WI: Felipe II and Anna of Austria’s Second Son

OTL, Felipe II’s only marriage that gave him more than one son was his last marriage, which also just happened to be his niece. Unfortunately, only one of these boys survived, and later became king of Spain as Felipe III.

The boys were:

Fernando (b.1571, d.1578)

Carlos Lorenzo (b.1573, d.1575)

Diego Felix (b.1575, d.1582)

Felipe III (b.1578)

Now, the elder four boys all seemed to have died by fluke accident, rather than genetic problems from mom being dad’s niece. Fernando died of dysentery, Carlos Lorenzo (the only one of Felipe’s sons who never held the title of Prince of the Asturias) died of influenza; the news of Carlos Lorenzo’s death caused Anna of Austria to go into shock, and she gave birth prematurely to Diego Felix, who later died of (variously) smallpox or chicken pox.

This left Felipe III as the last infante standing.

Also OTL, when the Treaty of Oñate was drawn up, it recognized the fact that should Holy Roman Emperor Maximilian II’s sons all die childless (which they did), the next heir to the crowns of Hungary and Bohemia, was through the distaff line of his eldest daughter, the same Anna who was Felipe III’s mother. As a solution to this problem, the Spanish Habsburgs agreed to the terms that there should only be one Habsburg candidate for the Imperial throne, and in return for them giving up Bohemia/Hungary, they were supposed to get some land bordering on their Burgundian territories that belonged to the Imperial line IIRC.

How would this play out if Felipe II and Anna’s marriage leaves two surviving sons? Obviously, with a POD at earliest in 1575, this could change a great deal of things, but let’s suppose that things play out more or less as OTL, and that by the 1610s, none of the sons of Maximilian II have surviving issue. The next heir is thus the adult Infante Felipe (who’s possibly married already if he’s not in the church), unless Felipe II’s partitioned his realm – Fernando/Carlos/Diego gets Spain, Portugal and Italy; Felipe gets Burgundy.

Would Spain still agree to an alt-Oñate Treaty? Or would Felipe (who from what I’ve read, was as hyper-Catholic as OTL’s Emperor Ferdinand II) inherit the royal crowns (perhaps on condition he votes for his cousin/brother-in-law), while the Inner Austrian branch gets the Imperial diadem? What would Spain have to give up if Felipe were to inherit Bohemia/Hungary? And would the Inner Austrian line consent to it?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I'm thinking that the butterflies are going to upset things well before we get to Onate. Ernst didn't go to the Netherlands until 1594, and Albert as his replacement not until 1596. Now Philip will have at least two sons healthy sons in 1594 the eldest in his twenties and the youngest, Philip, would be 16. So would there ever be any expectation that Isabella Clara Eugenia would be given the Netherlands? If not would Ernst still go and if he did but still dies in 1595 would Albert leave the church to marry her without the plan to be given the Netherlands? I see the logic in having her marry a son of Maximilian II, and it's not going to be Rudolf (because he won't marry anyone) or Matthias (because Philip dislikes him) and Ernst is dead and Albert and Maximilian are in the church so without the impetus to found a new branch of the dynasty the marriage seems less a sure thing. So would Philip send a younger son to the Netherlands in 1596 along with Albert as his tutor/regent/governor/mentor? That would probably free up Albert to return to Spain and resume his duties as Archbishop of Toledo as soon as a Truce is made with the Dutch. Alternatively if he's not tied down in the Netherlands that frees him up to get involved in Austria again when his brothers Rudolf, Matthias and Maximilian begin to quarrel.

I'm not sure that solves the problem of succession since Matthias was the only one of the bunch to marry and I don't think this necessarily changes his odds but the deck is definitely stacked differently. I'm think in particular about how the brothers quarrel plays out in Hungary and Bohemia. If the rebellions there play out differently of not at all then the succession to those thrones might work differently, after all they're nominally elected but political exigencies typically dictated who got the throne. Anyways I'd still think Spain, even with a realistically long term partition of the Netherlands as a separate realm, would still prefer Further Austria to Hungary or Bohemia. Maybe if there are three sons and Philip wanted to setup one in Spain and Italy, one in the Netherlands and one in Bohemia and Hungary but then that seems to setup the latter two in inevitable competition with each other and their Austrian cousins for the Imperial crown. I think the smart move is what happened OTL, give up Bohemia and Hungary for Alsace. I'd say maybe try for an Imperial election but being Emperor at such a volatile time for the HRE would be a challenge for the Burgundian Habsburgs, with France breathing down their neck and unfinished business with the Dutch. Another question I don't have an answer to would be the fate of Isabella Clara Eugenia if she doesn't marry Albert.
 
