WI: Felipe III Remarries to Eleonora de Medici?

[JonasResende]

Hi all,

Sorry for the long radio silence. RL got in the way this last year. Finished my masters (successfully) - yay - moved, and am now currently one of the great unemployed - aw - but hopefully I'll be around more.

Inspired by a convo I had with @Vitruvius a while back, what if Felipe III remarried? OTL he didn't and from what I can find, there were two candidates offered for him: Eleonora Gonzaga (niece of Maria de Medici, Queen-Consort of France; sister to the duchess of Lorraine, OTL empress) and Eleonora de Medici (daughter of Ferdinando I of Tuscany and Christine of Lorraine).

Now, Eleonora de Medici was kept single so long as the possibility of her marrying D. Felipe III was there. Unfortunately, this didn't happen and Eleonora later died of smallpox, unwed.

What if Felipe III had married Eleonora? I can't think that this would be entirely ASB. Just let one of his three surviving sons die, that the dynasty looks a little less secure and I could definitely see him remarrying. IIRC Felipe III didn't particularly like his Savoyard half-nephews who, until his eldest child's birth, were his heirs-presumptive (we're ignoring the possibility of a Queen Isabel II, but since she had no children, the Savoyards would've wound up ruling Spain eventaully), regarding them as overly ambitious by half. When his eldest son was born, he forced the Savoyard princes in residence in Madrid (Emanuele Filiberto and one of the others) to walk in the baptismal procession in a way as to underline their displacement as his heirs.

So, what if Felipe III remarries and has a few more kids (in this scenario Eleonora would live longer than OTL). Maybe Felipe III also lives longer? IDK what killed him OTL, but he died comparatively young to his father and eldest son. Not saying that Felipe III living longer will be "great" for Spain, but it'd be interesting to see the route he takes compared to his son-Olivares in the 1620s OTL.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Finished my masters (successfully) - yay - moved, and am now currently one of the great unemployed - aw - but hopefully I'll be around more.

Congrats buddy (on the masters part). Wondered why we don't see you around.

If it's alright with you, I'll start with Felipe III living longer. It MIGHT not look very different to OTL (beyond with Lerma ipv Olivares). Felipe III was unbendingly Catholic, one historian writes that this was what set Felipe II apart from his son/grandson of the same name. Felipe was Catholic and refused to tolerate Protestantism, but he was pragmatic. If it was within his interests, he could be flexible (in England, Felipe II was the voice of reason to try and persuade Mary FROM doing a lot of what earned her the nickname "Bloody"; likewise, he prevented the pope from excommunicating Elizabeth because a pro-French Mary Stuart would NOT have been a friend to Spain). To Felipe III/IV this order was reversed: church first, state second.

Plus, D. Felipe III's brother-in-law to Emperor Ferdinand II (by his first marriage as well as by Eleonora's brother's wedding to Ferdinand's sisters). Chances are good that Felipe III will get involved (perhaps even MORE than Felipe IV who really had no reason to get involved outside the Netherlands beyond familial obligation). What this might mean is that the Habsburgs TTL are in a rather different boat to OTL.

As to the marriage, it will be useful to Spain to get some "fresh" blood in (closest common relative of Felipe-Eleonora would be Juana la Loca, through her great-grandmother, Kristina of Denmark, and their shared Enriquez ancestry via Leonor de Toledo and Fernando II's mom). A joke would be if Felipe IV's the son to die, which would leave Carlos/Fernando. Both would be TOO young for Élisabeth de France (who might wind up as Queen of England here, since Felipe III would "never" go for that Spanish marriage nonsense - not even to screw around with James of England). So Felipe III marries Eleonora in 1615, while his daughter D. Ana still weds Louis XIII.

@Comte de Dordogne @alexmilman @VVD0D95 @Jan Olbracht @isabella @Valena

 

[VVD0D95]

Hi all,

Sorry for the long radio silence. RL got in the way this last year. Finished my masters (successfully) - yay - moved, and am now currently one of the great unemployed - aw - but hopefully I'll be around more.

Inspired by a convo I had with @Vitruvius a while back, what if Felipe III remarried? OTL he didn't and from what I can find, there were two candidates offered for him: Eleonora Gonzaga (niece of Maria de Medici, Queen-Consort of France; sister to the duchess of Lorraine, OTL empress) and Eleonora de Medici (daughter of Ferdinando I of Tuscany and Christine of Lorraine).

