and Naples to France, along with the benefits of domination over (most) of Italy. Sardinia and Sicily, could still be Habsburgs' hands, I haven't decided.

If Ferdinand did die, what would happen to Bohemia and Hungary (read: who'd get the throne) if Louis II still died in battle? Would the Habsburgs still get it or would someone like John Zápolya grab the throne(s)? If Louis II lives, how would he rule a Kingdom losing ground to the Ottomans?

My knowledge is kinda shaky on the HRE at times, but I'm guessing the Habsburgs would still get elected to the Emperorship, right?

And for the final butterfly that I can think of at this hour (nearing 2am) is about the Netherlands. The Eighty Years war would still happen, but if France were to hold Italy and still have the lovely fueding with the Habsburgs, it could very well join the fray. I really don't know what the end result of that could be, any suggestions?

Thanks and sorry for the sleep deprived delirium. :D
 

Anticlimacus

Banned
My first thought is a France-wank:
* The Hapsburg will have to use their resources to defend the Austrian patrimony,
* They lack most of their italian territories: Milan was an essential base to send reinforcements to Flanders from Spain and Naples was an important source of funds,
* France has those territories and can use Milan as a base against Austria, and she will control the Holy See,
* TTL France will see the Ottomans as an ally against the Hapsburg.

But then I thought that...

Spain-Austria will be thus weaker than Spain IOTL, and they will be forced to split. Austria-Burgundy will probably fall on the lutheran side seeking support against France.
Spain will not have to make war in Flanders as IOTL and will concentrate in the Mediterranean and overseas.
Probably they will keep an alliance with England against France.
The Pyrinees will prevent changes in the Franco-Spanish border. The Spanish fleet will allow Spain to keep Sicily, Sardinia and probably get Corsica.
The Ottomans will not be a harder problem than IOTL as the resources used in the northern wars IOTL would be used in the Mediterranean ITTL.
 

Alpha Trion

If Ferdinand I had died in 1521, it would have very difficult for Charles V to maintain his rule in the Empire. Ferdinand I played a valuable role as Charles’s lieutenant in Germany in OTL, enabling him to fight his wars with France and keeping relative peace with the Protestant princes in the Empire until the 1540’s. In this scenario, Charles will have to personally confront the rise of Protestantism in Germany much sooner. He also will have to personally be in Germany more because he won’t have Ferdinand to run things for him. That increases the already great stress that Charles was under in OTL. Also, Charles’s policies in Germany would be different than Ferdinand’s which may cause political troubles with some of the Catholic princes in the Empire.

If Ferdinand had died in 1521, then Charles would have had to marry immediately someone who can give him heirs. The two most interesting possibilities are his wife in OTl, Isabella, and Ferdinand’s widow in this scenario, Anne of Hungary. A marriage to Anne could definitely solve the problem of heirs for Charles because of her fertility. In OTL, Anne had fifteen children with Ferdinand, thirteen of whom reached adulthood. Lets say due to Charles’s constant traveling, he and Anne only conceive ten children, eight (four sons and four daughters) of whom achieve adulthood. This would enable him to give his first born son the Spanish crowns, his second born son the Netherlands, and his third son the Austrian lands.

In TTL, with Ferdinand’s early death, there is no guarantee that the battle of Mohacs will even take place. If we assume that Louis dies in battle against the Ottomans no matter what, then the smart move for Charles would be for him to support John Zapolya’s claim to Hungary and support the election of Sigismund I of Poland to the throne of Bohemia. The three of them could then form a defensive alliance against the Ottomans. In TTL, Charles might be able to maintain the Austrian lands from being conquered by the Ottomans until he could pass them to his third son, who would be in line to be elected king in Bohemia and/or Hungary upon the deaths of either John and/or Sigismund.

In TTL, if Charles were divide his lands into the aforementioned three inheritances, then I could see them be maintained for some time. The Netherlands needed a “native” prince who could be rule from Brussels. In TTL, Charles’s second son could fulfill that role while leaving Spain to focus on the Mediterranean and the Americas.
 

Janprimus

Well if Charles V would marry the widow of Ferdinand I, then he would be the first candidate to be elected and thus inherit Bohemia and Hungary & Croatia. Than these kingdoms with the Austrian Lands would be ideal for a second son and a third son could inherit the Burgundian Lands.

However this could also enable another two way division, the Spanish kingdoms and the Italian Lands could go to the eldest son and a second son could get the Austrian & Burgundian Lands, if things turn out right also the Bohemian and Hungarian Crown and naturally the Habsburg candidate for the position of HRE.
 

Alpha Trion

Janprimus, I concede that based on what I know of Charles V’s personality, that if he married Ferdinand’s widow Anne, he would claim the thrones of Hungary, Croatia, and Bohemia, by right of his wife. But would the estates of those three kingdoms elect him their king. Keep in mind, Charles is going to be at war with France and probably with TTL’s equivalent to the Peasant’s War simultaneously. He wouldn’t be available to defend those kingdoms from the Ottomans until he had settled things in both Italy and Germany. If he were elected to the three thrones, then he would have to contend with the combined forces of John Zapolya (who would have control of most of Hungary) and the Ottomans (who would not tolerate Charles ruling Hungary). As I suggested in my previous post, the smart thing for Charles to do would be to concede Hungary and Bohemia to John and Sigismund respectively. These kingdoms still have elective thrones, so with patience, the Hapsburgs could gain them in later decades. An alliance between John, Charles, and Sigismund could be enough to maintain Hungary as a buffer state against the Ottomans.

If Charles were elected to the three thrones in this TTL, he would have to contend with an informal coalition of France, the Ottomans, and John Zapolya, while still dealing with the growing problems between him and the princes of the Empire. Without a reliable lieutenant capable of ruling the Empire in his absence, Charles would be hard pressed to stop Zapolya from taking control all of Hungary. The princes of the Empire would be even bolder in asserting their rights if Charles is desperate for their help against the Ottomans. Francis I of France would take full advantage of Charles’s preoccupation with the affairs of Eastern Europe to expel the Spanish from Milan and Navarre. Francis would also provide support to the princes of the Empire as he did in OTL.
 

Bartholome de Fonte

I've been busy with RL things, so sorry for the slight delay.

This TL would not be a France wank Anticlimacus, I would be fine with Milan being in someone else's hands, just not the Austrians/Spanish.

I'm reading through your thread Gonzaga, and it offers a lot of potential, ungodly huge Commonwealth, anyone? :rolleyes:

I'll post an actual reply to what I am considering later tonight or tomorrow, thanks for the replies!
 
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