I'm thinking that the butterflies are going to upset things well before we get to Onate. Ernst didn't go to the Netherlands until 1594, and Albert as his replacement not until 1596. Now Philip will have at least two sons healthy sons in 1594 the eldest in his twenties and the youngest, Philip, would be 16. So would there ever be any expectation that Isabella Clara Eugenia would be given the Netherlands? If not would Ernst still go and if he did but still dies in 1595 would Albert leave the church to marry her without the plan to be given the Netherlands? I see the logic in having her marry a son of Maximilian II, and it's not going to be Rudolf (because he won't marry anyone) or Matthias (because Philip dislikes him) and Ernst is dead and Albert and Maximilian are in the church so without the impetus to found a new branch of the dynasty the marriage seems less a sure thing. So would Philip send a younger son to the Netherlands in 1596 along with Albert as his tutor/regent/governor/mentor? That would probably free up Albert to return to Spain and resume his duties as Archbishop of Toledo as soon as a Truce is made with the Dutch. Alternatively if he's not tied down in the Netherlands that frees him up to get involved in Austria again when his brothers Rudolf, Matthias and Maximilian begin to quarrel.

I'm not sure that solves the problem of succession since Matthias was the only one of the bunch to marry and I don't think this necessarily changes his odds but the deck is definitely stacked differently. I'm think in particular about how the brothers quarrel plays out in Hungary and Bohemia. If the rebellions there play out differently of not at all then the succession to those thrones might work differently, after all they're nominally elected but political exigencies typically dictated who got the throne. Anyways I'd still think Spain, even with a realistically long term partition of the Netherlands as a separate realm, would still prefer Further Austria to Hungary or Bohemia. Maybe if there are three sons and Philip wanted to setup one in Spain and Italy, one in the Netherlands and one in Bohemia and Hungary but then that seems to setup the latter two in inevitable competition with each other and their Austrian cousins for the Imperial crown. I think the smart move is what happened OTL, give up Bohemia and Hungary for Alsace. I'd say maybe try for an Imperial election but being Emperor at such a volatile time for the HRE would be a challenge for the Burgundian Habsburgs, with France breathing down their neck and unfinished business with the Dutch. Another question I don't have an answer to would be the fate of Isabella Clara Eugenia if she doesn't marry Albert.

I wonder about Isabel, too. Is there any chance that Felipe could successfully install her as queen of France? Maybe marry her to a French husband to solidify her rule? Or, we might still see Albrecht being released from his cardinal's skirts, as a way of Felipe making nice with the imperial branch (maybe Albrecht moves another place or two up in the succession), he bestows Isabel on him. He doesn't have to give anything away (except a dowry). I read somewhere, can't remember the source, that part of the reason that Felipe dithered so long with Isabel was because he, having lost so many sons to the grave, considered her as a neat back-up if Felipe III should die young. Here, with another heartbeat between her and the succession, he might marry her off earlier (say to Ernst? Or a member of the house of Capet if they're claiming the French throne for her)
 
How might Felipe having two sons affect his relationship with the Imperial branch? Would he attempt to marry at least one (if not both) of the boys into the Imperial/Inner Austrian branch, sort of as a way of papering over differences?

As to Isabel, could she not be appointed vicereine of Naples/Portugal/Sicily/Sardinia/insert kingdom here, with a similar treaty of inheritance for her and her Habsburg husband's offspring as for the Netherlands, OTL? Or would she simply have the viceregency alone with no prospect of it being inherited?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I can't imagine Philip would want to spin off Portugal or Spanish Italy, he only just fought to acquire the former. And unlike the Netherlands none were really rebelling against Spanish rule. Portugal was mostly quiet until the late 1630s when it was forced to bear the costs of the war against the French and Dutch. Maybe he gives her Milan, as Northern Italy holds less value if the Spanish Road loses importance if the Netherlands go their separate way. But I'm not sure about even that because Milan would be a pretty tempting target for France.

I could definitely see her as Vicreine though, maybe once Henry secures France and Philip has to give up any notion of putting her on the French throne he makes her Vicreine of Portugal to keep her close to home but give her a respectable position. She could end up never marrying.
 