Now, Eleonora de Medici was kept single so long as the possibility of her marrying D. Felipe III was there. Unfortunately, this didn't happen and Eleonora later died of smallpox, unwed.

What if Felipe III had married Eleonora? I can't think that this would be entirely ASB. Just let one of his three surviving sons die, that the dynasty looks a little less secure and I could definitely see him remarrying. IIRC Felipe III didn't particularly like his Savoyard half-nephews who, until his eldest child's birth, were his heirs-presumptive (we're ignoring the possibility of a Queen Isabel II, but since she had no children, the Savoyards would've wound up ruling Spain eventaully), regarding them as overly ambitious by half. When his eldest son was born, he forced the Savoyard princes in residence in Madrid (Emanuele Filiberto and one of the others) to walk in the baptismal procession in a way as to underline their displacement as his heirs.

So, what if Felipe III remarries and has a few more kids (in this scenario Eleonora would live longer than OTL). Maybe Felipe III also lives longer? IDK what killed him OTL, but he died comparatively young to his father and eldest son. Not saying that Felipe III living longer will be "great" for Spain, but it'd be interesting to see the route he takes compared to his son-Olivares in the 1620s OTL.

Firstly congrats on the masters! And welcome to unemployment, would like some popcorn?

As to consequences, I think I agree with @Kellan Sullivan as to what he's said, I think there'd be a higher chance of an English marriage going here, due to Felipe III not screwing around quite so much as his son did. It also probably means healthier spares in case something happens to his three main sons.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

think there'd be a higher chance of an English marriage going here, due to Felipe III not screwing around quite so much as his son did. I

As in Charles marrying Maria of Spain? Or Charles marrying Élisabeth? Because, as I said, I DON'T see Felipe III going with that due to Charles' Protestantism. HOWEVER, what I COULD see happening is that Felipe III OUTRIGHT rejects the suit (sparing Charles a year's stay in Madrid). And a miffed James is approached by Maria de Medici for a match between Élisabeth and Charles. It's not because she WANTS to piss of Spain/Habsburgs, but there aren't a whole lot of ROYAL candidates of age with Élise (PLUS IIRC she WAS Elizabeth I's goddaughter), the Habsburgs have no one; Savoy is ONLY a duke, not the sort of rank for a Madame Royale; Wladek of Poland is an option, but he's more interested in pursuing Eleonore of Brandenburg ATM. So it'd be Charles or Maria would have to settle for a sovereign duke.

 

[VVD0D95]

As in Charles marrying Maria of Spain? Or Charles marrying Élisabeth? Because, as I said, I DON'T see Felipe III going with that due to Charles' Protestantism. HOWEVER, what I COULD see happening is that Felipe III OUTRIGHT rejects the suit (sparing Charles a year's stay in Madrid). And a miffed James is approached by Maria de Medici for a match between Élisabeth and Charles. It's not because she WANTS to piss of Spain/Habsburgs, but there aren't a whole lot of ROYAL candidates of age with Élise (PLUS IIRC she WAS Elizabeth I's goddaughter), the Habsburgs have no one; Savoy is ONLY a duke, not the sort of rank for a Madame Royale; Wladek of Poland is an option, but he's more interested in pursuing Eleonore of Brandenburg ATM. So it'd be Charles or Maria would have to settle for a sovereign duke.

Elise for Charles, I think Felipe would be much more likely than his son to actually give an answer, rather than toy around and potentially fuck around.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Another interesting effect of no Spanish messing around with England would be no way that Buckingham could convince James I that a war with Spain is necessary. Spain refuses outright, its a cooling of relations between London and Madrid, not necessarily WAR, rather than the insulted/wounded pride card played OTL after a year's being strung along with nothing to show for it.

 

[VVD0D95]

Another interesting effect of no Spanish messing around with England would be no way that Buckingham could convince James I that a war with Spain is necessary. Spain refuses outright, its a cooling of relations between London and Madrid, not necessarily WAR, rather than the insulted/wounded pride card played OTL after a year's being strung along with nothing to show for it.

Which likely means no disastorous attempts on Cadiz, which probably means Buckingham isn't facing quite so many impeachment calls.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Which likely means no disastorous attempts on Cadiz, which probably means Buckingham isn't facing quite so many impeachment calls.

Not sure if THAT'll be a good or a bad thing.

OTOH, could also mean that England DOESN'T go to the aid of the Huguenots at La Rochelle to regain some "lost honour" as it were.

 

[VVD0D95]

Not sure if THAT'll be a good or a bad thing.

OTOH, could also mean that England DOESN'T go to the aid of the Huguenots at La Rochelle to regain some "lost honour" as it were.

Definitely, which is most likely a good thing, as England was badly exposed during that war and humiliated.

 

[Vitruvius]

Congrats on the Masters. I'll maybe take a swing at the other half of the POD, Eleonora de' Medici. Seems that Philip just never wanted to remarry but supposing he did I think it's reasonable to assume that a POD in 1612-13 allows him to live longer. He had apparently been in poor health the last couple of years of his life, one account attributes this to an illness contracted after a visit to Lisbon in 1619 to see his son receive oaths from the nobles as heir to the throne. So if that's true then its easy enough to assume that a different family life for a few years leading up that shifts things and he lives a number of years more. We don't have much to go on in assessing her but judging by her mother Christina and her sister Claudia I think it's reasonable to assume that she'd be fairly intelligent and capable.

So that leads me to this idea; she puts the notion into her husbands head that he should suggest her sister Claudia to Charles in place of her step daughter Maria Anna. It could be a win win win. Philip kicks in a little money for the dowry and formally sponsors the match elevating Claudia into a kind of ersatz infanta. He thus keeps England on side and prevents a French match but doesn't have to deal with his daughter marrying a Protestant. The Medici had earlier tried to match the middle daughter, Caterina de' Medici, to Henry Frederick so I'm sure they'd be game as it's incredibly prestigious and they've already done of lot of the legwork in lobbying the Pope for a dispensation and if Paul V won't cooperate they could just wait for Gregory XV. James would get a nice fat dowry and some kind of understanding with Spain. The Spanish occupation of the Palatinate would still be a tricky issue but maybe the money and the fact that James isn't wedding his son to an actual Habsburg allows him enough wiggle room to see it through.

 

[isabella]

As in Charles marrying Maria of Spain? Or Charles marrying Élisabeth? Because, as I said, I DON'T see Felipe III going with that due to Charles' Protestantism. HOWEVER, what I COULD see happening is that Felipe III OUTRIGHT rejects the suit (sparing Charles a year's stay in Madrid). And a miffed James is approached by Maria de Medici for a match between Élisabeth and Charles. It's not because she WANTS to piss of Spain/Habsburgs, but there aren't a whole lot of ROYAL candidates of age with Élise (PLUS IIRC she WAS Elizabeth I's goddaughter), the Habsburgs have no one; Savoy is ONLY a duke, not the sort of rank for a Madame Royale; Wladek of Poland is an option, but he's more interested in pursuing Eleonore of Brandenburg ATM. So it'd be Charles or Maria would have to settle for a sovereign duke.

Christine would be the one offered in England, as Elisabeth was already promised to Savoy. In OTL the matches were exchanged for the insistence of the Spanish Court who wanted the eldest daughter as Queen

Congrats on the Masters. I'll maybe take a swing at the other half of the POD, Eleonora de' Medici. Seems that Philip just never wanted to remarry but supposing he did I think it's reasonable to assume that a POD in 1612-13 allows him to live longer. He had apparently been in poor health the last couple of years of his life, one account attributes this to an illness contracted after a visit to Lisbon in 1619 to see his son receive oaths from the nobles as heir to the throne. So if that's true then its easy enough to assume that a different family life for a few years leading up that shifts things and he lives a number of years more. We don't have much to go on in assessing her but judging by her mother Christina and her sister Claudia I think it's reasonable to assume that she'd be fairly intelligent and capable.

So that leads me to this idea; she puts the notion into her husbands head that he should suggest her sister Claudia to Charles in place of her step daughter Maria Anna. It could be a win win win. Philip kicks in a little money for the dowry and formally sponsors the match elevating Claudia into a kind of ersatz infanta. He thus keeps England on side and prevents a French match but doesn't have to deal with his daughter marrying a Protestant. The Medici had earlier tried to match the middle daughter, Caterina de' Medici, to Henry Frederick so I'm sure they'd be game as it's incredibly prestigious and they've already done of lot of the legwork in lobbying the Pope for a dispensation and if Paul V won't cooperate they could just wait for Gregory XV. James would get a nice fat dowry and some kind of understanding with Spain. The Spanish occupation of the Palatinate would still be a tricky issue but maybe the money and the fact that James isn't wedding his son to an actual Habsburg allows him enough wiggle room to see it through.