Would be cool - if rather unlikely (I know with Felipe II - unlike with his son and grandson - his stance on religion outside his realms was dictated by politics, not his politics by religion, so maybe it's possible), is that Felipe decides that he still wants Isabel as queen of France, and when the nullification of Henri IV's marriage comes up, he pushes his spinster daughter forward. Henri accepts - perhaps because of Isabel's substantial dowry or maybe to get Felipe to use his influence in Rome to speed up the process. Hell, I could see Felipe even offering to support Henri with a ready-to-hand unmarried daughter and a papal annulment, all Henri has to do is convert and secure the throne of France.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
That thought had occurred to me I just thought it was kind of unlikely, if only because of the tricky timing. By the time Henry is in a strong enough position that Philip will have to recognize his claim Henry really doesn't need the marriage for legitimacy or to secure his position so there's less motivation on his part to go along. So kind of a catch 22. I think you'd need Philip to seek a compromise much earlier when Henry would jump at the offer. Maybe the catholic league breaks with Spain or England gets more involved and Philip sees a pragmatic deal with Henry as the best option.

Also, not for nothing, while I'd assume that the Pope would go along if Philip approved, annulling your marriage to marry your wife's niece isn't exactly a pillar of Christian virtue. But then again marrying your own niece is pretty gross and that happened all the time so who knows.
 
I can't imagine Philip would want to spin off Portugal or Spanish Italy, he only just fought to acquire the former. And unlike the Netherlands none were really rebelling against Spanish rule. Portugal was mostly quiet until the late 1630s when it was forced to bear the costs of the war against the French and Dutch. Maybe he gives her Milan, as Northern Italy holds less value if the Spanish Road loses importance if the Netherlands go their separate way. But I'm not sure about even that because Milan would be a pretty tempting target for France.

I could definitely see her as Vicreine though, maybe once Henry secures France and Philip has to give up any notion of putting her on the French throne he makes her Vicreine of Portugal to keep her close to home but give her a respectable position. She could end up never marrying.

I could see that happening. It leave poor Al out of a job, since he was "Stadtholder" of Portugal before going to the Netherlands IIRC, but Isabel could make for fun times there.

Would be cool - if rather unlikely (I know with Felipe II - unlike with his son and grandson - his stance on religion outside his realms was dictated by politics, not his politics by religion, so maybe it's possible), is that Felipe decides that he still wants Isabel as queen of France, and when the nullification of Henri IV's marriage comes up, he pushes his spinster daughter forward. Henri accepts - perhaps because of Isabel's substantial dowry or maybe to get Felipe to use his influence in Rome to speed up the process. Hell, I could see Felipe even offering to support Henri with a ready-to-hand unmarried daughter and a papal annulment, all Henri has to do is convert and secure the throne of France.
That thought had occurred to me I just thought it was kind of unlikely, if only because of the tricky timing. By the time Henry is in a strong enough position that Philip will have to recognize his claim Henry really doesn't need the marriage for legitimacy or to secure his position so there's less motivation on his part to go along. So kind of a catch 22. I think you'd need Philip to seek a compromise much earlier when Henry would jump at the offer. Maybe the catholic league breaks with Spain or England gets more involved and Philip sees a pragmatic deal with Henry as the best option.

Also, not for nothing, while I'd assume that the Pope would go along if Philip approved, annulling your marriage to marry your wife's niece isn't exactly a pillar of Christian virtue. But then again marrying your own niece is pretty gross and that happened all the time so who knows.

How's this for a situation: Henri III gets assassinated. Next claimant is Henri III of Navarre, Duc de Vendôme. However, because Navarre is so distantly related to the late king in the male line, and he's Protestant, the French aren't sure about his succession. Felipe II of Spain puts forward his eldest daughter (niece of Henri III of France), Isabel as queen of France. The French reject this outright, prefering the possibility of a native candidate - Navarre's uncle, Cardinal Charles de Bourbon or a member of the house of Lorraine/Guise. Felipe offers his daughter in marriage to whomever (Navarre, Cardinal de Bourbon, the member of the house of Lorraine/Guise) succeeds to the throne. One problem: Navarre is married, the Cardinal can't marry and the Lorraines/Guises are playing on their right to the throne by descent from Charlemagne. Navarre approaches Felipe, offers to convert if Felipe will see to it that his childless marriage is annulled, so that he can marry Isabel (not kidding, but Catherine de Medicis attempted to do just this before she died - except her intention was to replace Margot with Christine of Lorraine OTL Grand Duchess of Tuscany, so Christian virtue be damned).

OTL Henri married Marie de Medicis for her massive dowry and her uncle's influence in Rome in getting Henri's conversion and marriage through, so him marrying Isabel for the same reason doesn't sound too unreasonable. That said, I know about Isabel's irregular periods and all, but in 1589, she's 23yo, and more likely to be able to produce at least one living child (as opposed to her OTL marriage at 33yo, and the birth of kids at upwards of 35yo).
 
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