Claudia de’ Medici as wife for Charles II of England sound interesting... Sister-in-law is not as good as a daughter but if the other two girls are already more or less promised elsewhere (as they were) that would still be an alliance and a worthy match (plus maybe the next generation would be more lucky in getting an infanta)

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Christine would be the one offered in England, as Elisabeth was already promised to Savoy. In OTL the matches were exchanged for the insistence of the Spanish Court who wanted the eldest daughter as Queen

Any particular reason the English wouldn't do something similar? I know France has the whole 100YW as a reason to NOT agree to this, but would they run the risk of insulting/alienating England?

 

[isabella]

Any particular reason the English wouldn't do something similar? I know France has the whole 100YW as a reason to NOT agree to this, but would they run the risk of insulting/alienating England?

Because the girl is already engaged and what England want is a bride and so will not risk to alienating both France and Savoy when he girl available is not too young for their future King, specially considering who England is already problematic for the religious question...

 

[JonasResende]

Firstly congrats on the masters! And welcome to unemployment, would like some popcorn?

Or as my professor asked in one class:

A masters student, someone with a degree in philosophy and an extra large pizza with everything. Which one can feed a family of four?

The pizza

Congrats buddy (on the masters part). Wondered why we don't see you around.

Congrats on the Masters.

Thank you for your kind words

 

[JonasResende]

To summarize:

• We're unlikely to see a Spanish Match with protracted negotiations.
• Charles I will wind up married to Christine de France/Claudia de Medici. Élisabeth de France marries the duke of Savoy; and if Charles marries Claudia the Medici of the next generation are butterflied, while Leopold V might get to marry his original intended, Magdalene of Bavaria
• Buckingham is not impeached, no English trying to redeem themselves as"defender of Protestantism" by its foolhardy ventures to Cadiz and La Rochelle.
• Wonder what this will mean for the 30YW though?

 

[Vitruvius]

To summarize:

• Charles I will wind up married to Christine de France/Claudia de Medici. Élisabeth de France marries the duke of Savoy; and if Charles marries Claudia the Medici of the next generation are butterflied, while Leopold V might get to marry his original intended, Magdalene of Bavaria
• Wonder what this will mean for the 30YW though?

The POD wouldn't really allow for Leopold to marry Magdalene. That was mooted with her marriage to Wolfgang William in 1613. He married Claudia because she was no longer and option. And he really can't marry before the early to mid 1620s as he didn't leave the church until his brother had agreed to allot him a part of the Habsburg family patrimony which Ferdinand could only do after he succeeded Matthias as Emperor in 1619. I've considered the problem in a different context (if Federico della Rovere had lived) and figured that if Claudia wasn't available Leopold's best bet was probably Maria Klara Theresia of Wartenberg, his maternal first cousin, the morganatic daughter of Leopold's uncle Ferdinand of Bavaria (and thus also a niece of Maximilian of Bavaria). Maybe if he really needed the Pope's permission and/or really wanted an Italian there was Urban VIII's niece Clarice Barberini but I find her unlikely. There's really no one else (Catholic and non-French) without waiting until about 1630 which given his age Leopold is not likely to do.

I think the 30YW starts out like OTL. Philip III authorized the intervention to support Ferdinand II in Bohemia and the Twelve Years Truce technically expired before his death, certainly he wasn't going to renew it. And really when you think about it Lerma fell several years before his death so power was already concentrating in the hands of Zuniga and his nephew Olivares who of course were the favourites of Philip IV so there should be some continuity with OTL policy unless something radical happens in Philip III's last few years. Lerma's nominal successor, his son the duque de Uceda, didn't have the abilities of his father and was easily outmaneuvered by the other two men. Its possible the Lerma stages some comeback late in Philip III's reign, perhaps if the court politics are thrown off vis a vis OTL by the presence of an influential Medici queen. Though it's unlikely.

The only other figure who might make a play would be Philip's nephew Emmanuel Philibert of Savoy who was an Admiral of Spain and in line to the throne before the birth of Philip's sons. He had ambitions but gave up quickly once Zuniga and Olivares consolidated their position. I'm not sure if Philip with Eleonora would be more favorable to him. IIRC the Medici didn't get on too well with the Savoys at the time in question. Though if there is a rapprochement between Emmanuel Philibert and Eleonora in Madrid their could be a marriage in Savoy between one of his brothers and her sister Claudia.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I think the 30YW starts out like OTL. Philip III authorized the intervention to support Ferdinand II in Bohemia and the Twelve Years Truce technically expired before his death, certainly he wasn't going to renew it. And really when you think about it Lerma fell several years before his death so power was already concentrating in the hands of Zuniga and his nephew Olivares who of course were the favourites of Philip IV so there should be some continuity with OTL policy unless something radical happens in Philip III's last few years. Lerma's nominal successor, his son the duque de Uceda, didn't have the abilities of his father and was easily outmaneuvered by the other two men. Its possible the Lerma stages some comeback late in Philip III's reign, perhaps if the court politics are thrown off vis a vis OTL by the presence of an influential Medici queen. Though it's unlikely

Unlikely that Eleonora will be influential (since I imagine that that might depend on whether or not she can give Felipe children/sons or not) or that she will advocate for Lerma's return?

 

[Vitruvius]

I think its really hard to say what role or influence Eleonora would have as we know almost nothing about her. She's kind of a blank slate so you could imagine a number of plausible scenarios.

Since Philip already had 3 living sons that wouldn't give her any leverage. On the other hand Philip was prone to deferring to favourites so he could possibly be swayed by a strong willed wife, maybe. I think you could make a plausible argument that she could be at least influential enough to advance her family's interests but I'm not sure about anything beyond that. It's really really hard to see Lerma returning. If Eleonora did have a rapport/relationship with Lerma or with Emmanuel Philibert maybe she could advance their interests but I'd still put my money on Zuniga and Olivares advancing to the fore, perhaps even by cozying up the Medici Queen.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Since Philip already had 3 living sons that wouldn't give her any leverage.

What if Felipe III had married Eleonora? I can't think that this would be entirely ASB. Just let one of his three surviving sons die, that the dynasty looks a little less secure

A joke would be if Felipe IV's the son to die, which would leave Carlos/Fernando. Both would be TOO young for Élisabeth de France

Eleonora did have a rapport/relationship with Lerma or with Emmanuel Philibert maybe she could advance their interests but I'd still put my money on Zuniga and Olivares advancing to the fore, perhaps even by cozying up the Medici Queen

Which means, depending on her relationship with her daughter-in-law (whomever she may be), we might see the princess of Asturias' backing Olivares/Zuñiga if she and Eleonora don't get on, no?

 

[Vitruvius]

Yeah, that could happen. I kind of assumed that Lerma would be close to Eleonora and vice versa for a couple reasons. One, I assume that he would have been responsible for negotiating the marriage since Philip III loathed the work of Kingship and apparently wasn't too keen on remarrying OTL so if he did ITTL it would fall to Lerma as his valido to handle it. Two, Lerma's power derived almost entirely from his personal relationship to the King so I assume he would be smart enough to keep the new Queen on side lest she pull the King in another direction. Three, Olivares retired to his family estate in 1609 when he was denied a post at court and didn't return to Madrid until he had gained a posting in the Prince of Asturias' new household in 1615 (the future Philip IV was granted a large household upon his marriage to Elisabeth of France). So Olivares would have been away during the early years of Eleonora's marriage.

On the other hand if Lerma feels threatened by Eleonora or otherwise doesn't get along with her Olivares might be a natural ally for her. He spent his youth in Italy and had an affinity for Italian culture (admittedly not all that unique given Spain's connections to Italy) and he was already associating himself with the enemies of Lerma. A battle formed between Lerma's supporters in the Prince's household and those allied with the King's confessor, Aliaga, who ironically included Lerma's own sons. Olivares threw in with the later and when Aliaga broke Lerma's influence with the King their party triumphed though it was ultimately Olivares who benefited the most.

It's possible such a battle could extend to Queen Eleonora's household as well which could result in any number of possible outcomes. I'd guess Eleonora is going to be be swayed by the nature of her relationship with Lerma and possible rivalry for influence with the King on the one hand and by Aliaga's opinion of her on the other. He was a strict moralist and previously of favourite of Queen Margaret so perhaps he tries to poison the King against her if he decides she's a bad seed. Thus she could be driven to side with Lerma.